Second half 22 GM Thread!

[sportscoach]

No sir.

You have offered nothing to contradict studies by two experts on the subject.

But continue to ignore the facts.

You arent good at arguing in good faith at times either, not gonna lie...

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

No sir.

You have offered nothing to contradict studies by two experts on the subject.

But continue to ignore the facts.

Why do you think I should provide evidence to counter anything?

As I've stated numerous times now, I'm not arguing any position here. I'm just explaining why the data you're choosing to use is suboptimal.

It is suboptimal. You're using it for a specific reason. That sucks.

And no, it isn't just my opinion that it's suboptimal, for reasons explained in my previous posts.

Have a great Sunday cats.

 

[CATS44]

What about Triston McKenzie?

If Triston has a 10 WAR career, he will have beaten the odds.

He will be the first Indians/Guardians first round HS pitcher since CC to do it.

Derek Thompson
Dan Denham
Alan Horne
JD Martin
Adam Miller
Brady Aiken

Did not.

Justin Sheffield isn't looking too good.

Ethan Hankins hasnt pitched in over two years and is R5 eligible. Lenny Torres is in Lake County and is R5 eligible.

That leaves Espino.

 

[sportscoach]

If Triston has a 10 WAR career, he will have beaten the odds.

He will be the first Indians/Guardians first round HS pitcher since CC to do it.

Derek Thompson
Dan Denham
Alan Horne
JD Martin
Adam Miller
Brady Aiken

Did not.

Justin Sheffield isn't looking too good.

Ethan Hankins hasnt pitched in over two years and is R5 eligible. Lenny Torres is in Lake County and is R5 eligible.

That leaves Espino.

You will always have exceptions and TMac will get to 10 if he stays healthy no doubt....

Maybe rather than argue against Espino, you argument says we should never draft a high school arm in the first round again...

Also Aiken wasn't a high school arm when we took him, so get him off your list...

 

[CATS44]

Nothing I've said is a new position. For years I've disdained drafting HS pitchers in the first round.

For years I've adhered to the old adage that there is no such thing as a SP prospect. The attrition rate is atrocious.

Over and over again I've posted the failure rates of even the highest rated pitching prospects throughout baseball.

Its not new, and as teenage pitchers keep adding velocity and throwing unconsciable amounts of innings in showcases and traveling teams, it isn't gonna change.

 

[sportscoach]

Guardians, A's Have Discussed Sean Murphy

The Guardians and Athletics have had trade discussions surrounding catcher Sean Murphy, writes Zack Meisel of The Athletic. Murphy's name …

www.mlbtraderumors.com

But it sounds like nothing is really going on, since A's want to much...

 

[CDAV45]

Guardians, A's Have Discussed Sean Murphy

The Guardians and Athletics have had trade discussions surrounding catcher Sean Murphy, writes Zack Meisel of The Athletic. Murphy's name …

www.mlbtraderumors.com

But it sounds like nothing is really going on, since A's want to much...

Pretty much like saying the sky is blue. No substance in that article and it’s just as likely they asked about Langliers instead. Oh well.

 

[Gson]

Pretty much like saying the sky is blue. No substance in that article and it’s just as likely they asked about Langliers instead. Oh well.

...purely a pot stirring article... as you've said.. smoke and mirrors.. no substance..

..if the A's value their players in a similar fashion that the Guardians do.. Murphy isn't going anywhere..

 

[sportscoach]

Rewatching the game today, I don't think Rosario gets traded this season. I feel like he has stepped into one of the veterans/leadership roles so moving him I think would do more harm than good...

 

[CATS44]

Since Sean Murphy entered MLB in 2019, nineteen catchers have had at least 1000 PAs.

Murphy ranks...

2nd in dfWAR
5th in wRC+
5th in fWAR
3rd in fWAR per 600 PAs.

Only Realmuto and Smith...both in the NL...have been better all around.

**********

Since Merrill Kelly jumped to MLB in 2019, only 32 pitchers have thrown at least 450 IP.

Kelly ranks 21st-23rd in fWAR, ERA, and FIP, while averaging just under 6 IP per start.

 

[sportscoach]

Since Sean Murphy entered MLB in 2019, nineteen catchers have had at least 1000 PAs.

Murphy ranks...

2nd in dfWAR
5th in wRC+
5th in fWAR
3rd in fWAR per 600 PAs.

Only Realmuto and Smith...both in the NL...have been better all around.

**********

Since Merrill Kelly jumped to MLB in 2019, only 32 pitchers have thrown at least 450 IP.

