Real Browns Fans Articles

[Jordan]

I wrote about why I am not all that convinced in Baker's performance, however, am ecstatic about Stefanski's play-calling.

The Browns' Performance Through Week 2, Baker Mayfield, And Analytics - RealBrownsFans.com

There has been an ongoing theme since the Browns' drafted Baker Mayfield: we are

realbrownsfans.com

 

[Randolphkeys]

I wrote about why I am not all that convinced in Baker's performance, however, am ecstatic about Stefanski's play-calling.

The Browns' Performance Through Week 2, Baker Mayfield, And Analytics - RealBrownsFans.com

There has been an ongoing theme since the Browns' drafted Baker Mayfield: we are

realbrownsfans.com

Your last statement about the "points earned" metric from passing deserves a deeper dive. I would have thought the touchdown to OBJ would count.

 

[bob2the2nd]

I wrote about why I am not all that convinced in Baker's performance, however, am ecstatic about Stefanski's play-calling.

The Browns' Performance Through Week 2, Baker Mayfield, And Analytics - RealBrownsFans.com

There has been an ongoing theme since the Browns' drafted Baker Mayfield: we are

realbrownsfans.com

was Baker perfect, absolutely not. But he still played very well and his numbers reflect that. Overall I feel as though this article is extremely nitpicky of a solid B+ performance. The first play you go after him for not going through his progressions, the 2nd play you are upset he went through his progressions and didnt immediately see the blown coverage on OBJ. Overall he took 2 seconds (not 3) to watching his primary reads, before switching.

Furthermore the browns coaches have been told Baker to trust the play calls, which I at least translate to stick with the primary reads.



Does baker have his flaws? Absolutely. Did Baker play a perfect game? Not by any stretch but to put 9.5 Y/A, on 70% completion on his second start in a new system seems like a pretty decent game.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

was Baker perfect, absolutely not. But he still played very well and his numbers reflect that. Overall I feel as though this article is extremely nitpicky of a solid B+ performance. The first play you go after him for not going through his progressions, the 2nd play you are upset he went through his progressions and didnt immediately see the blown coverage on OBJ. Overall he took 2 seconds (not 3) to watching his primary reads, before switching.

Furthermore the browns coaches have been told Baker to trust the play calls, which I at least translate to stick with the primary reads.



Does baker have his flaws? Absolutely. Did Baker play a perfect game? Not by any stretch but to put 9.5 Y/A, on 70% completion on his second start in a new system seems like a pretty decent game.

Your points about Baker's play, like the speed of his progression, are good points.

But, the responses to a film breakdown with counting stats isn't really one I put any credence into. They just don't hold water.

 

[bob2the2nd]

Your points about Baker's play, like the speed of his progression, are good points.

But, the responses to a film breakdown with counting stats isn't really one I put any credence into. They just don't hold water.

Obviously I dont believe your argument is production on the field is irrelevant depending on how the player got there, but thats basically what you are saying here.


But if you want to go beyond the stats how about this; This was still only the 2nd game ever Baker has played in this system and did so on a short week. Over 4 days made enough corrections that he went from what seemed to be overall negative player (At best neutral) to an overall positive player. I dont believe that anyone was expecting a miracle overnight, and the fact he did improve his performance does attest to him getting better/more used to a new system. Yes absolutely Baker still needs to make corrections, but a lot of these "read" problems you have pointed out are a partially a function of extremely limited time in a brand new system. I feel as though its fair to point these things out as a function of things Baker should improve on, but ultimately complaining that any improvement over 4 days wasn't "anything more than marginal", is pretty harsh critism for a player that ultimately completed the task on hand.

 

[Jordan]

Obviously I dont believe your argument is production on the field is irrelevant depending on how the player got there, but thats basically what you are saying here.


