Steven Kwan Appreciation Thread

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Kwan hit .298/.373/.400 and scored 89 runs in a sublime, better-than-expected rookie season. ...In some fashion, Kwan breaks modern metrics, as his expected batting average based on quality of contact was just .268. The projection systems see him hitting in the .275-.285 range.

It sounds like Kwan had a lot of luck if his expected average based on his quality of contact was .268 and he was 30 points higher. If the luck evens out he should be regressing this year which is why they project him in the .275-.285 range. I would be fine with that as long as his OBP stayed around last year's .379 in the leadoff position.

Kwan is only 25 so he has not reached his prime and now that he has a year of experience in the bigs he should be expected to improve. So he might end up in the .290s even if he isn't as lucky with all those weakly hit balls dropping in this year.

 

[Benway]

The ban on shifts will not have an effect on Stephen Kwan, and it will positively affect many other batters. This should allow the rest of the league to "catch up" to him a bit, as far as batting average is concerned.

Perhaps he has a trick or two up his sleeve?

 

[sportscoach]

The ban on shifts will not have an effect on Stephen Kwan, and it will positively affect many other batters. This should allow the rest of the league to "catch up" to him a bit, as far as batting average is concerned.

Perhaps he has a trick or two up his sleeve?

He will have more pull hits in 23 because there will be more openings to the pull side

 

[Benway]

He will have more pull hits in 23 because there will be more openings to the pull side

They stopped shifting on him after about 2 weeks.

 

[Gson]

They stopped shifting on him after about 2 weeks.

This is correct.. Kwan was played straight up with only minor shading in the OF... What Kwan actually did was to start to take a few swings earlier in the count.. and hit the ball a little more authority.. and pull a few.. As @CATS44 said.. Kwan just needs to do what he did, but just better.. if he does.. watch out..

 

[Benway]

I called him "Stephan". D'oh!

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

The ban on shifts will not have an effect on Stephen Kwan, and it will positively affect many other batters. This should allow the rest of the league to "catch up" to him a bit, as far as batting average is concerned.

Perhaps he has a trick or two up his sleeve?

Well, according to Fangraphs...

Kwan against the shift: .279/.620 (191 AB's)
Kwan with no shift: .361/.814 (239 AB's)

He also had 46 AB's against "non-traditional" shifts (whatever that is) and hit .341.

So Kwan should benefit greatly from the elimination of the shift, which is surprising because I assumed it would affect him less than anybody since he's a spray hitter who goes oppo a lot. But the numbers show that his OPS was nearly 200 points higher when he wasn't shifted against.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Wow, it's not even close. Maybe he'll get more respect from the umpires this year and that will put him in better counts.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

From Zack Meisel in The Athletic:

Kwan ranked 18th in the majors in pitches seen and 15th in pitches per plate appearance. He had the lowest first-pitch swing percentage in the majors at 8.9 percent; Jesús Aguilar recorded the second-lowest mark, at 13.6 percent. The league-average rate was 30.9 percent.

Kwan ranked second in the majors in contact percentage and sported the second-best swinging strike rate. It’s clear what his strengths are: making contact and plate discipline. He did have the highest percentage of strikes looking and the second-lowest rate of pitches swung at, two indications that he could stand to be a bit more assertive in the batter’s box. More than one-third of his strikeouts were of the looking variety, the fifth-highest rate in the league.

Kwan plans on being more aggressive this year.

"I know I’ll feel a lot more comfortable this year in those counts. Early in the year, I wanted to be in that role of, ‘Ooh, this guy sees a bunch of pitches. He helps his team out.’ I totally abandoned, ‘I’m still a hitter.’ I think I can play into that role more and understand the situations, but still go for my chances.”

 

[macbdog]

It sounds like Kwan had a lot of luck if his expected average based on his quality of contact was .268 and he was 30 points higher. If the luck evens out he should be regressing this year which is why they project him in the .275-.285 range. I would be fine with that as long as his OBP stayed around last year's .379 in the leadoff position.