Kelly ranks 21st-23rd in fWAR, ERA, and FIP, while averaging just under 6 IP per start.

Murphy also had a stretch in there were he wasn't even league average with the bat for 160 games... he was way above average in the other 80...

He will cost the same as us trading for a Bieber right now... Don't say he won't, cause he definitely will. Oakland will want us to pay for a 130 OPS+ guy...

 

[KluberSociety]

If two decades of data doesn't do it for you, nothing will.

Espino is the exception to the rule, just as every other first round HS pitching draft pick has been in the eyes of the GMs who chose him and in the eyes of the fans that follow that team.

That doesn't mean that I dont think Espino will be a huge success. A lot of HS pitchers have done just that...beat the odds.

But keep drawing to an inside straight....and let me know how much money you lost.

What's the success rate when pitchers have put up the kind of minor league performances so far that Espino has?

In statistical terms, you need to be looking at posterior rather than prior distributions to answer this one, i.e. adapting to new data.

Espino has dominated AA, while guys like Denham ran into a performance wall in the upper minors. Maybe you could compare to someone like Adam Miller and say he throws hard enough that the injury risk is there but in general I think you will find that pitchers running over AA batters are likely to have some success in the majors. The bigger issue is most HS pitchers don't make it there.

 

[CATS44]

Its not just performance, its injuries. The farther away a prospect is from MLB, the likelier it is that he will suffer a major injury before he gets there...and HS pitchers are behind college kids from the get go.

Its not only HS pitchers, its all young pitchers....but the HS kids have the highest risk factors. Let colleges carry the risk for the first several years out of HS.

Anyway, look at the top pitching prospects of 2018. Nine of them in fangraphs top 30...five of them were 60 FV.

All but one were at least Espinos age. All but one were just as advanced and had success in the minors to that point. Most were more advanced than Espino.

Whitley
Honeywell
Alex Reyes
Sanchez
Kopech
Mitch Keller
Kyle Wright
Buehler
Puk

One...Walker Buehler...is what everyone expects Espino to become, an immediate sensation.

For the sake of discussion, how many teams would have done quite well by trading any of them...when they were in AA...for 3.5 years of Sean Murphy?

All but one, the Dodgers.

************

There were 23 pitchers taken in the first round of the 2016 draft. You would expect a first rounder to make MLB six years after being drafted. You would expect a first rounder to have some early impact. Thats why you draft them and pay them big bucks.

Out of those 23, nine were HS kids.

Five have gotten to MLB. One, Ian Anderson, has more than 1.1 fWAR...3.9.

Fourteen were college kids. Thirteen have made MLB. Three of them have been converted to relief. Four of the rest have at least 2.1 fWAR.

Eric Lauer....5.1
Quantrill...4.3
Dunning...3.2
Dakota Hudson...2.1

Tell me again why anybody would draft a HS pitcher in the first round.

 

[sportscoach]

Its not just performance, its injuries. The farther away a prospect is from MLB, the likelier it is that he will suffer a major injury before he gets there...and HS pitchers are behind college kids from the get go.

Its not only HS pitchers, its all young pitchers....but the HS kids have the highest risk factors. Let colleges carry the risk for the first several years out of HS.

Anyway, look at the top pitching prospects of 2018. Nine of them in fangraphs top 30...five of them were 60 FV.

All but one were at least Espinos age. All but one were just as advanced and had success in the minors to that point. Most were more advanced than Espino.

Whitley
Honeywell
Alex Reyes
Sanchez
Kopech
Mitch Keller
Kyle Wright
Buehler
Puk

One...Walker Buehler...is what everyone expects Espino to become, an immediate sensation.

For the sake of discussion, how many teams would have done quite well by trading any of them...when they were in AA...for 3.5 years of Sean Murphy?

All but one, the Dodgers.

************

There were 23 pitchers taken in the first round of the 2016 draft. You would expect a first rounder to make MLB six years after being drafted. You would expect a first rounder to have some early impact. Thats why you draft them and pay them big bucks.

Out of those 23, nine were HS kids.

Five have gotten to MLB. One, Ian Anderson, has more than 1.1 fWAR...3.9.

Fourteen were college kids. Thirteen have made MLB. Three of them have been converted to relief. Four of the rest have at least 2.1 fWAR.

Eric Lauer....5.1
Quantrill...4.3
Dunning...3.2
Dakota Hudson...2.1

Tell me again why anybody would draft a HS pitcher in the first round.

It's call pure moldable potential... I don't need to say anymore lol

 

[CATS44]

Potential never won a ballgame.