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Starting lineups - who in the 2 hole

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Who should bat 2nd in the order?

  • Gimenez all the time

    Votes: 8 33.3%

  • Rosario all the time

    Votes: 6 25.0%

  • Gimenez against RHP/Amed against LHP

    Votes: 5 20.8%

  • Something else.. What? Tito?

    Votes: 5 20.8%
  • Total voters
    24
sportscoach said:
Not really... Gimenez doesn't really get one base much outside of hitting, the same as Rosario...
Click to expand...
This is not "the same as Rosario" - completely disingenuous. Gimenez got on base 9.9% of the time via walk or HBP (ignoring intentional BB) while Amed was 4.3%. And this whole thing about "well he got on via the HBP" is silly, he has consistently done that so far and that's because he crowds the plate and they pitch him in and he takes the HBP. It's just another way of getting on.

Question might be if Gimenez's BB rate would go down significantly hitting in front of Jose, to compare apples to apples but 9.9 is not close to 4.3.

Who should hit in front of JRam though? Steven Kwan.
 
There is this tool which supposedly provides optimal lineups. I am not sure how it works, it's not very transparent but it only requires OBP and SLG as inputs and so I tried 3 different 2023 projections from Fangraphs and got 3 different optimal lineups. You can click on the links below to mess around with the projections and see other lineups other than the top one for a given projection, as well as the worst lineups (not surprisingly they have Zunino leading off, Straw at cleanup, and Ramirez hitting 8th).

ZiPS
Steven KwanJosh NaylorAndres GimenezJose RamirezJosh BellMike ZuninoOscar GonzalezAmed RosarioMyles Straw

Steamer
Steven KwanJose RamirezOscar GonzalezJosh BellJosh NaylorAmed RosarioAndres GimenezMike ZuninoMyles Straw

ATC
Steven KwanJose RamirezAndres GimenezJosh NaylorJosh BellOscar GonzalezAmed RosarioMike ZuninoMyles Straw

The Bat X
Steven KwanJosh NaylorAndres GimenezJose RamirezJosh BellMike ZuninoOscar GonzalezAmed RosarioMyles Straw

Could do others (edit: The Bat X link) but there are some pretty basic things that can be observed.
  • Kwan is always #1, Straw is always #9. Apparently OBP plays better in the 9 hole and SLG plays better in the 8 hole. Kwan's high OBP / lowish SLG is tailor-made for leading off (this is common sense but confirmed in results).
  • Jose, Naylor, and Bell are in the #2, #4, and #5 holes in some order. This makes sense given that these are the optimal power slots in a lineup.
  • Gimenez, OGonz, Rosario, and Zunino are in the #3, #6, and #7, and #8 holes in some order.
So the composite lineup would be basically the lineup that I suggested which itself was based off everything that I've read about optimal lineup construction (something which really entered the discussion around Tom Tango's The Book).
Kwan
Ramirez/Naylor (preferred due to being switch hitter to break up lefties)
Gimenez
Naylor (I prefer Bell and swapping Naylor to #5 due to L-S-L-S-L-R-R-R-R being superior to L-S-L-L-S-R-R-R-R due to less bunching of lefties)
Bell
Zunino/Rosario (I have more faith in Rosario here but Zunino is projected for high SLG)
OGonz
Rosario
Straw

Most strikingly, Amed is the #6-8 hitter rather than the #2 hitter... quite a big difference.

But, Amed is hitting 2nd. DEAL WITH IT.
 
Last edited:
"Why isn't the best hitter 3rd in the lineup?"

This is a question that I think makes tons of sense when you think about it. #1, #2, and #4 are actually the most critical spots in a lineup followed by #3 and #5.

The reason behind this is all in the first inning. If either of your first 2 guys DO get on, then you get the #4 hitter up to bat anyway. If both of them DON'T get on, then you invest in the 2nd inning rather than the 1st inning by having your weaker hitter hit in the 1st inning with 2 outs and nobody on. Having the better hitter lead off the 2nd inning makes the situation higher leverage for the better hitter.

I wonder if Jose was effectively promised that he would stay in the 3 hole sort of like how Bimbo said he was promised to stay at 3B. If he's comfortable there then you could probably just throw this optimality stuff out the door. I really just hope it's not because Tito likes it due to clinging to old notions. Regardless, with aging curves Jose might actually be the 4th best hitter in a few years so maybe it's unintentionally proactive.
 
I don't see how the answer isn't Gimenez, if last season wasn't a fluke. It was criminal hitting him 6th-7th so often last season despite being a top 2 hitter on the team.
 
I'd prefer to see JRam in the 2...Gimenez 3.

I am not sure Tito is reading my text messages to him, but it is OK -- he is busy.
 
My preference lineup. And I’m not considering handedness in hitting.

Kwan
Jose
Gimenez
Bell
Oscar
Naylor
Amed
Zunino
Straw

that doesn’t have the pure black hole at the bottom that the last several years have.
 
Alabuckeye said:
My preference lineup. And I’m not considering handedness in hitting.

Kwan
Jose
Gimenez
Bell
Oscar
Naylor
Amed
Zunino
Straw

that doesn’t have the pure black hole at the bottom that the last several years have.
Click to expand...
I prefer to order them alphabetically.

Second preference is Dewey Decimal system.
 
  • Haha
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