The Chubb-Hub Yardage Delivery Service

[The Human Q-Tip]

In terms of a runningback’s value in the running game, Chubb is the best in the NFL right now, and maybe the best since prime Jamal Lewis. His ability to gain yards after contact is so great that he ostensibly can gain those yards with a replacement-level offensive line. Teams either have to let Chubb abuse them or sell-out to stop the run, opening up the passing game.

The question is twofold. First, how much of a beating can Chubb take? The problem for a lot of these guys is they get hurt and are never the same.

And second, how valuable is Chubb compared to the alternative option? I think we’ll know more about that question as we see Stefanski call plays.

Either way, if I am the Browns then I am franchise tagging him for two years no matter what.

I'm not sure how much weight we should give this, but there also is something just fun as hell about watching him play football. A 15 yard run where he's gashing the defense and busting through tackles just feels different than a 15 yard out to a WR. And players seem to sense that as well. It may be because the running game sometimes feels more easily repeatable/reproduceable. If a play worked, and the defense doesn't change anything...it's probably going to work the next time too. There isn't as much of an issue of precise timing that there is with a passing play, or the "matter of inches" between a good pass and a bad one, etc.. If you're opening holes, and you've got Chubb running the ball...you're going to have consistent success in the running game.

He does remind me a lot of Jamal Lewis, except I think Chubb is actually faster in the open field. It's his ability to get those breakaway runs that really surprised me. You don't really see that much in the NFL. But he's got such strength that missed tackles/arm tackles don't seem to slow him down much, and that gives him such a jump on the DB's that they just can't catch him.

He's just fun as hell to watch, and seems like a great guy as well.

 

[Jack Brickman]

I read how great Chubb is...then I hear all the talk about how the RB position really doesn't matter than much, that any decent back can be successful with the right scheme and decent blocking, so it doesn't make sense to spend a lot on it. Thing is, I agree in principle with the latter point. But sometimes, you have to say "screw principle". Chubb is a monster, and his yards after contact make the running game a threat even if the blocking isn't all that great.

He's a difference maker, and his performance isn't just what you'd get with any decent running back in that system. He's special.

Chubb is an elite runner. I don't think anyone would deny that. And an elite runner can look good in a bad system and great in a good system. The issue is that RB isn't as valuable relative to other positions. Overpaying a RB, even a stud RB, can set your team back because you could be using that money on positions that have a greater impact on your ability to win football games.

I'd also add that a good system can compensate for a mediocre RB, which is why the position matters less today than it did ten years ago. The NFL is smarter, and a lot more teams have decent to good coaching, which minimizes the talent level teams need at the position. Sure, it's always better to have a star than a non-star, but if your system is good enough to make non-stars look like studs, why would you overpay to keep a star? That's the problem NFL GMs have to solve.

But look at the Panthers last year. CMC shattered records and had one of the greatest individual seasons at the RB position of all time. The team went 5-11.

ETA: What it boils down to, I guess, is the saying that "RB doesn't matter," which I think is false. You still need talent at the position. The best system in the world isn't going to turn a shitty player into a superstar. Guys still need talent. You just don't necessarily need elite talent if you've got a smart coach and a good offensive line. So it should not be that RB doesn't matter, but rather that it matters significantly less than it did in the past, which is why so few of these guys are getting paid any more.

 

[Jordan]

I'm not sure how much weight we should give this, but there also is something just fun as hell about watching him play football. A 15 yard run where he's gashing the defense and busting through tackles just feels different than a 15 yard out to a WR. And players seem to sense that as well. It may be because the running game sometimes feels more easily repeatable/reproduceable. If a play worked, and the defense doesn't change anything...it's probably going to work the next time too. There isn't as much of an issue of precise timing that there is with a passing play, or the "matter of inches" between a good pass and a bad one, etc.. If you're opening holes, and you've got Chubb running the ball...you're going to have consistent success in the running game.

He does remind me a lot of Jamal Lewis, except I think Chubb is actually faster in the open field. It's his ability to get those breakaway runs that really surprised me. You don't really see that much in the NFL. But he's got such strength that missed tackles/arm tackles don't seem to slow him down much, and that gives him such a jump on the DB's that they just can't catch him.

He's just fun as hell to watch, and seems like a great guy as well.

I 100% agree. My stepdad and I had this conversation. At some point, football is about entertainment, and Chubb provides that more than any Brown during my lifetime. I think he will be even more fun in Stefanski’s offense.

Also, part of me wonders if a guy like Chubb has even more value now that linebackers are smaller, teams run 425 instead of base, and defenses are keeping more players in the secondary. It’s not dissimilar to Todd Gurley in 2017 and 2018. The difference is that I think Chubb is even less dependent on his offensive line.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

I 100% agree. My stepdad and I had this conversation. At some point, football is about entertainment, and Chubb provides that more than any Brown during my lifetime. I think he will be even more fun in Stefanski’s offense.

Also, part of me wonders if a guy like Chubb has even more value now that linebackers are smaller, teams run 425 instead of base, and defenses are keeping more players in the secondary. It’s not dissimilar to Todd Gurley in 2017 and 2018. The difference is that I think Chubb is even less dependent on his offensive line.

So... this is going to sound incredibly hyperbolic... but I think Chubb has a shot at MVP this season.

