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Jordan

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There was a reason I led with: "I don't know the technical answers to any of that."

Saw you coming, Keys!

It is odd though that the national narrative has been so heavily focused on Mahomes, when the equally important question (because ultimately, we have to score more points than they do) of how the Chiefs stop the Browns kind of gets lost. Probably because Mahomes is pretty close to being the face of the NFL, so talking about him gets the most clicks. We've discussed our offense v. there defense a lot here, but it's getting short shrift nationally.

Btw, the analysis put together on playing Cover 3 and Cover 4 was outstanding. Didn't know any of that, which is why the article was so useful. When we're playing Cover three, are the corners generally in man, or are they playing zone?
I think it depends on who the cornerbacks are. My guess is they do more pattern matching when Ward plays. But definitely zone overall.

I love that! Probably because I was thinking the same thing. The more possessions the Chiefs have, the more likely Mahomes' brilliance is statistically likely to emerge. Fewer drives gives us a better chance of seizing on a single error for a critical advantage.



No argument there. But I do think longer drives not only mean fewer possessions, but also is more likely to keep our defense fresh against an extremely mobile QB. I really think our offensive balance gives us a shot. Truthfully, when we've been healthy and decide to open things up, we are extraordinarily dangerous. You don't hang 42 points on the Ravens (last time our offense was truly healthy and needed points) otherwise.

So that's one reason I'm hoping to hell Conklin is a go.
100% agree with everything you said here. I'd also like to add that, as you run more offensive snaps in a drive, the defense wears down quicker than your offensive, allowing you to run the ball with even greater efficiency. It's harder to play defense, especially on the defensive line, than it is to run block as an offensive lineman.

All of these reasons are getting me far too optimistic for Sunday.
I agree. I think a mistake that teams make is going too hard to one extreme. I do think we will see more Chubb and less Hunt, just based on the strengths and weaknesses of their defensive line. If you can get to the edge of the line then the Chiefs really do don't have any hope in hell of stopping you. Run fast, run to the outside, pass when appropriate, but still run.
 

Out of the Rafters at the Q

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I think it depends on who the cornerbacks are. My guess is they do more pattern matching when Ward plays. But definitely zone overall.



I agree. I think a mistake that teams make is going too hard to one extreme. I do think we will see more Chubb and less Hunt, just based on the strengths and weaknesses of their defensive line. If you can get to the edge of the line then the Chiefs really do don't have any hope in hell of stopping you. Run fast, run to the outside, pass when appropriate, but still run.
I can't say I've kept up with his career, but is Mathieu any good at attacking runs that try to get to the edge? I seem to remember that being something he did well at LSU, but I also have this image in my head of him being smaller and someone who's a weapon against the pass who struggles against the run.
 

Jordan

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I can't say I've kept up with his career, but is Mathieu any good at attacking runs that try to get to the edge? I seem to remember that being something he did well at LSU, but I also have this image in my head of him being smaller and someone who's a weapon against the pass who struggles against the run.
He is, but he is the only one, and teams generally have gotten around that with pre-snap motion and/or overloads to make him jump to the wrong side. He is required to do pretty much everything for that defense and is absolutely phenomenal. But the 49ers beat him a few times with Moster running wide-zone to the opposite side of where pre-snap movement created an overload.
 

Randolphkeys

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I can't say I've kept up with his career, but is Mathieu any good at attacking runs that try to get to the edge? I seem to remember that being something he did well at LSU, but I also have this image in my head of him being smaller and someone who's a weapon against the pass who struggles against the run.

In general, the Chiefs have outstanding coverage from the cornerbacks but spotty run support from the linebackers and safeties. Dan Sorenson is the Andrew Sendejo of Kansas City... supposed to be a backup, has to start, fans are furious.
 

The Human Q-Tip

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100% agree with everything you said here. I'd also like to add that, as you run more offensive snaps in a drive, the defense wears down quicker than your offensive, allowing you to run the ball with even greater efficiency. It's harder to play defense, especially on the defensive line, than it is to run block as an offensive lineman.

