Should the NFL Play at all in 2020? RBF

[Randolphkeys]

I don't think there is any realistic chance at keeping Covid out of schools over the course of a year, in either rural or urban environment.

Distance learning from March through June did a bang up job.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Distance learning from March through June did a bang up job.

Obviously, if you don't open schools at all, you don't risk them transmitting COVID. However, as I said above, there has been a lot of stuff written about the importance to children of in-person schooling. Even the CDC supports it:

Communities, Schools, Workplaces, & Events

Cleaning and Disinfecting: Everyday steps, when someone is sick, and considerations for employers.

www.cdc.gov

Anyway, my point was that if you are going to have in-person schooling, then I'm not sure what additional risk you really are running by having athletics.

 

[Los216]

Obviously, if you don't open schools at all, you don't risk them transmitting COVID. However, as I said above, there has been a lot of stuff written about the importance to children of in-person schooling. Even the CDC supports it:

Communities, Schools, Workplaces, & Events

Cleaning and Disinfecting: Everyday steps, when someone is sick, and considerations for employers.

www.cdc.gov

Anyway, my point was that if you are going to have in-person schooling, then I'm not sure what additional risk you really are running by having athletics.

Wouldn't the goal though be to distance learn until the virus is at a manageable enough state where we can phase back in in person schooling? I know it sounds crazy to say in August that school should be closed until Spring and be all online but that doesn't mean that if we distance learn starting now that we can't be at a manageable place in October/November and we can slowly phase back in with in person schooling.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Obviously, if you don't open schools at all, you don't risk them transmitting COVID. However, as I said above, there has been a lot of stuff written about the importance to children of in-person schooling. Even the CDC supports it:

Communities, Schools, Workplaces, & Events

Cleaning and Disinfecting: Everyday steps, when someone is sick, and considerations for employers.

www.cdc.gov

Anyway, my point was that if you are going to have in-person schooling, then I'm not sure what additional risk you really are running by having athletics.

We are in a double pandemic: Economic collapse and a Covid-19 outbreak on a contagion scale unseen in 100 years. No choice is without drawbacks. Remember I have kids too. I do believe in safety before self-actualization as a basic tenant of the hierarchy of human needs. Heck, kids from the Depression and WWII era also had interruptions of their usual education. They turned out okay after "remedying" their interruption. Some might say they learned a lot from that interruption.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Wouldn't the goal though be to distance learn until the virus is at a manageable enough state where we can phase back in in person schooling?

Well...no. The point of the CDC's report was it harms a lot of kids to miss in person schooling for any significant period of time. I'd also say that the way this virus seems to work is that is only "manageable" as long as we lockdown. But the second you don't...here it comes again. So we'd "distance learn", it would get manageable, we'd restart inperson schooling...and then it would pop right back up and we'd be right back to the lockdown.

So it may be better just to rip the band-aid off and get it over with.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

We are in a dpuble pandemic: Economic collapse and a Covid-19 outbreak on a contagion scale unseen in 100 years. No choice is without drawbacks. Remember I have kids too. I do believe in safety before self-actualization as a basic tenant of the hierarchy of human needs. Heck, kids from the Depression and WWII era also had interruptions of their usual education. They turned out okay after "remedying" their interruption. Some might say they learned a lot from that interruption.

Except those kids still had perfectly normal, fully-integrated social lives outside school. We're talking about an indefinite state of relative social isolation, and also a lot more "at risk" kids who don't have good home environments, and depend on school for some normalcy.

I'm not going to repeat everything that was in that CDC report. I'll just say that anyone interested should read it and draw their own conclusions.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Except those kids still had perfectly normal, fully-integrated social lives outside school. We're talking about an indefinite state of relative social isolation, and also a lot more "at risk" kids who don't have good home environments, and depend on school for some normalcy.

I'm not going to repeat everything that was in that CDC report. I'll just say that anyone interested should read it and draw their own conclusions.

I believe in a difference between an emergency closing of schools in March and a thoughtful opening of virtual classrooms now. Speaking personally, you guys know my eldest son has Autism. He's one of the kids who is hurt by the close. I can also tell you distance learning is WAY harder on teachers than teaching in person. The preparation takes three times longer, and I'm my kid's support as he learns. All that said, it's a cost benefit analysis that I personally see leaning toward safety during a pandemic. The other costs can be countered with careful planning, which schools all over the U.S. are working on right now.

