Stocks to Watch Thread

[The Wizard of Moz]

Just have an insanely hard time believing Uber is a complete tank after IPO.

IPO’d up 22% from what it is now, and the immediate dip gives me a want to get in because of the fact that it owns 70% of the ride share market and has a quality brand name built.

I see more value than the $37 price point it’s currently at.

price per share really doesn’t matter. It IPO’d at an 82 billion dollar valuation in a historical IPO flop because it had difficulty even getting all of its shares out on open to the point that it was well below the IPO price by the time anyone was closing on it. Meaning investors didn’t really give a shit what the underwriters came up with for the IPO price, they themselves wanted no part of 45/share

The IPO price shouldn’t matter as much as the closing price of the first day (or whatever, a week’s average if you want to yell at me about volatility). The market didn’t value Uber at 82 billion, the underwriters did and they missed the mark

And I don’t even hate Uber. They have reasons to be optimistic and there was a period of time I thought there was value to be had (so I sold puts on it that expired out of the money, only play I’ve made on Uber has been a long play). But it’s got some serious hurdles to overcome and I could see it going sideways until it shows it can overcome some of those hurdles and stop spending down their cash every quarter

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

$37 is low for a company

37 is neither low nor high for any company. Price per share is only one part of a company’s valuation. If Amazon did a 30/1 stock split tomorrow their stock would trade at 71/share.... and Amazon would be worth the exact same amount because there would be 30 times the amount of shares.

what matters is market cap. The question to ask is do you think 70B is cheap for Uber. Otherwise you could be comparing apples and bayonets when 2 companies have similar share price but vastly different shares outstanding

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

5x???

That'd put it near $5,000 a share. Not too sure I see that type of potential there. Maybe 2x, but theres just no way they have that much more rapid growth than Amazon.

5 times puts it at a market cap of ~700B. If AMZN didn’t grow at all over that several year period it would still be worth 50% more

Seriously man share price in itself really isn’t telling. Like Bigfoot said they’ll probably split at some point

 

[KI4MVP]

You can only afford to play the long game for so long though. They don’t have any profits. Every quarter they’re losing about a billion dollars and chipping away at their IPO stash which is obviously temporary. Then the unappealing options of issuing more shares or issuing more debt arise if they’re still playing the long game while that pile goes away

but then again it’s pretty much what Tesla did for years and now their stock is on fire. I mean it was like a year ago Tesla was issuing junk bonds. So maybe Uber can play the same long game. But Tesla also went side ways for years while Most other stocks could trip over their own dicks and post a 20% annual return

There are trillions and trillions at stake for companies with interest in doing everything can to slow tesla. It worked for a while to keep the price down in at attempt to either delay Tesla or get them to fail by making it difficult to raise funds. Part of that is massively shorting the stock, part of it is spreading FUD. Shorts have lost billions and billions, but that's a drop in the bucket when trillions and trillions are on the line.

On top of that, there is another group who simply doesn't understand the implications of exponential growth, then doesn't believe the results when they happen. Some of these people are in the group with trillions at stake, others are simply idiots.

Plus in the initial ramp up of Model 3, Tesla was in serious trouble when they couldn't get it ramped up. Elon Musk literally moved into the plant to get the company through that crisis, then once the initial crisis was over, spend the next few quarters further optimizing things. Tesla is well past those issues today.

 

[Triplethreat]

5 times puts it at a market cap of ~700B. If AMZN didn’t grow at all over that several year period it would still be worth 50% more

Seriously man share price in itself really isn’t telling. Like Bigfoot said they’ll probably split at some point

Sure doesn’t mean shit, however it’s the simplest statistic for me to reference without going too deep down a valuation rabbit hole.... obviously share prices become more diluted the more there are on the market and more valuable the less availability it has.

That doesn’t change the fact that 5x growth in a couple years seems astronomical and unattainable to me. Not entirely sure about the 50% comment either.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

There are trillions and trillions at stake for companies with interest in doing everything can to slow tesla. It worked for a while to keep the price down in at attempt to either delay Tesla or get them to fail by making it difficult to raise funds. Part of that is massively shorting the stock, part of it is spreading FUD. Shorts have lost billions and billions, but that's a drop in the bucket when trillions and trillions are on the line.

