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RBF League 2023 - Gary Barnidge Classic!

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Should we make this a buy-in league for $25 each?

  • Yes

    Votes: 9 90.0%

  • No

    Votes: 1 10.0%
  • Total voters
    10
Also, bold prediction for this season: Adam Thielen finishes as a WR3 or lower.

Note that I won't take credit for this one if he has a season-ending injury early. This take is for a reasonably healthy season.
 
Jack Brickman said:
I mean, literally any player you draft could tear an ACL in practice tomorrow and be out for the season. That's fantasy football. Every player carries risk. Sure, some carry a bit more than others, but at this point I don't consider Allen to be one of them. And I don't think he's with the elite group of receivers more because he's never performed like one. He's a low-end WR1, high-end WR2 guy. A guy who averages less than 15PPG (.5 PPR), not a stud like Hopkins or Julio that can get up in the 17-20 PPG range every year.

All I know is that I'm not taking Allen until at least the third round and it has absolutely nothing to do with me being concerned about his injury risk. It's just the reality of his expected production.
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Maybe in a half PPR, but in a full PPR he’s in that group of second tier wideouts

Finished as WR12 last year and WR3 in 2017 in our league
 
The Wizard of Moz said:
Maybe in a half PPR, but in a full PPR he’s in that group of second tier wideouts

Finished as WR12 last year and WR3 in 2017 in our league
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Well yeah in full PPR those second-tier WRs get a bump over the tier 3 backs, particularly the ones that don't get as much passing work. My main league is .5 PPR though so I tend to default to that when discussing fantasy players.
 
Randolphkeys said:
The jinx is going to be attributed to your posts about his exceptional health, 1000%. Leave poor Moz out of what you have just done to Keenan Allen.
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I didn't say he had exceptional health. I said that I didn't think he was injury-prone because of injuries three and four years ago and I don't really understand why he still gets labeled as such. And if he does get hurt this year, it won't be because he's injury prone. It'll be because it's the NFL and every year a handful of star players get hurt. He might be one of them this year. He might not. But I'm not going to let fate's dice roll deter me from drafting him if he's there at an appropriate draft slot.
 
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Jack Brickman said:
Well yeah in full PPR those second-tier WRs get a bump over the tier 3 backs, particularly the ones that don't get as much passing work. My main league is .5 PPR though so I tend to default to that when discussing fantasy players.
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I also expect Allen to perform closer to 2017 than 2018 this year. Last year the chargers had less offensive plays than the previous 2 seasons as well as having a higher % of running plays. I think sans Gordon they’re a worse rushing team and worse team overall that will lead to them throwing the ball more

Pass attemptsRushes
2016580398
2017583419
2018512399

The difference of 70 less pass attempts pretty significantly hurts a high volume (or any) WR’s production.

Allen had 23 less targets last year than in 2017. In the last 2 years he has gotten 27.3 and 26.5% of his team’s targets. Take that percentage and if the chargers revert to the previous 2 season’s amount of attempts and it equates to about 19 more targets for Allen, Putting him right around 10/game. With volume like that I think he will be easily in the top 8

Now you can argue the less passing was due to Rivers aging, but I think it had more to do with winning more than they usually do and riding the ground game
 
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