As I am killing time, I was headed down some of this wasted time. Here was the odds that CleGuardPro put together on who we would roster -- "I'd rather just look at who we're letting teams snatch up for free, not what happened in the past."
Who will the Guardians add to the 40-man roster and protect from this year's MLB Rule 5 Draft
www.si.com
The one that I am worried about is Hankins (50%) just due to his potential upside. But, as he has just pitched 1 professional game since 2019, there is little data out there per Bimbo which will make teams hesitant to select than someone with more info to judge on. And, read the info on how much his pitches move, it means that he still has control issues that need to be rectified which is also the last thing to even come back from TJS.
G Rodriquez was one that I wasn't too worried about due to just being in A+but in re-reading this
"Unfortunately for Rodriguez suffered an injury at the end of the season and underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder on September 14th. There is a good chance he may not be ready in time for the start of spring training or the start of the 2023 season."
Sounds a lot like Santander -- "Santander had offseason shoulder surgery on his throwing arm ". But, Bimbo said rules were adjusted to make it harder to hide players with these injuries. And, as the surgery would have been in late Sept vs Santander (after the season), his recovery would be faster and harder to hide all season.
There has been worries about Miko but Bimbo said that his peripherals went wrong direction this year due to tighter strike zone and better umps at AAA -- thus was exposed. In addition, there are always a lot of relievers like him available (those harder throwers are more rare). Herrin another guy that people like has had control issues as well (but a harder throwing lefty). Misiaszek is probably the Loogy that is at most at risk, but he is more of a strict LOOGY which are not as popular with 3 batter rule (righties hit .252/.712 off him vs lefties .182/.482) and his WHIP went up to 1.4-1.5 in all 3 months at AAA -- not what you want to see in a LOOGY where you need to get through that small section of line-up unscathed (before righties come back up).
The other thing that will limit Rule 5 this year is the playoff format, teams wanting to get that 5th and 6th wild card will not want to hang onto a struggling rookie all season (return them) - making less teams interested in making selections vs focusing on FA to fill holes. Also, the recent surge in team copying the Guardians playbook of acquiring young talent makes it harder for them to stash their own players within the 40 man limits (especially as there seems to be a few more issues with TJS that have to be stashed until March disable lists open).
Breaking down the teamsse
(30 teams - 12 that made playoffs = 18 teams that usually select)
(5) Rebuilding with room (won't make playoffs) -- Colorado, Washington, Cincinnati, Detroit, KC - 90%-100% chance taking 1 guy
(7) Teams who didn't make playoffs but have money and want to win via FA -- Boston, Chicago WS, Twins, Chicago Cubs, SanFran, Texas - 30%-40% chance taking guy
(5) Teams who didn't make playoffs but have some roster issues -- Pitt, Arizona, Miami, Oakland, Baltimore (25-35% chance)
(1) And who knows what they will do -- Angels with Ohtani (probably won't be big players in Rule 5) - 25%
(1) Others (going for playoffs but some room but cheaper for Rule 5) - Milwaukee- 35%
In order (I am focusing on pitching as that is the risk we have to lose on .... based on history 72.5% and our situation with Hankins) -- using FG roster numbers that do not include pending options
Washington - Still sitting with 41 players, 9-12 players could be added but 10 or so could be cut as well (including Call and Perez). With bullpen strength, they may not be big players as that is where you hide these players.
Oakland - Still sitting with 42 players, have 4-7 adds and a bunch of cuts like Clement and Machin, but hard to fit things in (maybe 1 player). But again bullpen has some room but not alot for their usual 2 Rule 5 type players. And 2 pitchers are on TJS for most of year, how do they keep Rule 5 in 18 pitchers remaining of 20 50/50 split on 40 man (5 starter + 7-8 relievers + a few depth pieces + Rule 5 pitcher??? - harder to do).
Pitt - Sitting at 44 with 5 must adds and a bunch of fringe players to cut. But, how much do they cut and lose MLB experience??? Also, they have a bunch of players that will exceed our guys like T Thomas (interesting upside - played better at year-end) or Mason Martin (19HR 23 yr old AAA slugger but struggled with contact).