On top of that, there is another group who simply doesn't understand the implications of exponential growth, then doesn't believe the results when they happen. Some of these people are in the group with trillions at stake, others are simply idiots.

Plus in the initial ramp up of Model 3, Tesla was in serious trouble when they couldn't get it ramped up. Elon Musk literally moved into the plant to get the company through that crisis, then once the initial crisis was over, spend the next few quarters further optimizing things. Tesla is well past those issues today.

You follow Tesla much more closely than I and I don’t claim to be an expert or anything close to it. I’m just commenting from the financial side that they did things that shareholders hate for year (additional stock offerings, issuing debt at huge credit spreads). I mean it wasn’t even 6 months ago that Moody’s confirmed their senior unsecured debt
as Caa1 which is past highly speculative into the substantial risk category.

You have been paid off for believing in a company you obviously know infinitely more about that me. I know insurance and the financial side of stocks. It made Tesla a pass for me. Now I wish I bought it at the valley, but who doesn’t? It doesn’t change the fact that it spent 5 years going sideways while almost every sector was dripping molten lava hot. If you had a FAANG portfolio the last 7 years you’d be better off than if you held Tesla during that same period. Which I mean FAANG are some of the best companies in the world, but even after Tesla exploding it’s still relatively way behind over a longer investment horizon. Just saying for people that think they missed the no brainer easy win of a lifetime, People for 5 years made basically no money investing in Tesla. If you’ve never held a stock that made no money for 5 years it gets fucking old

Not entirely sure about the 50% comment either.

700(1.5)=1,050

1.05T compared to Amazon’s current market cap of 1.06T

 

[Triplethreat]

You follow Tesla much more closely than I and I don’t claim to be an expert or anything close to it. I’m just commenting from the financial side that they did things that shareholders hate for year (additional stock offerings, issuing debt at huge credit spreads). I mean it wasn’t even 6 months ago that Moody’s confirmed their senior unsecured debt
as Caa1 which is past highly speculative into the substantial risk category.

You have been paid off for believing in a company you obviously know infinitely more about that me. I know insurance and the financial side of stocks. It made Tesla a pass for me. Now I wish I bought it at the valley, but who doesn’t? It doesn’t change the fact that it spent 5 years going sideways while almost every sector was dripping molten lava hot. If you had a FAANG portfolio the last 7 years you’d be better off than if you held Tesla during that same period. Which I mean FAANG are some of the best companies in the world, but even after Tesla exploding it’s still relatively way behind over a longer investment horizon. Just saying for people that think they missed the no brainer easy win of a lifetime, People for 5 years made basically no money investing in Tesla. If you’ve never held a stock that made no money for 5 years it gets fucking old



700(1.5)=1,050

1.05T compared to Amazon’s current market cap of 1.06T

With no growth?

Think I’m just misunderstanding what you’re saying.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

With no growth?

Think I’m just misunderstanding what you’re saying.

Yeah my bad it wasn’t clear. I mean if Amazon’s market cap stayed at the exact same value. A scenario where 7 years from now their share price is identical and they have neither issued more shares nor bought any back

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

Just bought a VIX put option expiring mid April. Just getting into options trading so playing with super small money, but options are neat

 

[natedagg]

Just bought a VIX put option expiring mid April. Just getting into options trading so playing with super small money, but options are neat

I am not bullish or bearish on your position, just want to make sure that you are aware that VIX options are European style expiry.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

I am not bullish or bearish on your position, just want to make sure that you are aware that VIX options are European style expiry.

You’re the best Dagg. This makes a hell of a lot more sense now with the hugely negative time value for some currently ITM options. Thanks.

 

[natedagg]

You’re the best Dagg. This makes a hell of a lot more sense now with the hugely negative time value for some currently ITM options. Thanks.

no prob man. Keep learning! Read Natenberg’s Options pricing and volatility. Considered “the Bible” for options.

 

[BMAN]

Anyone scoop stocks up last week?

 

[Huber.]

Anyone scoop stocks up last week?

I'll buy when the market is more stable than betting on the ponies.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

Anyone scoop stocks up last week?

I picked up a lot of SPY. Cost averaged down during the week. Im hoping for more buying opportunities

options are pretty expensive currently so I’d love to write some short term covered calls on my SPY position where I’m ok with getting cashed out