Whatever the Kings got, the Cavs can’t get their hands around. The Cavs now drop to 11 losses in 16 attempts since 2016 against the Kings who have a 45.1% winning percentage over that time.
Weird result, weird game. The Cavs looked like they were on the verge of breaking the game open until Donovan Mitchell went down with an ankle injury that had fans holding their breath from Amherst to Ashtabula. The Cavs were up 6 when he went out and then were down 4 by the time he returned 6 minutes later.
The good news is Mitchell looked okay and played the entire fourth quarter. The bad news is his injury left the Cavs shell shocked and took any energy out of the building and out of the lineup.
We’ll get to the late game situation later, but bottom line is the Cavs didn’t play well enough and put the game in the refs’ hands. The refs fumbled the opportunities they had, point blank but the calls they made/didn’t made mattered because the Cavs didn’t do enough to put it out of their reach.
Two big topics of late have been rebounding and defense. The Cavs kept the rebounding battle even and held Domantas Sabonis to under 10 rebounds. Check. The Cavs had a dRTG of 125 and a second half dRTG of 139.1. Not a check.
The Kings “big three” combined for 92 of their 120 points. The Cavs core four combined for 61 of their 113 points. The Cavs have prided themselves on depth and strength in numbers but the core four cannot be outscored by a play-in team’s three best players by 31 points.
Sabonis had it going early and was a handful as he’s always been for the Cavs inside. He started the game 3-for-3 from the field, an and-one, a few rebounds and a few assists.
Mitchell was also aggressive from opening tip, literally. He took the opening tip right to the basket, and although unsuccessful, he matched Sabonis in his first shift of the night with 6 points, 2 rebounds, and 1 assist. He’s taken a back seat throughout the year to start the game, but he changed that approach against Sacramento.
Without Mitchell, the Cavs were just so-so to start the game. The non-starting lineups were a -5 in the first quarter despite the bench being a +7 in bench scoring. The bench has been a strength for the Cavs all year so the fact they couldn’t gain any ground on the Kings makes the Cavs margin for error a lot smaller.
It was great to see Ty Jerome back on the bench and back doing his thing. He ended up being huge for the Cavs late, but he also wasted little time in producing coming back from his absence. He had two of his patented paint field goals, a steal and an almost near steal.
Jerome is so good at anticipating steals off-ball and putting himself in positions to be disruptive. Even if it doesn’t lead to a steal directly, he’s good at off-ball help, especially dig downs in the post.
One thing that was apparent from the start, and continued throughout the entire game, was the Kings intentionality in turning defense into offense. They were 68th percentile in points per possession in transition and had 11 fast break points (19 in total for the game) in the first quarter alone.
The numbers are what the numbers are but the 31 first quarter points the Kings scored didn’t necessarily match the Cavs half court energy on defense. One thing that may have been inconsistent of late is their crispness from possession to possession, but it was there early on. Perhaps it was somewhat reflected in their dRTG of110 which would be good for 5th best over the course of a game in the NBA this year.
And perhaps that carried over into the 2Q where they posted a dRTG of 100 despite the Kings shooting 50% from the field. The Cavs held them to just 2 FTA, 1 3PM and cut down the fast break and points off turnovers from the first quarter.
Sabonis was the glue that held the Kings together from the start so when he went the bench is when the Cavs had their opportunity. After a bucket to start the quarter by the Kings, the Cavs rattled off a quick 6-0 that forced a Doug Christie timeout.
In five minutes with Sabonis on the bench in the 2Q, the Kings were a -3. While that’s a positive for the Cavs, usually when the opposing team’s best player sits, they’re able to make more out of it then they ended up doing for the 2Q.
After going down by 4 points, towards the beginning of the quarter, the Cavs went on a 10-0 run powered by Isaac Okoro. He had all 7 of his 2Q points in a one-minute span that again forced a Kings timeout.
The best part of the run is Okoro was doing it in all the ways you’d want a role player to do it: Drive off closeout, spot-up three, and putback layup off an offensive rebound. He tied Max Strus for a team best +11 for the quarter.
It’s becoming harder and harder to understand how Sam Merrill is the 8th man rotation and Okoro is the 9th/10th. Merrill is shooting a ghastly 37% FG and 32.1 3P% over his last 10, and as much as he’s improved his game in other areas those numbers are still not very playable. Compounding it is the fact that he’s playing with smaller guard backcourts and putting the Cavs at a significant size disadvantage.
The most used three guard lineup featuring Mitchell, Jerome and Merrill are giving up 123.4 points per 100 possessions which is 17th percentile (aka not good). That one has De’Andre Hunter at the PF spot and swap out hunter for Dean Wade and the points per 100 possessions allowed jumps to 112 which is not great but is slightly above average. Put Merrill with the core four on the floor and that number goes down to 101.8 points per possession allowed (which is very good).