But if you want to go beyond the stats how about this; This was still only the 2nd game ever Baker has played in this system and did so on a short week. Over 4 days made enough corrections that he went from what seemed to be overall negative player (At best neutral) to an overall positive player. I dont believe that anyone was expecting a miracle overnight, and the fact he did improve his performance does attest to him getting better/more used to a new system. Yes absolutely Baker still needs to make corrections, but a lot of these "read" problems you have pointed out are a partially a function of extremely limited time in a brand new system. I feel as though its fair to point these things out as a function of things Baker should improve on, but ultimately complaining that any improvement over 4 days wasn't "anything more than marginal", is pretty harsh critism for a player that ultimately completed the task on hand.

I would be more inclined to believe these are “new system” problems if: a) Baker’s previous 17 games did not show the same flaws; and b) if, like Arians’ deep pass offense, it historically took QBs time and in-game action to learn.

I think you are making fair points. I also think it’s fair to point out that a better defense beats Baker on both of those plays where I clipped video. Also, I can add more, but a lot of his game was like that.

was Baker perfect, absolutely not. But he still played very well and his numbers reflect that. Overall I feel as though this article is extremely nitpicky of a solid B+ performance. The first play you go after him for not going through his progressions, the 2nd play you are upset he went through his progressions and didnt immediately see the blown coverage on OBJ. Overall he took 2 seconds (not 3) to watching his primary reads, before switching.

Furthermore the browns coaches have been told Baker to trust the play calls, which I at least translate to stick with the primary reads.



Does baker have his flaws? Absolutely. Did Baker play a perfect game? Not by any stretch but to put 9.5 Y/A, on 70% completion on his second start in a new system seems like a pretty decent game.

yeah, that’s not what I was trying to say vis-a-vis reads (I even had the same quote in the article, LOL!). It is statistically improbable that even 50% of plays a QB hits their primary read. If they did, QB time before throws would be somewhere around 1-1.2 seconds.

Your last statement about the "points earned" metric from passing deserves a deeper dive. I would have thought the touchdown to OBJ would count.

It’s a weird one. I will write something up later. But basically, it splits points amongst all players involved. So while Baker did earn points on that, he lost them on other plays - especially against the Ravens.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Obviously I dont believe your argument is production on the field is irrelevant depending on how the player got there, but thats basically what you are saying here.


But if you want to go beyond the stats how about this; This was still only the 2nd game ever Baker has played in this system and did so on a short week. Over 4 days made enough corrections that he went from what seemed to be overall negative player (At best neutral) to an overall positive player. I dont believe that anyone was expecting a miracle overnight, and the fact he did improve his performance does attest to him getting better/more used to a new system. Yes absolutely Baker still needs to make corrections, but a lot of these "read" problems you have pointed out are a partially a function of extremely limited time in a brand new system. I feel as though its fair to point these things out as a function of things Baker should improve on, but ultimately complaining that any improvement over 4 days wasn't "anything more than marginal", is pretty harsh critism for a player that ultimately completed the task on hand.

Analysis of a player's actual abilities and contribution are an indicator of future success. Past production is not a good indicator of this.

I am saying it literally doesn't matter. Blake Bortles puts up a 400 yard game throwing underneath stuff against a prevent defense because his team was down the entire time? Cool. We still know who he is. He's not a good QB.

The team playing against the Jets blows a defensive coverage and Frank Gore rips off a 70-yard TD run? Cool. That doesn't mean he's all of a sudden a better RB.

Stats change play-by-play. Players don't. So... is Frank Gore all of a sudden a better player after that run? Of course not. So why should we tie our analysis of a player to those metrics? We're better than that.

A player puts up good results BECAUSE of abilities he has? Great--that's when those stats matter. So, the best we can do is filter out the noise (garbage stats) and try to analyze a player's ability.

You're entirely correct that Baker looked better in this game than he did in week 1. As I've said numerous times--I believe that Stefanski's system will put Baker in positions to succeed. I hope that being in a more positive situation allows Baker to grow and improve. Pointing out that he still has warts isn't saying he's dogshit--it's just pointing out areas that still need work.

