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I got in at $0.239 this morning.

Stock dove to $0.19, where I thought about buying more. Didn't.

Stock closed at $0.236 and is currently trading .244 After Hours. So essentially I missed out on almost 30% profits if I had bought the dip. They're releasing Phase II trial information next week. As well as phase III in a month. I think this stock has a chance to get to $0.50.

(Purely speculative still)

Bad bet on my part. (Seriously, that was what I was doing, betting/gambling) Stock has hit about .17 this morning. I sold at .19 to cut my losses at about 20-25%, (I was only playing with about $300.00, so I only lost $60.00 but it still makes me sick). I took that $60.00 out of my checking and right back into my Investment Account to punish myself for being so foolish and chasing large, fast returns. Definitely learned a valuable lesson though that I can carry forward. Won't touch penny stocks going forward.

I also missed out on some serious gains due while doing this loss.

My holdings:

Chegg, CHGG is up 5%
Shopify, SHOp is up 3%
AK Steel Holdings, AKS is up 7%
and Twilio, TWLO is up 2.50%

That's ALL only today. Most up 3-7% just this week.

Anyways, getting myself back on track and looking strictly long term.

Will check back in soon, because I'm looking at a couple long term Bio-Tech's like Gilead (at a price point of $66/$67). I need to do more research before committing.
 
Anyone planning on jumping in Costco? Getting pounded at least partly due to Amazon buying Whole Foods. Think that's pretty irrational fear. I wanna dive in but have held off for now. If it hits 150 I'm for sure in. Might pull the trigger beforehand. Will do some more research today
 
Can any of you guys tell me about expected returns?

I'd like to start doing some trading and even considering daytrading? I've got a good amount of cash sitting around doing nothing but I haven't the slightest idea as to where/how to get started.

Currently I'm working on some bitcoin/ethereum web projects and it's just got me back in the mode of thinking about finally investing into some stocks.

So I guess my questions would be (1) how much capital do I need to invest to actually make real money? (2) I'm fairly young and I'm open to risk, I'm young and the only debt I have is student loans and modest condo back in Waikiki; (3) what should I be looking at doing and where/how do I get started?
 
Chegg, CHGG is up 5%
Shopify, SHOp is up 3%
AK Steel Holdings, AKS is up 7%
and Twilio, TWLO is up 2.50%

For the love of god get out of AKS while you still can. Thing is gonna tank in next 3-5 years. The valuations are waaaaaay too high. The global demand is down and the prices keep decreasing.


Love Shopify, intrigued by Chegg, but not sure how much of a moat they really have. Don't know much about Twilio. Two companies I'm currently studying are Activizion and Take-Two.
 
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I love Shopify.

Why don't you do more picks of your own? A lot of mutual funds there, I feel like that's a bit overkill on diversification.

Do you mind sharing your Annual Return?


I don't pick a lot on my own because there is a lot of research that shows that passive investing beats active investing if the passive investor is willing to just ride the highs and lows. I am not a crazy investing mind. I pick things that I have done some DD on and believe in, but I can't do DD on 50 companies at a time which limits the amount of stocks I want to be in. Typically I sit on 4-8 at a time and re-evaluate every 6 months to a year. Sector funds (which I love) give me diversification in sectors I believe in (defense, tech, consumer staples) with low expense rates and a competitive yield.


With that said, for 99% of people (including myself), I fully believe that a three fund (or four fund) investment allocation (for me -60 Total US, 30 Total International 10 Total Bond) at my age (27) is the absolute best thing to do (add more bonds as you age). Set it and forget it. I mess around with sector funds and some stocks because I enjoy it, but I still never let it go over 10% of my portfolio because it'll likely hurt me in the long run.

My gains since I started investing (in HS) have been better in just the S&P (my 401k) & 60/30/10 allocated brokerage account than then with my individual picks.

Last year my annual return in my brokerage account (3 fund) was ~12% and the return on my stock picks/day trading was ~19%, but for 8 of the 10 years I've invested, my passive investing funds have beaten my picks. Only reason they ever haven't 100% of the time is because I got lucky on FB & Apple (in high school). I'm not saying don't pick stocks if you enjoy it. But make sure to put at least 75% of your money into index funds. They will likely do better than you and most certainly have less risk.
 
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Anyone planning on jumping in Costco? Getting pounded at least partly due to Amazon buying Whole Foods. Think that's pretty irrational fear. I wanna dive in but have held off for now. If it hits 150 I'm for sure in. Might pull the trigger beforehand. Will do some more research today

I haven't looked enough into Costco. I do however agree that the whole amazon thing is an iteration fear. People can't be buying all of their groceries through a website. So Kroger, Costco, Walmart etc. are probably all buys right now.