A slippery slope argument about "if this risky behavior is okay, than more risky behavior should be okay too" doesn't hold water.

 

[Huber.]

Wouldn't the goal though be to distance learn until the virus is at a manageable enough state where we can phase back in in person schooling? I know it sounds crazy to say in August that school should be closed until Spring and be all online but that doesn't mean that if we distance learn starting now that we can't be at a manageable place in October/November and we can slowly phase back in with in person schooling.

Why isn't January 1st-August 31 with no summer break and then go right into the next school year for 2021-2022 being considered?

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

@Triplethreat in this thread proudly claiming certain individuals literally can't die from this disease.

@Triplethreat in this thead, also backing up his claim by showing statistics that provide a non-zero chance of dying from this disease. Then thinks that 0.10 is only .09% greater than 0.01, rather than 1000% greater

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

I believe in a difference between an emergency closing of schools in March and a thoughtful opening of virtual classrooms now. A slippery slope argument about "if this risky behavior is okay, than more risky behavior should be okay too" doesn't hold water.

It's not a slippery slope argument. The argument is that it doesn't make sense to take mitigation measures that have significant adverse costs if what you're seeking to mitigate is going to happen anyway.

You can be a thoughtful as you want with a virtual classroom, and that still cannot possibly take the place of in room instruction, and all the in-school interaction between kids. For some kids, sure. It might be fine. But there are a lot for whom it isn't, not to mention all those parents who are now going to have children home all day. In many cases, those kids are likely to be stuck in front of computers -- assuming the family even has one that is maintained correctly, etc.. -- and left.

I will say that if it were true that we can eliminate in person classrooms and just make it all virtual with no real loss for the student's development, perhaps what teachers have been doing all these years really isn't that big a deal, or that difficult.

 

[Randolphkeys]

not a slippery slope argument. The argument is that it doesn't make sense to take mitigation measures that have significant adverse costs if what you're seeking to mitigate is going to happen anyway.

Taken from a Washington Post article:

Almost 17 million adults, or 6.5 percent of the U.S. adult population, live in communities where covid-19 patients could overwhelm hospital beds, needing more than all available.

76 million adults, or 30 percent of the U.S. adult population, live where patients could overwhelm intensive-care beds.

125 million adults, or 48 percent of the U.S. adult population, live where virus patients could overwhelm the supply of mechanical ventilators. Those breathing machines are among the key hospital resources that can help patients facing death when the disease attacks their lungs.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/investigations/coronavirus-hospitals-data/

This is why the "rip off the Band Aid" approach has never been embraced by the scientific community.

You can be a thoughtful as you want with a virtual classroom, and that still cannot possibly take the place of in room instruction, and all the in-school interaction between kids. For some kids, sure. It might be fine. But there are a lot for whom it isn't, not to mention all those parents who are now going to have children home all day. In many cases, those kids are likely to be stuck in front of computers -- assuming the family even has one that is maintained correctly, etc.. -- and left.

I will say that if it were true that we can eliminate in person classrooms and just make it all virtual with no real loss for the student's development, perhaps what teachers have been doing all these years really isn't that big a deal, or that difficult.

Again, I have personally been consistent that I believe in virtual classrooms this month due to a cost/benefit analysis. I acknowledge the negatives for students with disabilities - my son is one of them - English Language Learners - many of my students included - and teachers themselves... This is way more difficult and time consuming than in-person teaching, and will result in less successful lessons.

However, the public health risks highlighted above are real, and harder for society to overcome than regressive test scores. As I wrote earlier in the thread, many first world countries have tried to re-open schools in the past month, only to close them down with increased strains on the medical infrastructure.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Taken from a Washington Post article:

Almost 17 million adults, or 6.5 percent of the U.S. adult population, live in communities where covid-19 patients could overwhelm hospital beds, needing more than all available.

76 million adults, or 30 percent of the U.S. adult population, live where patients could overwhelm intensive-care beds.

125 million adults, or 48 percent of the U.S. adult population, live where virus patients could overwhelm the supply of mechanical ventilators. Those breathing machines are among the key hospital resources that can help patients facing death when the disease attacks their lungs.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/investigations/coronavirus-hospitals-data/

This is why the "rip off the Band Aid" approach has never been embraced by the scientific community.