One play that @Jordan didn't show that I think was egregious was this one (might want to watch a few times at half-speed to follow my description below):


If the NFL broke the link, the play begins at 2:12.

Baker's first read is to the right side of the field. He sees the safety, #24, turn his back away and run towards the left. He sees the linebacker run towards the line. He knows that his first read, OBJ, has one-on-one coverage with no help over the top.

OBJ beats his man off the line in the first step with the fake outside and step inside with the hand swipe. At this point, a better QB knows that this is six points. This is as automatic as it gets in the NFL. Baker comes off that read.

Sure, he scrambles to his left and runs for the first down. Sure, the drive ends up with a touchdown. So, the end statistical result is no difference. However, it's a glaring example of where Baker still needs to improve.

I hope that coaches picked this play out and showed him what he missed. I hope Baker learns from this and starts to read the field better. If he does that, the sky is the limit. I just want him to reach that potential so we can start wrecking the NFL like we thought we were going to do in his second year.

 

[bob2the2nd]

Analysis of a player's actual abilities and contribution are an indicator of future success. Past production is not a good indicator of this.

I am saying it literally doesn't matter. Blake Bortles puts up a 400 yard game throwing underneath stuff against a prevent defense because his team was down the entire time? Cool. We still know who he is. He's not a good QB.

The team playing against the Jets blows a defensive coverage and Frank Gore rips off a 70-yard TD run? Cool. That doesn't mean he's all of a sudden a better RB.

Stats change play-by-play. Players don't. So... is Frank Gore all of a sudden a better player after that run? Of course not. So why should we tie our analysis of a player to those metrics? We're better than that.

A player puts up good results BECAUSE of abilities he has? Great--that's when those stats matter. So, the best we can do is filter out the noise (garbage stats) and try to analyze a player's ability.

You're entirely correct that Baker looked better in this game than he did in week 1. As I've said numerous times--I believe that Stefanski's system will put Baker in positions to succeed. I hope that being in a more positive situation allows Baker to grow and improve. Pointing out that he still has warts isn't saying he's dogshit--it's just pointing out areas that still need work.

One play that @Jordan didn't show that I think was egregious was this one (might want to watch a few times at half-speed to follow my description below):


If the NFL broke the link, the play begins at 2:12.

Baker's first read is to the right side of the field. He sees the safety, #24, turn his back away and run towards the left. He sees the linebacker run towards the line. He knows that his first read, OBJ, has one-on-one coverage with no help over the top.

OBJ beats his man off the line in the first step with the fake outside and step inside with the hand swipe. At this point, a better QB knows that this is six points. This is as automatic as it gets in the NFL. Baker comes off that read.

Sure, he scrambles to his left and runs for the first down. Sure, the drive ends up with a touchdown. So, the end statistical result is no difference. However, it's a glaring example of where Baker still needs to improve.

I hope that coaches picked this play out and showed him what he missed. I hope Baker learns from this and starts to read the field better. If he does that, the sky is the limit. I just want him to reach that potential so we can start wrecking the NFL like we thought we were going to do in his second year.

This is the 3rd time I have responded about this play and it will be the last. I am so sick of it. You continue to harp on it, and its not nearly as "egregious" as you make it out to be .

Baker sensed pressure and was flushed from the pocket, in doing so he saw an opening to run for a first down and ensuring the drive continued (remember its 3rd and 7). If he had reset once he initially escaped pressure he probably have seen OBJ-yes. But ultimately he went with the higher chance first down. Was it the "best" decision, maybe/maybe not. However was it one of a possibility of correct answers, yes absolutely. Its plays like this why I think he gets a B+ grade from me. But ultimately I feel like this is just nitpicking a QB who saw an opening to pick up the first down and took it.

As far as future performance versus past performance versus statistics, versus the color of the sky, versus a fu manchu mustache, versus is PFF being anything more than a money scam.