Also Footlocker is another super under-valued stock I looked into recently. Definitely thinking about exposing myself to a portion it.


EDIT: the more I think about groceries delivered to the doorstep the more wet I get. This could be a fucking brilliant business plan. Has anyone tried to take this on yet? A website where you pick everything you want, they deliver and unload it, after you've already paid online.

Could honestly be something here.


For the love of god get out of AKS while you still can. Thing is gonna tank in next 3-5 years. The valuations are waaaaaay too high. The global demand is down and the prices keep decreasing.


Love Shopify, intrigued by Chegg, but not sure how much of a moat they really have. Don't know much about Twilio. Two companies I'm currently studying are Activizion and Take-Two.

I'm not sure. I think AKS still has some good value. The stock traded up 6% today after analysts said they were reducing their earnings outlook. The 1 year target of 11.00 from analysts is just too iuicy for me to pass up on right now. I'll take those 40% gains and run, this is definitely not a 5-10 year hold for me. I know the industry and its direction, and is bleak, however this one is all about timing and value.

Also, I'm exposed to a solid amount of Activision already. First and foremost I like video games, so it's an industry that I'm very familiar with and one that's going to continue to grow into the future. Solid choice, because they're one of the best developers out there.


Can any of you guys tell me about expected returns?

I'd like to start doing some trading and even considering daytrading? I've got a good amount of cash sitting around doing nothing but I haven't the slightest idea as to where/how to get started.

Currently I'm working on some bitcoin/ethereum web projects and it's just got me back in the mode of thinking about finally investing into some stocks.

So I guess my questions would be (1) how much capital do I need to invest to actually make real money? (2) I'm fairly young and I'm open to risk, I'm young and the only debt I have is student loans and modest condo back in Waikiki; (3) what should I be looking at doing and where/how do I get started?

For you Gour, I'll say this. The best way to invest (in my honest opinion) would be to value invest. It's about as sure fire of a way to make money as humanly possible, and it's Warren Buffets strategy.

I'd advise you to pick up two books if you're really serious about this. My collegiate finance professor made me read these and they were absolutely excellent, shedding a different light on investing for me.

1. Security Analysis by Graham and Dodd
2. Value Investing by Benjamin Graham (same guy)

Security Analysis is super in depth and shows you how to actually place a value on these companies by looking at their cash flows/balance sheets and determining the amount you're paying on the dollar.

It's really really good and I'd advise that one to anyone who is interested in investing.

As far as the questions you had:

1. The amount of capital you need and the "real money" return is all based on what you think the meaning of "real money" is. For example, if you go play around in a Future Value calculator you'll see that if you started with $1000 today and put $2000 into your brokerage account yearly, while averaging 15% annually returned (high end, I know), you'd be a millionaire in those 30 years. So that's a million dollars for $61,000.00 invested. I'd say that's pretty solid.

2. Either way, you're going to make money. If you're willing to take the risk on, I'm certain you can have some very high annual returns going forward. Just by sticking most of the money you currently have into Tech and riskier stocks, with massive growth opportunities.

3. I guess I already answered this above. Buy Security Analysis at the very least and give it a read if you're serious about this. Try to stay away from day-trading because it's a MASSIVE learning curve (as if starting to invest already wasn't), but there certainly can be money made in this area. I read somewhere that day-traders can make anywhere from $1000-$8000 a month day trading with $30,000-$60,000. You have to have a ton of time and like I said the learning curve will be massive, and filled with mistakes and losses.

Also one last point, it never ever hurts to put your money into industries you know and like, and know will do well in the future. This can give a lot of people peace of mind.

Finally, I know you're a very intelligent person, so I'm sure whatever way you decide to approach this you will make money. It's much better to grow the money you do have now though, rather than it sitting there doing nothing.

USE YOUR MONEY TO MAKE MORE MONEY. Is there actually anything better than that???
 
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Some of my portfolio consists of:

VTI, VOO, VXUS (Vanguard ETFs)

AMZN (Amazon)
GD (General Dynamics - Defense)
NFLX (Netflix)
V (Visa)
STZ (Constellation Brands - wine, spirits, etc)
FB (Facebook)
SBUX (Starbucks)
PANX (Palo Alto Networks - high risk high reward)
APPL (Apple)
NKE (Nike)
LMT (Lockheed Martin)

Thinking about buying some Boeing - they just won a lot of contracts at the Paris Air Show and lots of jets will be replaced in the next 10 years. Lots of MD-80 through MD-90 fuel hogs and the new planes with the lighter weight materials in the coming years will pay for themselves very quickly over the old models.