Okoro’s 3P% over his last 10 hasn’t been much better (33% on significantly lower volume) which is perhaps keeping Kenny from making the change, but his size, defense and role player duties have all been showing. It’s hard to imagine Kenny making a change to his playoff rotation as of now but if he did it would be completely understandable and may even be warranted.
The Cavs were playing relatively well in the 2Q and looked to be on the right path despite Mitchell and Darius Garland combining for just 4 points on 7 shots and dishing out just 2 assists. Comparatively, the Cavs two bigs had 11 points on 7 shots and 2 assists.
But… the Kings went on a run to end the quarter that erased any cushion the Cavs had. Over the final 50 seconds, the Kings went 7-1 including a banked in three-point shot at the buzzer. It cut the Cavs lead to just one point heading into the locker room.
The Kings had 22 fast break points and 15 points off turnovers at half – those are hard numbers to overcome even if the Cavs dRTG for the first half was 112 and they limited Sacramento to just 4 3PM and 6 FTA. Those are things that keep teams in ballgames.
Whenever the Cavs want to get out of their shooting slump would be much appreciated. They made just 5 3PM at half and only matched it in the second half for 10 on the game. This is a team that would have 10 3PM in a half let alone in a game.
They seem to be creeping in the right direction going from 14.4 3PM per 100 possessions over their last 15 games to 14.5 over their last 10 games and 14.7 over their last 5 games but this is a team that was at 16.1 pre-All-Star break and was shooting 39.3% on 3s. Post All-Star break they’re at 35.7%. The Cavs shooting is like grease in an engine –apply the needed amounts and it’s working like a smooth, well-oiled machine. Don’t have enough, and you start to get some choking, and things begin to feel a bit wonky.
The third quarter is really before and after the Mitchell injury. Before, the Cavs seemed to be catching their grove with points on three straight possessions to begin the quarter while the Kings had not scored yet. The Cavs were up by six. Then, Mitchell’s injury happened.
It happened in a somewhat inconspicuous way behind the play, so people didn’t see the cause they just saw him writhing in play on the sideline. It had a monumental effect on the game as it sucked any life out of the building as fans and players alike wondered if this was something that would dash their playoff hopes.
The replay showed Mitchell turning his ankle pretty well which is good in the fact it’s likely just an ankle sprain but TBD on the bad pending how bad it is. After the game Kenny said he relied on how Mitchell felt on whether he could reenter and thankfully he felt good enough to return and make it a game.
The Kings scored their very next offensive possession and would score 23 points in the six minutes Mitchell was off the floor. The Cavs struggled to match that with just 13 points. By the time Mitchell returned, the Cavs were down 4 and reeling.
Over the last 6 minutes in the quarter, the Kings went on a 27 to 8 run to put them up by 12 going into the 4Q.
And right on cue, the Cavs dRTG for the 3Q was a putrid 152.2. I’m not sure what their defensive approach is coming out of the locker room but it’s one that consistently does not work, period.
The former Scottie Pippen and Michael Jordan Chicago duo of Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan made their mark with 22 points in the quarter. Unfortunately, they sustained that level of play into the 4Q as LaVine would connect on six consecutive shots over the 3Q and 4Q and did not miss a three-pointer (6-6) in the second half.
If there’s any question who the alpha is on the Cavs, the beginning of the 4Q should give you a pretty clear answer. On a hobbled ankle, Mitchell willed the Cavs back into the game with back-to-back and-one’s, a steal, and then founding Mobley for an and-one and an alley oop. They erased the bulk of the Kings lead with an 10-0 run all produced by Mitchell himself.
That is the type of run you would have liked to see Garland pull together when Mitchell went down. Understanding players are human and any time you see your guy go down like Mitchell did, and with the uncertainty looming, it can mess with you. But… as one of the leaders of the team that is where Garland must get the team to focus and lock in. Shit happens in the playoffs and the longer you dwell the deeper of a hole that is dug and that’s exactly what happened.
Garland’s play overall has been fine, and his per 48-minute numbers are on par with his season averages, but his shooting splits are taking a bit longer than expected to jump back to what we saw earlier in the year. He was just 4-for-13 on the game and only took one shot in the 3Q. Mitchell missed 6-7 minutes with a gimpy ankle, played half the minutes as Garland, and had one more shot than him. That’s unacceptable.
What feels like Garland not producing is not completely accurate, but he’s had just 2 20+ point games over his last 12 games. The somewhat explosive scoring has been somewhat muted. When the Cavs rely so much on their backcourt for scoring, sub-20-point games hits a bit different especially when he’s at 6.5 assists per game and not a double-digit figure.