I was merely responding to Jordan's point in the article:"Nonetheless, I am not sure Baker’s improvement was anything more than marginal." Baker had 4 days to improve his play, and its pretty clear he did. Did he play a flawless game, not by any stretch, but to watch game 1 and then to watch game 2 and not think Baker was improved is absolutely ridiculous.

But the point that seems just totally and completely miss the two of you is this. Baker mayfield is playing in his 4th system in 4 years. He had very limited practice time and no real game time to learn the system and these first 2 games are his first live action within this system. Its fine if you want to say "yep here is where he needs improvement", but to think that he isnt going to make improvement just by gaining experience in a brand new system is fucking asinine. Does it explain every single mistake he made over the first 2 weeks, gods no. But especially plays like Jordan's 2nd example is very classic example of a QB making a slow decision because he is waiting for a play to develop as opposed to being able to sense the play.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

This is the 3rd time I have responded about this play and it will be the last. I am so sick of it. You continue to harp on it, and its not nearly as "egregious" as you make it out to be .

Baker sensed pressure and was flushed from the pocket, in doing so he saw an opening to run for a first down and ensuring the drive continued (remember its 3rd and 7). If he had reset once he initially escaped pressure he probably have seen OBJ-yes. But ultimately he went with the higher chance first down. Was it the "best" decision, maybe/maybe not. However was it one of a possibility of correct answers, yes absolutely. Its plays like this why I think he gets a B+ grade from me. But ultimately I feel like this is just nitpicking a QB who saw an opening to pick up the first down and took it.

To me, this doesn't make sense. The ball should be lobbed towards the end zone before that guy ever comes around the back side. The pressure doesn't matter here because it comes after the play should have been made. The great QB's make that throw. Even the "maybe-great" guys like Roethlisberger and Rivers make that throw. I want Baker to be great. It's a place where he must improve if he wants to be great. Defensive breakdowns and free six point opportunities are rare in the NFL. You have to take them when they're offered.

As far as future performance versus past performance versus statistics, versus the color of the sky, versus a fu manchu mustache, versus is PFF being anything more than a money scam.

I was merely responding to Jordan's point in the article:"Nonetheless, I am not sure Baker’s improvement was anything more than marginal." Baker had 4 days to improve his play, and its pretty clear he did. Did he play a flawless game, not by any stretch, but to watch game 1 and then to watch game 2 and not think Baker was improved is absolutely ridiculous.

Noted. I would agree that there was significant improvement, as in game one there were accuracy mistakes that are uncharacteristic of Baker Mayfield.

But the point that seems just totally and completely miss the two of you is this. Baker mayfield is playing in his 4th system in 4 years. He had very limited practice time and no real game time to learn the system and these first 2 games are his first live action within this system.

The point isn't missed at all. It's the reason why, in the offseason, I said I had low confidence for this team this season, but higher confidence moving forward. With a young team, young QB, new system and a first time head coach, and decently high expectations and pressure, I can't imagine a team that got COVID-screwed harder than we did.

Its fine if you want to say "yep here is where he needs improvement"

Is it? Because that's what I'm saying.

but to think that he isnt going to make improvement just by gaining experience in a brand new system is fucking asinine.

I'm fairly certain that I've stated that I'm optimistic that Baker will improve this season. I've said that I feel Stefanski's system puts Baker in positions to succeed, and a positive environment for a young QB is essential to growth and development. So, I have no idea where this comment comes from.

Does it explain every single mistake he made over the first 2 weeks, gods no.

Well, that's what we're trying to do.

But especially plays like Jordan's 2nd example is very classic example of a QB making a slow decision because he is waiting for a play to develop as opposed to being able to sense the play.

I don't necessarily agree with @Jordan 's criticism of that particular play. I always try and pause the different views to see what the field looks like when the QB completes his drop and lands on that back foot. In this situation, the linebacker that was on Chubb was also covering the underneath part of Beckham's route. Without Chubb's route biting off outside into the flat (Chubb just sat down), the linebacker was able to play both responsibilities. I actually think it's positive that Baker didn't throw the ball immediately to OBJ, as a bullet might get picked. That's an example of Baker reading underneath coverage, which is definitely a positive thing. A softer touch may have been perfect there, but I'm okay with everything not being executed 100%.