All of these reasons are getting me far too optimistic for Sunday.

Why not? When healthy, this offense is balanced and devastating. And for once, we can say we also are well-coached, and if we can see some opportunities in running, we definitely have the coaching staff to take advantage of that.

ETA: Have to say that I didn't know any of the details about the KC defense you guys are bringing up, so thank you. Easy for me to say this, but you guys should collaborate on something to give everyone else here a chance to learn and get fired up. And if you do manage to get something written, please give it its own thread and pin the fucker. You guys deserve the traffic!
 
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Jordan

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Why not? When healthy, this offense is balanced and devastating. And for once, we can say we also are well-coached, and if we can see some opportunities in running, we definitely have the coaching staff to take advantage of that.
Browns were favored +395 money line. I don't bet, but you better bet your ass that I just bet money on that.

I think the Chiefs will win, but that line is absolutely absurd. Browns have as good of a shot as anyone left - outside of maybe the Packers and Rams - to dethrone the Chiefs.
 

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Browns were favored +395 money line. I don't bet, but you better bet your ass that I just bet money on that.

I think the Chiefs will win, but that line is absolutely absurd. Browns have as good of a shot as anyone left - outside of maybe the Packers and Rams - to dethrone the Chiefs.

Was at +420 yesterday afternoon.

Money coming in certainly appears to be on the Browns.

I put a 7pt teaser on LA to win, Browns +17.5

Leaning hard into that ML possibility as well on a small wager.
 

Jordan

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Was at +420 yesterday afternoon.

Money coming in certainly appears to be on the Browns.

I put a 7pt teaser on LA to win, Browns +17.5

Leaning hard into that ML possibility as well on a small wager.
Yep, I bet on LAR too. That defense is the most creative I have seen in a decade and, looking at their games against other ZBS/Kubiak/Shanahan scheme teams, they tend to do pretty well. I think Green Bay wins, but I can easily see a world where the Rams beat them.

I hate betting on my teams. But that ML was too sweet not to put money on.
 

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Yep, I bet on LAR too. That defense is the most creative I have seen in a decade and, looking at their games against other ZBS/Kubiak/Shanahan scheme teams, they tend to do pretty well. I think Green Bay wins, but I can easily see a world where the Rams beat them.

I hate betting on my teams. But that ML was too sweet not to put money on.

Goff with a thumb that was pinned back together two weeks ago, in Green Bay, against a not so friendly pass rush.

With A-Rod on the other side...


If that loses, Vegas can have the money.
 

Out of the Rafters at the Q

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Yep, I bet on LAR too. That defense is the most creative I have seen in a decade and, looking at their games against other ZBS/Kubiak/Shanahan scheme teams, they tend to do pretty well. I think Green Bay wins, but I can easily see a world where the Rams beat them.

I hate betting on my teams. But that ML was too sweet not to put money on.
Heh, I would take Green Bay to cover the spread in that one.

But, I can definitely see a world where LA wins. Even with Rodgers playing like, by far, the best QB in the league... if Ramsey locks down Davante, that Packers offense could turn into sludge real quick. I don't trust their offensive line and Aaron Jones enough to be the primary option in the playoffs.
 

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Goff with a thumb that was pinned back together two weeks ago, in Green Bay, against a not so friendly pass rush.

With A-Rod on the other side...


If that loses, Vegas can have the money.
Not to mention that GB's offense is quietly one of the best Shanahan-scheme offenses I've seen since the early 2000s. Again, I think that Green Bay probably wins... but I thought the odds for LAR winning were better than the odds of them actually winning, so I threw down some money.

At this point, I just recycle money that I've actually won, lol.
 

Jordan

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Here is part 2 - I'd appreciate if you read. If you really like what we are doing, send an article or two to an old friend.

NBA season is over, let's get this NFL season started!

I gave it the initial retweet. Had a better chance to read it, now, and it’s really well-written and convincing. Great work!
 
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