Meanwhile, the Cavs alpha propelled the Cavs on a 20-6 run to the point off the Cavs taking the lead halfway through the quarter. Luckily, Mitchell had Jerome as his sidekick with 10 of his 20 points coming in the 4Q and all in one stretch. Jerome outscored the Kings 10-4 over a 2-minute stretch and helped preserve the Cavs 2-point lead at the time.
Unfortunately, DeRozan and LaVine were already warmed up and couldn’t cool down. They combined for 16 of the Kings final 22 points from the 7-minute mark and on. With the Cavs going small (Garland, Mitchell and Jerome; and then Okoro, Strus, Mitchell and Garland around Allen) it limited their options in defending DeRozan and LaVine. Strus did his best and knocked in a couple of incredibly lucky and incredibly important shots down the stretch, but the Cavs short closeouts were simply not enough.
The Cavs lost this game in the clutch, and that’s perhaps the most concerning part. While they’re 9th in clutch net rating since the All-Star break, they’re an incomprehensible -22.6 in the clutch over their last 15 games. In that span, they’re shooting 31% eFG and have a TOV% of 18.6%. Not only are they not making shots but they’re compounding it by making mistakes too.
And sure enough, clutch time bared these very fruits. Allen had a turnover followed by a wide-open spot-up three miss by Strus and a wide-open mid-range floater on Garland (if we want to be harsh, we’d mention Garland went 0-4 under 3 minutes including 0-3 3s). The opportunities were there, and the Cavs couldn’t take advantage of them.
In his post-game comments, Kenny called out the stretch of four consecutive offensive rebounds followed by three consecutive three-point misses as encapsulating the game. The opportunities were knocking but the Cavs just couldn’t answer the door.
A Jarrett Allen dunk ended up being the only points the Cavs scored the final 180 seconds of regulation.
Meanwhile, the Kings had some help and one of the buckets they scored should NOT have counted. Kenny had said the refs told him they couldn’t review it, which was confirmed after the game, but it was because the refs did not stop the game to review the play despite how close the play was. Being down 5 versus being down 3 under one minute is a huge difference.
Adding salt into the wound is the fact they changed a foul on a Mitchell three-point attempt based on a review that had his heel on the out of bounds line prior to shooting. They stopped the game and could review that but couldn’t review an illegally made basket (but can go back mid game and change a 3PM to a 2PM if a player’s foot is on the line) – make it make sense.
Let’s be clear: The Cavs should not have kept the game as close as it was. The Cavs had opportunities late to win the game (and didn’t execute). The refs caused a 5-point swing in a 5-point game. All things are true and all are equally disappointing.
It was an all-around disappointing loss with the Cavs having a chance to lock up homecourt throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs. Now the task still lingers and so will Mitchell’s ankle injury.
For whatever reason, in a game clearly needing some defensive size, Dean Wade got just 3 minutes. Maybe his illness acted up or something didn’t seem quite right but those simply not enough for a player of his defensive caliber with two perimeter players going off.
Even more so with the fact that Hunter was a team worst -28 on the game. Kenny cautioned not putting too much stock into one game’s plus-minus but that one is significant.
Despite Sabonis’s presence, the Cavs outscored the Kings in the paint 68 to 48. One thing the Cavs have down is lean on their interior presence of late to float them while their shooting comes around, but lack of late game execution, overall average shooting and inconsistent defense will sink them just as quick.
Speaking of Sabonis: He was held to under 10 rebounds for the first time in 8 games and just the 2nd time in the last 10 full games that he’s played. It’s just the 5th time this year that it’s happened (excluding injury shortened games).
The Cavs made 28% of their 39 jump shot attempts. If it wasn’t a layup, dunk or floater, they couldn’t make it.
The Cavs best lineup? Jerome, Mitchell, Merrill, Okoro and Mobley for a +15. The Cavs worst lineup? Jerome, Mitchell, Merrill, Hunter and Mobley for a -12.
Garland did lead the way with 17 points created off assists with Strus matching the 7 assists and 17 points created off assists. The only difference is Strus with 0 TOs and Garland with 3.
The Cavs were a +1 in the first half and a -8 in the second half. While not quite as aggressive as the Spurs game first and second half splits, it’s enough to say the Cavs need to play a full 48 minutes.
But, it was enough for Austin Carr to give an impassioned speech after the game about doing what they do over a full game and not being selective – it’s playoff time.
The Cavs have one more home game before hitting the road for a back-to-back. Mitchell’s injury is a prime example of the importance of wrapping up homecourt on Tuesday so the Cavs can put their starters in bubble wrap until the playoffs.
Up next: Tuesday at home against Chicago at 7:00PM(EST).
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