Again, I have personally been consistent that I believe in virtual classrooms this month due to a cost/benefit analysis. I acknowledge the negatives for students with disabilities - my son is one of them - English Language Learners - many of my students included - and teachers themselves... This is way more difficult and time consuming than in-person teaching, and will result in less successful lessons.

However, the public health risks highlighted above are real, and harder for society to overcome than regressive test scores. As I wrote earlier in the thread, many first world countries have tried to re-open schools in the past month, only to close them down with increased strains on the medical infrastructure.

Those are all valid concerns. I do question the hospitals being overwhelmed aspect of this. Not that I don't believe they can be overwhelmed - but that considering the transmissibility/mortality/severity of this thing, it seems that this thing seems naturally to peak right when resources are the most strained. The WP article you linked seems somewhat out of date. It talks about the dreaded ventilator shortage that never actually materialized. And as bad a some degree of overwhelming might be in a few locations -- possibility ameliorated by excess capacity elsewhere -- I'm not convinced that a prolonged lockdown is actually better for the country in the long run.

tl;dr I don't think the sole consideration in terms of setting public policy should be whichever approach causes the fewest deaths by Covid.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Those are all valid concerns. I do question the hospitals being overwhelmed aspect of this. Not that I don't believe they can be overwhelmed - but that considering the transmissibility/mortality/severity of this thing, it seems that this thing seems naturally to peak right when resources are the most strained. The WP article you linked seems somewhat out of date. It talks about the dreaded ventilator shortage that never actually materialized. And as bad a some degree of overwhelming might be in a few locations -- possibility ameliorated by excess capacity elsewhere -- I'm not convinced that a prolonged lockdown is actually better for the country in the long run.

tl;dr I don't think the sole consideration in terms of setting public policy should be whichever approach causes the fewest deaths by Covid.

That article is older than I thought, I'll wear that one on the ventilator facts.

My least favorite argument against the social restrictions of the past six months has to be "shortages never materialized" or saying in hindsight "prolonged lockdown is not needed because Covid-19 did not create the disaster the health community threatened." I'm aware of the source of this line of thinking, and it's just dangerous.

The social restrictions were successful, and a major reason why the worst never occurred. In several countries, not just the U.S., that led governments to repeal social restrictions to resuscitate the economy, provide child care via schools, and basically return to normal. All of these resulted in a more strict lock down anyways because the virus is so contagious.

Bottom line, I learned about this basic hierarchy of public needs in grad school and still agree with it:

Safety is right there at baseline along with the "animal comforts" of food and shelter. Where do you see education falling? It's important, sure... that's why I chose education. But just not as important as safety.

 

[Lee]

I’m 27 and if I got COVID I am fully confident I wouldn’t die.... I think I have a .05% higher chance of dying from COVID than the seasonal flu. So no, I’m not worried about it and neither should *healthy* nfl players.

So the lifelong heart issues at 20 times higher rate than death rate and lifelong lung issues at a 18 times higher rate than death rate that seem to have issues no matter what your age is no concern?

The issue is, and I know people have said this to you before...its not the death rate, its the permanent damage rate. Its like Polio, even if you don't die from it, many, many people were scarred for life.

Is this not a concern or you just choosing to ignore to fit your narrative.?

 

[Lee]

Obviously, if you don't open schools at all, you don't risk them transmitting COVID. However, as I said above, there has been a lot of stuff written about the importance to children of in-person schooling. Even the CDC supports it:

Communities, Schools, Workplaces, & Events

Cleaning and Disinfecting: Everyday steps, when someone is sick, and considerations for employers.

www.cdc.gov

Anyway, my point was that if you are going to have in-person schooling, then I'm not sure what additional risk you really are running by having athletics.

Probably the wrong thread, but my kids returned to school last week and are distance learning.

11th and 7th grade. Completely different than end of last year. Now I am lucky, my kids got to a STEM school and across the board the parents all have more resources and are expected to have access to a computer if you are going to attend the school.

But there school day is now much more normal, online classes are real classes, no more self learning, normal homework, cameras, etc. Classes schedule, just on computer all day. Lunch times are different, but scheduled, really they do text their friends all day while learning, but very impressed. Will probably be like this all year for them, if they do return, all kids will have option of learning from home, and the ones back in school will be forced to distance anyways.

That said, so many reason for kids to go back to school, sucks how poorly the country has done in get on top of this virus because nothing is hurting this country more than kids not in school....parents who cant work or have someone to watch their kids, lack of learning, lack of kids socializing, free lunch programs, etc.