You see the way running the ball is blowing up these modern stop-the-pass defenses. It's working for New England, LAR, San Fan, Baltimore... you put our offensive line (which should be absolutely elite) with Nick Chubb, and Kevin Stefanski's playcalling system, which not only utilizes effective run plays, but calls them at high volume... I'm just very, very high on Chubb's output this year.

If he can stay healthy, not lose too many touches to Hunt, and show the vision needed to thrive in a zone running scheme, the sky is the limit. If I had to put money on someone leading the league in rushing this year, I think Chubb is my bet.

 

[Jordan]

So... this is going to sound incredibly hyperbolic... but I think Chubb has a shot at MVP this season.

You see the way running the ball is blowing up these modern stop-the-pass defenses. It's working for New England, LAR, San Fan, Baltimore... you put our offensive line (which should be absolutely elite) with Nick Chubb, and Kevin Stefanski's playcalling system, which not only utilizes effective run plays, but calls them at high volume... I'm just very, very high on Chubb's output this year.

If he can stay healthy, not lose too many touches to Hunt, and show the vision needed to thrive in a zone running scheme, the sky is the limit. If I had to put money on someone leading the league in rushing this year, I think Chubb is my bet.

I don’t think it’s hyperbolic at all. Chubb should be the rushing leader this year. I could also see him being in the MVP race, especially if the Browns are winning. If the team goes 10-6/11-5 and Chubb gets 2,000 rushing yards, yeah, he very likely could be MVP.

 

[Wrathe]

I read how great Chubb is...then I hear all the talk about how the RB position really doesn't matter than much, that any decent back can be successful with the right scheme and decent blocking, so it doesn't make sense to spend a lot on it. Thing is, I agree in principle with the latter point. But sometimes, you have to say "screw principle". Chubb is a monster, and his yards after contact make the running game a threat even if the blocking isn't all that great.

He's a difference maker, and his performance isn't just what you'd get with any decent running back in that system. He's special.

Agreed, and I do think overall RB's can be a product of the scheme. You see it when they chase $$ and change teams and their career basically dies. Then you have the few that are actually amazing talents. I think Chubb is the latter. If he were in Dallas, for example, he'd prolly be the top back in the league. His ability to find a lane and then just hit top speed like he does is so impressive.

 

[Amherstcavsfan]

I would absolutely put a cheeky bet on Nick Chubb being the MVP this year.

Kevin Stefanski has shown his colors somewhat in Minnesota. Stefanski is a guy who comes from that Shanny/Gary Kubiak style offense where the run/pass splits are going to be near 50/50. If Nick Chubb gets 400+ carries, it's not unreasonable to assume that he's getting to 2k yards. Hell, he might have a shot at the all time rushing record if his YPA holds.

 

[Jordan]

I would absolutely put a cheeky bet on Nick Chubb being the MVP this year.

Kevin Stefanski has shown his colors somewhat in Minnesota. Stefanski is a guy who comes from that Shanny/Gary Kubiak style offense where the run/pass splits are going to be near 50/50. If Nick Chubb gets 400+ carries, it's not unreasonable to assume that he's getting to 2k yards. Hell, he might have a shot at the all time rushing record if his YPA holds.

Yep.

For me, the issue Chubb may have has nothing to do with Kareem Hunt. Rather, if the Browns are winning, it means they will run the ball more to eat clock. In that case, he will more than likely hit 400+ carries, have the yardage, and be on a playoff team. If the team is losing, though, he will not have as many attempts.

 

[Amherstcavsfan]

Yep.

For me, the issue Chubb may have has nothing to do with Kareem Hunt. Rather, if the Browns are winning, it means they will run the ball more to eat clock. In that case, he will more than likely hit 400+ carries, have the yardage, and be on a playoff team. If the team is losing, though, he will not have as many attempts.

Right.

In the ideal offense, I'm not sure how many passing attempts Baker would have next year. Would he go over 500?

 

[Jordan]

Right.

In the ideal offense, I'm not sure how many passing attempts Baker would have next year. Would he go over 500?

Jimmy Garoppolo had 486 passing attempts last year. I think Baker’s ideal range is around that number. Anywhere from 450-500 signals that the team is winning and does not need to throw as much, which is what we want.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Yep.

For me, the issue Chubb may have has nothing to do with Kareem Hunt. Rather, if the Browns are winning, it means they will run the ball more to eat clock. In that case, he will more than likely hit 400+ carries, have the yardage, and be on a playoff team. If the team is losing, though, he will not have as many attempts.

I dunno. Other than the Ravens with Jackson, no other team had 500 total rushes. I have a really hard time seeing Chubb get 400, and Hunt only getting 100. Especially if they're in clock eating mode. I don't think the Browns will want to put all that extra wear and tear on a back of Chubb's ability when there is a very good alternative able to keep him fresh, and his carries down a bit. If we do reach 500 carries, I'd say a 350/150 split is probably pretty close to what we'd see.

 

[Binkster]

Chubb is okay to me.

I would have rather had Guice if he checked out.

I think he’s just bad

You wanna maybe revise these takes?

 

[Triplethreat]

You wanna maybe revise these takes?

Sure.

they were shit takes.

anything else you want?

 

[Binkster]

Sure.

they were shit takes.

anything else you want?

Nope, that's all. Thank you.

 

[Jack Brickman]

You wanna maybe revise these takes?

To be fair, Guice was an absolutely elite RB prospect. No way to know that he'd injure his knees 23 times in two years.