Kwan is only 25 so he has not reached his prime and now that he has a year of experience in the bigs he should be expected to improve. So he might end up in the .290s even if he isn't as lucky with all those weakly hit balls dropping in this year.

They aren't weakly hit if he's hitting them where he wants to, ie, where they ain't. Kwan isn't Myles Straw up there, wildly slashing away hoping to make any kind of contact. Kwan is putting those lil squibbers right where he wanted them. And as for 'weak hits', with an average of 85.1u mph, Kwan was still hitting the ball harder than any pitch thrown by Aaron Civale. The Ghost of Wade Boggs will just keep doing his thing, and the haters will just keep hating...

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

They aren't weakly hit if he's hitting them where he wants to, ie, where they ain't. Kwan isn't Myles Straw up there, wildly slashing away hoping to make any kind of contact. Kwan is putting those lil squibbers right where he wanted them. And as for 'weak hits', with an average of 85.1u mph, Kwan was still hitting the ball harder than any pitch thrown by Aaron Civale. The Ghost of Wade Boggs will just keep doing his thing, and the haters will just keep hating...

Kwan was slapping a lot of balls to left field. After a while left fielders started playing him shallow and near the line and they stole some of those bloops over 3rd base. His pull/center/oppo percentages were 31%, 34%, and 35%, respectively.

Being left-handed and with good speed he was able to leg out some infield hits (8.4%, Rosario was 8.3%), which is partly why his actual batting average is higher than his expected average. But as the league adjusts to what he does (like outfielders playing shallower) I think he will have to start hitting the ball harder more consistently to keep the BA up around .300.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Speaking of infield hits, it's crazy that Oscar Gonzalez and Steven Kwan both had 18 even though Gonzalez hits right-handed and had 201 FEWER at-bats. He has amazing speed getting down the line.

Oscar had five fewer infield hits than Rosario (23 to 18) in 275 fewer at-bats.

I'm really excited about Oscar. He has 40 HR power but also beats out a lot of infield hits. Now if he could only develop a little more plate discipline.

 

[Gson]

Plate discipline is a factor of comfort and baseball maturity.. SpongeBob is a lot of things.. mature is clearly not it.. In his case.. doing what he does.. even if it's swinging at a pitch that bounces three feet in front of the plate.. the likelihood is, he'll swat that too.. His superpower is the extension of his eyes to where the barrel of the bat meets the ball.. and that's not all bad..

 

[KluberSociety]

From Zack Meisel in The Athletic:

Kwan ranked 18th in the majors in pitches seen and 15th in pitches per plate appearance. He had the lowest first-pitch swing percentage in the majors at 8.9 percent; Jesús Aguilar recorded the second-lowest mark, at 13.6 percent. The league-average rate was 30.9 percent.

Kwan ranked second in the majors in contact percentage and sported the second-best swinging strike rate. It’s clear what his strengths are: making contact and plate discipline. He did have the highest percentage of strikes looking and the second-lowest rate of pitches swung at, two indications that he could stand to be a bit more assertive in the batter’s box. More than one-third of his strikeouts were of the looking variety, the fifth-highest rate in the league.

Kwan plans on being more aggressive this year.

"I know I’ll feel a lot more comfortable this year in those counts. Early in the year, I wanted to be in that role of, ‘Ooh, this guy sees a bunch of pitches. He helps his team out.’ I totally abandoned, ‘I’m still a hitter.’ I think I can play into that role more and understand the situations, but still go for my chances.”

I like it... I think he did it more in the second half so I hope he keeps it up.

That first pitch take rate was a huge exploitable flaw in his game.

 

[bob2the2nd]

Wow, it's not even close. Maybe he'll get more respect from the umpires this year and that will put him in better counts.

this was posted elsewhere a couple of days ago.

The possible explanation is that Kwan sees a lot of pitches and while the total number maybe higher than others, the percentage is of miscalled strikes is probably not outside of the general noise