Contenders' highs and lows
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By Peter Gammons
Special to ESPN.com
Sept. 11
There are the Cardinals, and then reasons that every one of the other teams realistically left in the division and wild-card races can make the postseason and why those teams cannot, reasons why those teams can win at least one postseason series and reasons why each cannot.
"We may not have a great record," said Padres GM Kevin Towers, "but get us in a short series with Jake Peavy and Adam Eaton starting three games and Trevor Hoffman closing and I'll take my chances. We can beat anyone."
Which is the way Cleveland thinks, with C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee, a combined 11-0 since Aug. 1 (going into Sunday) and 99-60 lifetime, and the best bullpen ERA in the majors. Or the way the Angels think, with Bartolo Colon and Kelvim Escobar added to their already strong bullpen.
Albert Pujols and the Cardinals have very few flaws.
St. Louis has the best record in baseball at 91-53. The Cardinals' run differential through Sept. 10 was 60 runs better than anyone else. They have the best staff ERA in baseball, are second in the National League in runs and bullpen ERA, have the best starting pitcher of 2005 in Chris Carpenter, and arguably the best player in the game in Albert Pujols.
"We're not the same dominant offensive team we were last year," said Cardinals manager Tony La Russa. "With all the injuries we've had [Scott Rolen, Larry Walker, Reggie Sanders and Mark Grudzielanek, to name a few], we've had to play a different style of game. It's a lot more of a grind. It's been hard at times."
As we near the ides of September, even though they are different than they were, even if Mark Mulder has had some physical issues and Matt Morris has a 5.51 ERA since the All-Star break, the Cardinals are the one team that has a right to expect that it should be in the World Series.
"I think the fact that we've had to grind so hard probably helps us if we make the postseason," Pujols said.
"With the possible exception of the Cardinals, every team has clear strengths and definite flaws that could be fatal," says one AL GM. "In our league, the Indians actually may be the most balanced. The White Sox have been the best all season. But are they a sure thing? Of course not."
Here's a look at the teams other than the Cardinals with a realistic chance at advancing in the postseason:
• The Braves have had a magical season with Andruw Jones, Jeff Francoeur, et al. Now that Chipper Jones is healthy, Rafael Furcal and Marcus Giles are producing at the top of the order, their offense, which is third in the NL in runs scored, can be depended on to help them win.
John Smoltz and Tim Hudson can dominate any series, although they still don't know what to expect from Mike Hampton. But there is the issue of the bullpen, with its 4.55 ERA. Kyle Farnsworth has been receptive to changes made by pitching coach Leo Mazzone and has been effective, but the Braves have no idea what he will do in the postseason. Understand, the Braves are not the dominant pitching team of the past -- they are last in the league in strikeouts and fifth in overall ERA. Yet they can beat anyone.
• "How can the Marlins be fighting for their playoff lives with that talent?" asks one of their division rival managers. Well, with Juan Pierre struggling to get on base (necessitating a shakeup in the batting order), the bullpen in front of closer Todd Jones inconsistent and Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett winning one of their last eight starts combined, there are a few reasons Florida is the biggest underachiever in either league.
• What Houston has done is a near miracle, and it has the best schedule among the contenders down the stretch. But how far can Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Roy Oswalt and Brad Lidge carry them? Even though Lance Berkman and Craig Biggio have carried the offense with Morgan Ensberg hurt, they still have scored only 601 runs, 13th-best in the NL.
• The Padres could be the first team in a full season to finish in first place and be outscored since the 1984 Royals. They have scored three more runs than the Astros, their starters' ERA (4.45) is the worst of any NL contender, they have Pedro Astacio and Chan Ho Park in their rotation and Ben Johnson playing left field.
• The White Sox have earned the right to be called the team to beat after the Cardinals because of their starting pitching, the potential to go Mark Buehrle-Jon Garland-Jose Contreras -Freddy Garcia is a strength for Chicago, as is its bullpen. But teams with a .322 on-base percentage have to be concerned playing a big offensive team, and while the bullpen has been very good, Dustin Hermanson has had some back problems. One thing going for the ChiSox is that manager Ozzie Guillen can play off the fact that so many people outside of the White Sox still don't believe in them.
• Boston can beat teams up, and if Curt Schilling's performance at Yankee Stadium on Saturday is any indication of what he can do the rest of the way, they can have a solid four starters with Wakefield, David Wells and Matt Clement. But they have that bullpen issue, as in a 5.39 ERA.
"Our bullpen in October can be better than our bullpen in September," says one Boston official. "If we can have [Jonathan] Papelbon and Bronson Arroyo in front of Mike Timlin, even if Keith Foulke doesn't come back, we can be OK."
But it is possible to imagine a couple of 6-4 eighth-inning leads that end up with many broken hearts.
• The Angels have very solid starting pitching, especially with Bartolo Colon pitching as well as he is and the improvement of John Lackey. Escobar looked great this week, and he adds much-needed power to the bullpen to go with Scot Shields and Brendan Donnelly in front of Francisco Rodriguez.
But with Garret Anderson and Darin Erstad beaten up, Steve Finley struggling and Dallas McPherson out, Vladimir Guerrero needs help.
"We have really struggled the last six weeks trying to score runs," said Angels manager Mike Scioscia, whose club is ninth in the AL in runs and severely lacks power. One source of help might come from Finley. "My problem isn't age," he says. "I hurt my shoulder on the wall the second game of the season, and it never got better. But it is now. I'm finally starting to swing the bat. I just need to get some at-bats."
• The Indians are the best-balanced team among the contenders.
"C.C. [Sabathia] is pitching like a No. 1 starter," says GM Mark Shapiro of his ace, who has 67 career wins seven weeks past his 25th birthday (of all pitchers who will be 25 at the end of the season, Carlos Zambrano ranks second with 46 career victories).
The starting pitching (3.73 ERA), bullpen (2.90 ERA), offense (678 runs, fifth in the AL) are all championship quality, and their great young players like Grady Sizemore, Jhonny Peralta, Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez and Coco Crisp keep getting better. Oh, yeah, and they have seven remaining games against the Royals.
But there are serious concerns about how so many young players will react playing with the wild-card lead and the Yankees and Red Sox looking at them. And while Bob Wickman is the comeback player of the year, one of everyone's favorite people and the AL saves leader, he is always a concern. Incidentally, if the Indians win the AL wild card and Boston wins the AL East, Aaron Boone will return to Fenway Park on Oct. 4.
• "What the A's have done is incredible," says a rival GM. They turned the team over, then lost their best pitcher (Rich Harden), two of their three best players (Bobby Crosby, Mark Kotsay) and their left fielder nicknamed "Ronald McDonald" (Bobby Kielty) ... and yet are still in it.
If they get Harden back healthy, and Crosby returns for the series against the Angels during the final week, never count them out, especially if the tired Danny Haren gets a second wind.
"Go into a playoff series and see Harden, Barry Zito and Haren, with the second best closer in the league [Huston Street]," says one AL scout. "They can sweep anyone. Or they can get swept."
• The Yankees can score with anyone, including the Red Sox, expecially now that Jason Giambi leads the league in homers and OPS since July 3.
The Yankees are very much like the Red Sox, toughened by all the games the two play against each other. But while the Yanks can win any series because of Randy Johnson and Mariano Rivera, the question will be whether Mike Mussina comes back and whether or not they can get a run of good starts from some combination of Jaret Wright, Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon.
The television people might not like this thought, but how great would it be if it came down to the last weekend of the regular season and the Indians, A's and/or Angels clinched along with the White Sox, and the Yankees and Red Sox finished it out at Fenway Park with the loser knowing it will go home?