 

[Jordan]

But the point that seems just totally and completely miss the two of you is this. Baker mayfield is playing in his 4th system in 4 years. He had very limited practice time and no real game time to learn the system and these first 2 games are his first live action within this system. Its fine if you want to say "yep here is where he needs improvement", but to think that he isnt going to make improvement just by gaining experience in a brand new system is fucking asinine. Does it explain every single mistake he made over the first 2 weeks, gods no.

I generally respect everything you have said (p.s. this is a great opportunity for me to say that, RBF is looking for writers and if anyone wants to write about this subject or something else, PLEASE let @Sebastian @Randolphkeys @Amherstcavsfan or myself know), but this is an unfair judgment of our intelligence, and I am pretty sure that you are aware of that.

Of course we recognize that this is a new system and it will take time. Hell, I think we owe Baker even more time due to how COVID fucked with camp. To be clear, I still think Baker is probably the Browns starting QB for a long time and we will make a few playoffs and maybe even a Super Bowl run with him.

I think the point that both Rafters and I are making is that the Cincinnati game, by itself, did not demonstrate anything more than Baker can make the correct pass when the read is easy. That is definitely an improvement over last year. But it is not clear whatsoever that this improvement will carry over to games when the team faces a better defense. Neither Rafters nor I are saying that it won't transfer over, just that his performance was not so spectacular that one can assume it will. Maybe my views of grades are different than your's, but I would give Baker a "B" grade against Cincinnati, so I apologize if that was unclear.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Also, @bob2the2nd sometimes a macro view is helpful to understand where I'm coming from.

I think these are the QB's that are better than Baker:

Cam Newton
Patrick Mahomes
Lamar Jackson
Ben Roethlisberger
Deshaun Watson
Dak Prescott
Kyler Murray
Russell Wilson
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Tom Brady

These are the QB's that are worse than Baker:

Kirk Cousins
Jimmy Garoppalo
Sam Darnold
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Derek Carr
Tyrod Taylor
Ryan Tannehill
Philip Rivers
Dwayne Haskins
Daniel Jones
Mitch Trubisky
Teddy Bridgewater

Which puts him somewhere in this category, with a lot of other QB's:

Matt Ryan
Jared Goff
Carson Wentz
Josh Allen
Justin Herbert
Drew Lock
Joe Burrow
Gardner Minshew
Matthew Stafford

 

[bob2the2nd]

Also, @bob2the2nd sometimes a macro view is helpful to understand where I'm coming from.

I think these are the QB's that are better than Baker:

Cam Newton
Patrick Mahomes
Lamar Jackson
Ben Roethlisberger
Deshaun Watson
Dak Prescott
Kyler Murray
Russell Wilson
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Tom Brady

These are the QB's that are worse than Baker:

Kirk Cousins
Jimmy Garoppalo
Sam Darnold
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Derek Carr
Tyrod Taylor
Ryan Tannehill
Philip Rivers
Dwayne Haskins
Daniel Jones
Mitch Trubisky
Teddy Bridgewater

Which puts him somewhere in this category, with a lot of other QB's:

Matt Ryan
Jared Goff
Carson Wentz
Josh Allen
Justin Herbert
Drew Lock
Joe Burrow
Gardner Minshew
Matthew Stafford

I have always maintained i think Baker's ceiling is in the 5-10 QBs in the league (going back to pre-draft days) so this is absolutely a fair assesment

 

[CBBI]

I wrote about why I am not all that convinced in Baker's performance, however, am ecstatic about Stefanski's play-calling.

The Browns' Performance Through Week 2, Baker Mayfield, And Analytics - RealBrownsFans.com

There has been an ongoing theme since the Browns' drafted Baker Mayfield: we are

realbrownsfans.com

Good article. A little nitpicky about certain things, but well researched and written.