Cincinnati - Will have room for Rule 5 with sitting at 39 with a few NTC and few adds and needing bullpen pitchers. But, with like 8 AAA relievers getting time in MLB, they will need to weed out a lot of possible talent and add some nice AAA starter talent in Williams, Stoudt and Richardson to fit 20 pitchers or so on the roster.
KC -- They are sitting at 40 players with some must adds but a few more cuts to make it happen for 1 pick or so. Bullpen could use an arm but isn't in bad shape.
Tigers -- Should have room but sitting at 47 players, there is a lot to weed out first. Plus, with 4 injured pitchers Skuball, Mize, Guenther, Funkhouser ... that arbitrary 20 pitcher threshold maybe hard to get under with rostering Olson and possibly Hess
Texas - They are sitting at 39 players but have an issue per FG with adds of : Cole Winn, Owen White, Dustin Harris, Avery Weems, Luisangel Acuna, Mason Englert, Cody Bradford -- plus wanting to win focuses them on FA vs Rule 5
Colorado -- They are sitting at 38 players plus possibly Oberg with $8 club option (but hasn't pitched in 3 years) -- but need SP and RP so Rule 5 is sometimes easier than getting a FA into Coors
Miami -- Down to 45 players (starting to clean up) but a lot of FG must adds in Peyton Burdick, Andrew Nardi, Josh Simpson, Sean Reynolds -- means 9 more cuts. And another team with 4 TJS or other injuries Myer, Sanchez, Bender Poteet that hiding Rule 5 in 16 other pitchers is hard to do (unless cuts are made).
LAA - they are at 40 players with a few adds but will they go build around Ohtani to try to keep him or mess around Rule 5?
Arizona - at 44 players and a few adds, they can get down to add a player especially as they can use another RP. But with their talent rising do they build around their OFers and go for it starting this year? But probably add one Rule 5 though
Cubs -- at 43 players plus Smyly at a $9 mill mutual option, they need to cut some fat as they also have 4 RP pitchers out with TJS or Back surgery plus
adds in Brennen Davis, Kevin Alcantara, Chase Strumpf, Ryan Jensen, Riley Thompson. In addition with FO focus in wanting a fast turnaround, they may not be focused on Rule 5.
Twins -- They are at 36 players (plus 1 or 2 more on options like Gray) -- They also want Correa back and a catcher. Thus, not much room but may add 1 in Rule 5 but another place with a lot of injuries to Paddock, Stashak and Lewis so harder to hide another non-productive players over the winter months during FA
RedSox -- Sitting at 36 players, they got room to add in Rule 5 plus they found Whitlock this way.
White Sox -- At 37 players plus Pollock and Anderson (39) with a few must adds and a few NTC ... they can get a Rule 5 but will they want space for FA?
Giants -- They are at 43 players and focusing on FA to rebuild. Decent BP .... so even if they take someone, it is hard to hide them in this area of the draft process
Baltimore - They are sitting at 36 players with 4 must adds, thus may not have the room even though they are usually a player (can still do it but not bad of a pen).
Milwaukee - They are sitting at 32 with 2 other option adds in Wong and Boxemberger. They probably have room to add and want to upgrade their pen but do they stash someone here for whole year after they fix things in trades/FA?
Then Playoff teams .... (limit of 28 players during September when trying to get seeding makes Rule 5 hard to hide someone for rest of year)
Based on this analysis -- my guess is there maybe 12-13 selections (on high side of est) which is a bit below average than 14 avg -- not the usual high of 18 selections in a year with good players to select (which people suggest this year maybe as there wasn't Rule 5 last year -- not really the case but still with 1 less year of developing, some guys are still behind the roster area growth curve -- good talent in A ball that maybe too early to roster like our Rodriguez).
Sorry if long but was thinking of doing it anyways so took some time today as I am busy tomorrow.