Really wish I had about $10k to throw at AMZN back in 2008 when I first thought they were going to take over the world, which I still think. It'd be worth $125k now. But I was a poor college student, so....

Can any of you guys tell me about expected returns?

I'd like to start doing some trading and even considering daytrading? I've got a good amount of cash sitting around doing nothing but I haven't the slightest idea as to where/how to get started.

Currently I'm working on some bitcoin/ethereum web projects and it's just got me back in the mode of thinking about finally investing into some stocks.

So I guess my questions would be (1) how much capital do I need to invest to actually make real money? (2) I'm fairly young and I'm open to risk, I'm young and the only debt I have is student loans and modest condo back in Waikiki; (3) what should I be looking at doing and where/how do I get started?

If you're going to day trade, that has to be your full time job.

Keep in mind if you buy and sell a stock within a 1 year time span, you're paying full tax on whatever your gains are, vs. 15% tax on your gains if you sell it after owning it 1+ year.

I would recommend investing in companies that you feel will have tremendous growth long term, and putting the money in them for at least 5 years. If you want to make a ton of money quickly, you really have to get quite lucky. If 5 years ago you used Netflix and said, "wow, this is going to blow up in the future, and start shutting down the cable companies, everyone will have it in 5-10 years" and bought $10k worth of NFLX stock, it'd be worth $160k now. Same thing with the AMZN deal, which I think still has a ton of long term growth and have more money in it than any of my other stocks. Nvidia has had similar growth since they make a lot of the VR chips.

I would think with you being so into tech, you may be able to see things like this better than most for predicting the next Netflix, VR headset provider, etc. Maybe you have a 3D printer company to recommend??

Personally, I've had some winners and some losers, just like anyone. In the future I'm planning to go with limited individual stocks and more in the Vanguard ETFs. If you pick ETFs or mutual funds, Vanguard is one of the best as they have the lowest expense ratio (basically a yearly fee on your holdings which pays for them to pay professionals to manage the funds). VTI has an expense ratio of 0.04%... which means if you have $100k in the fund, you pay $40 a year to have it professionally managed. Compare this to a broker picking individual stocks for you.... probably is a $50 a year fee plus $30-50 a trade (may do 20 trades a year... $1k to manage).

At the end of the day, @Ob1 has it right, IMO. Put most of your money into index funds (which will mostly follow the market)... if you just follow the S&P 500, you'll average 9-10% a year over the course of say 15 years. You can pick a few stocks if you want, that you think will continue to grow over the next 5, 10, 15, 20 years (for me, Amazon, Netflix, Facebook are all 5+ year holds). Some people say FANG stocks are the way to go (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google)... or FAANNG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Nivida, Netflix, Google).

Personally I think defense stocks are a good pick during a Trump presidency. The company that makes the cruise missiles, Raytheon, is up 22% since Trump's win in November.

I haven't looked enough into Costco. I do however agree that the whole amazon thing is an iteration fear. People can't be buying all of their groceries through a website. So Kroger, Costco, Walmart etc. are probably all buys right now.

Also Footlocker is another super under-valued stock I looked into recently. Definitely thinking about exposing myself to a portion it.

EDIT: the more I think about groceries delivered to the doorstep the more wet I get. This could be a fucking brilliant business plan. Has anyone tried to take this on yet? A website where you pick everything you want, they deliver and unload it, after you've already paid online.

Could honestly be something here.

Absolutely no way I'm touching any of those except perhaps Costco, but even them, not more than a couple years. Amazon just signed a huge deal with Nike. Footlocker will be dead in 5 years, like most brick and mortar.

Amazon bought Whole Foods to learn the grocery game. They aren't planning to deliver groceries to my knowledge (to answer your question re: delivery, there's at least one app that does that, Shipt). They already have a crazy grocery concept going, where there are no checkout lanes. I forget the exact details, but essentially you go and shop, and when you exit the store, everything in your cart is scanned (RFID?) and charged to your credit card. Buying Whole Foods gives them more data and lots of buildings already standing where they just have to implement their technology. At worst, they have a successful grocery brand that they can re-sell. At best, their tech takes off and they can build more "normal" (aka not so expensive) grocery stores to compete with Kroger, etc.

Amazon is just on some next level shit. Bezos is a crazy and ruthless man. Brick and mortar is going to be blimps in the sky if Amazon has their way. 30 minute shipping. A giant blimp sits above every metro area (multiple blimps in some perhaps) and drones just fly back and forth to grab your orders. Meanwhile other drones refill the blimp shelves. Obviously some items can't sit in a blimp, but they want to put lots of items up there where people may want it in 30 minutes.