First throw to Landry...

Mayfield does stare him down, but rewatching the play I'm going to give Baker a little credit and assume that he actually did make a quick read of what 40 (bailing out deep) and 24 (soft zone a few yards to the other side of the far hash) were both doing.

Based on that, I believe Mayfield knew Landry was going to be open on the curl by about Landry's 5th stride with Landry not beginning his curl until his 9th/10th stride. Now you could make the case that the ball could and should have come out even earlier than it did, but I don't think it was a particularly dangerous throw unless 24 abandoned his zone responsibilities completely which most defenders don't do.

Second throw to Beckham...

This could be a nitpicky thing, but I don't consider this is a slow read problem so much as it was Baker feeling interior pressure that simply wasn't close enough to him problem. His first read was to Hooper on the quick out at the top of the 3 step drop. Hooper wasn't open and as Baker was coming off him and looking elsewhere, he panicked from pressure off to his right that simply wasn't close enough to him to warrant him pulling the ball down. He has to just stand taller (no pun intended) and trust that his OL is going to hold up (which they did in this case) and then he can fire the ball to Beckham right as he's coming open on the square in.

Third throw that was intercepted...

This is the worst throw of the bunch by a wide margin for me for a few reasons.

1. Baker panicked again at pressure when he didn't need to.
-This was a designed play action fake to the left with a rollout to the right with Hodge and Carlson as the two primary options. The left edge defender didn't bite on the fake and was bearing down on Mayfield. But Baker to his credit actually put an athletic move on the defender and bought himself much more time than he realized. Now obviously Baker has no way of knowing that the defender he juked was going to fall down behind him, but he at the very least needs to see the wide open space he has if he simply moves to his right.

2. He misread the coverage post snap.
-When Hodge's defender didn't follow him across the formation into the flat, that's the clear indication he's not playing man, which means almost assuredly sinking into a deep zone. But Baker never recognized that (recognizing zone defenders when he thinks it's man coverage is one of his worst problems IMO) and threw to Bryant on the deep post thinking he had beaten man coverage 1 on 1.

3. He made a poor decision.
-Ok so let's get to the actual decision. With the backside defender (Hodge's original defender) now playing zone, Baker simply cannot throw the post over the middle under any circumstances. The only two options he has on the play at that point with Hodge and Carlson covered so effectively are to A. scramble and pick up whatever he can or B. hit his emergency release in Hooper.



The closest defender to Hooper there is a defensive tackle. A quick safe throw that leads Hooper a little bit to his left is going to almost assuredly pick up a first down.

 

[CBBI]

OBJ beats his man off the line in the first step with the fake outside and step inside with the hand swipe. At this point, a better QB knows that this is six points. This is as automatic as it gets in the NFL. Baker comes off that read.

Again, not trying to be nitpicky, but I don't think Baker "came off" the Beckham read so much as he panicked at the blindside pressure he felt Wills allowing.

And to Wills' credit, he made a really nice athletic move to recover from getting beat and eventually ride the defender harmlessly past Baker and out of the play with one arm.

But when your QB struggles with pressure as much as Mayfield does, it's tough to ask him to trust that his rookie left tackle is going to recover as nicely as Wills ended up recovering on the play.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

Again, not trying to be nitpicky, but I don't think Baker "came off" the Beckham read so much as he panicked at the blindside pressure he felt Willis allowing.

And to Wills' credit, he made a really nice athletic move to recover from getting beat and eventually ride the defender harmlessly past Baker and out of the play with one arm.

But when your QB struggles with pressure as much as Mayfield does, it's tough to ask him to trust that his rookie left tackle is going to recover as nicely as Wills ended up recovering on the play.

I think one of the things we'll see improve with Baker this year is pocket awareness. I think we lived with dogshit tackles for so long that Baker's internal clock is really fast right now.

It's going to take a lot of playing time before he accepts that he has tackles who can protect him. That sort of thing only comes with reps.