I respect your opinion on this and I can see the logic, but I just can’t see this at all.
If you believe OSU football would have the same following without the top level prospects pushing them toward national titles every year...
First, why would that be the case? OSU would be no more disadvantaged than would every other powerful team, and shouldn't have any less chance to win a title. If some of the top players are getting skimmed off by the XFL, then the recruiting competition will shift to the second-tier guys. OSU , etc., will still have an advantage, and the other schools will be looking at the
third tier QB's instead of the second.
Second, even if you're correct, and it did slightly reduce the advantage of the Power 5 conferences, that just means more parity, right? Even more schools would have a legitimate shot at contention, and that's generally good for overall interest in the sport. I'm a Navy fan. Right now, we along with the vast majority of Division 1 teams have no realistic shot at a national championship. But if we
did? Parity would likely be a huge boon to college football overall. And would I be any less of a Navy fan if the top 3 guys currently on Navy had chosen to go play minor ball somewhere instead of going to the Academy? Hell no -- I wouldn't even miss what I never had anyway. I wouldn't give two shits about those guys, and wouldn't have a speck less of interest in my team.
The star players create the interest and the tradition in the modern era. Buckeye fans are used to OSU looking like a pro team at this point. Doesn’t it change a lot if suddenly all those guys are getting paid in a minor league type setup?
I don't agree that it is the star players who drive college football -- certainly not for the vast majority of college football, because the vast majority of college football teams don't have a J.C. Fields or J.R. Dobbins. And even for Buckeye fans, I suspect the
vast majority would still follow the team simply because they are still the Buckeyes and would still likely contend for a national championship. I suspect the number of college football fans that would ditch college football and defect to minor league pro football, to follow players with whom they have no school or other connection, would be very low. Has the existence of the G League or Euroleague alternatives hurt the popularity of college basketball? If you're really interested in watching the pros, why in the world would you watch the minor leagues rather than the NFL anyway?
I just can’t see OSU packing the horseshoe for a game featuring lower tier athletes.
But they already do. That's the entire point. NCAA football is clearly a tier below the NFL in terms of athletics, skill, execution, etc.. The best college players typically leave college and go to the NFL early, meaning fans never get to see how good they'd have been as a junior or senior, etc.. But losing those top players hasn't affected the popularity of college football in the least. Fans watch anyway because it is the competition between schools to whom fans feels some level of connection that is the real attraction for most fans. Of course everyone is more interested in their team if it is more competitive and successful, but that won't change because the bowl games, BCS championship, etc., will all still be the exact same.
Look, the actual number of players who will play minor league pro ball rather than participate in college football will be very low. You're talking about the very limited universe of players who 1) aren't good enough as a freshman to go right into the NFL as a high pick, but 2) would be good enough to go into the NFL as a high pick after their freshman or sophomore season, who also 3) don't place much value on a college scholarship/degree and 4) Also really don't value the college experience, playing in front of huge college crowds, or getting taught by college coaches. The vast bulk of those minor league teams -- who are unlikely to get paid very well -- will be of guys not good enough to make it in the NFL. So...I question the number of college FB fans who will abandon their team to watch the Columbus CrotchRotters.
In all likelihood, I think you’d see high school football really explode and college interest slowly slide. OSU pretty much gets all the top instate talent as is.
So fans are going to defect from "second tier" college football to watch third tier high school football? I doubt it. In fact, the appeal of high school football is very similar to college football. People generally don't go to watch high school football because they are the finest athletes in the world, because they're not. They follow the team because that is their school/town.
It just seems like you’d pretty much be left with a MAC type talent pool at the highest levels of college football if they weren’t doing anything to try and competitively compensate the top guys compared to whatever minor league system pops up. However, they stand to lose too much money if a viable minor-league system comes into play, so the NCAA will have to be proactive in preventing these guys from going elsewhere down the road.
There are tons of very good college players who don't bloom until their redshirt junior or senior year. All those guys will keep going to college. Many other guys will have families who insist on them getting their education, or at
least insist on them going to college for at least a year or two first to establish their value. The best non-NFL coaches and staffs all will stay with college football as well because the built-in fanbase and financial support will always be better than for minor league teams, and coaches generally
like college life. Minor league football will never pack stadiums like college football, and will never have the same degree of wildly enthusiastic fans and booster.
I think the number of true college studs who actually choose to play minor league football -- with everything that implies -- rather than go to college will be a couple dozen at most in every year. And they won't even by all the best players, because a lot of very good players will still want the college scholarship/experience/life. But it at least will give that choice to players who do value that minor-league paycheck over college.