I'm actually worried that we'll be seeing the elimination of a lot of jobs very quickly due to Amazon, but I might as well make some money off of their success. If they have their way, cashiers will be a thing of the past.

And who's going to go to Footlocker when you can buy your Nike's from the blimp, have a drone deliver them, try them on, and if you don't like them, the drone comes back, returns to blimp, and gives you a different pair (if wrong size or something)?
 
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@gourimoko just edited my post to add:

Put most of your money into index funds (which will mostly follow the market)... if you just follow the S&P 500, you'll average 9-10% a year over the course of say 15 years. You can pick a few stocks if you want, that you think will continue to grow over the next 5, 10, 15, 20 years (for me, Amazon, Netflix, Facebook are all 5+ year holds). Some people say FANG stocks are the way to go (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google)... or FAANNG (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Nivida, Netflix, Google).

We need your insights into 3D printing companies!
 
Good thread. Kind of off topic but I actually just graduated Ohio State with a finance degree and will be beginning my professional career at Vanguard, so I'm pretty pumped. I'm obviously biased but index funds are definitely the way to go over the long run. You'll get the most consistent returns. I recommend reading Jack Bogle's (Vanguard Founder) book "Common Sense on Mutual Funds". Great book for anyone interested in investing.
 
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We need your insights into 3D printing companies!

I would need to put some considerable thought into this... I understand the technology very well and I've built 3D printers from the ground up ... but ... I've not looked at this from a company/brand standpoint.. I'm not sure if I'd have a lot to offer, but if I think of something that seems to make sense, I'll post it.. ;)
 
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Good thread. Kind of off topic but I actually just graduated Ohio State with a finance degree and will be beginning my professional career at Vanguard, so I'm pretty pumped. I'm obviously biased but index funds are definitely the way to go over the long run. You'll get the most consistent returns. I recommend reading Jack Bogle's (Vanguard Founder) book "Common Sense on Mutual Funds". Great book for anyone interested in investing.

Wow, congrats man, that's awesome! Agreed ETFs are the way to go... you have professionals managing your money and own thousands of stocks (in some cases) that way but at a low cost vs. having some broker pick 20-30 stocks for you. At my age, late 20's, I do want to still have a few companies that I own shares in, as I explained in my previous post, but as I get older I will move away from that. Right now, I can take that risk that Amazon, Facebook, or Netflix tanks (or that defense stocks somehow tank under Trump).

I would need to put some considerable thought into this... I understand the technology very well and I've built 3D printers from the ground up ... but ... I've not looked at this from a company/brand standpoint.. I'm not sure if I'd have a lot to offer, but if I think of something that seems to make sense, I'll post it.. ;)

So, question would be, is there an Nvidia of 3D printers? Maybe they don't make the printer but they make the vast majority of one important component (like Nvidia with VR headsets). It could be the company branding it as well, but if all of those companies with brand name 3D printers use one company for crucial component(s), that'd be the more sure ticket, I think.
 
So, question would be, is there an Nvidia of 3D printers? Maybe they don't make the printer but they make the vast majority of one important component (like Nvidia with VR headsets). It could be the company branding it as well, but if all of those companies with brand name 3D printers use one company for crucial component(s), that'd be the more sure ticket, I think.

I think I see where you going with this, and I would think the answer is no... Nvidia, AMD (w/ATI previously), Intel and ARM have patents that allows them to control licensing of technologies and really monopolize the marketplace.

In the 3D printer landscape, most printers today are still really just based on the open-source RepRaps; and this is why there are so many knockoffs of popular branded printers like the Makerbot Replicator because it, in itself, is just a knockoff of an open design.

There are 3D printing technologies that are coming that have more complex technologies; some are even out today... But the technologies are still very much work-in-progress...
 
I think I see where you going with this, and I would think the answer is no... Nvidia, AMD (w/ATI previously), Intel and ARM have patents that allows them to control licensing of technologies and really monopolize the marketplace.

In the 3D printer landscape, most printers today are still really just based on the open-source RepRaps; and this is why there are so many knockoffs of popular branded printers like the Makerbot Replicator because it, in itself, is just a knockoff of an open design.

There are 3D printing technologies that are coming that have more complex technologies; some are even out today... But the technologies are still very much work-in-progress...

Yep, you're spot on with where I'm going. if nothing is proprietary and can have hundreds of companies easily write their own tech, then it's not worth investing in at the moment, IMO. But it sounds like eventually you think there may be technologies that companies may patent. If there's a game changing technology that someone comes up with, that'd be the time to jump in, if 3D printing is going to explode in the next 5-10 years.

Speaking of AMD, I've been mulling it over... do you think they have a lot of growth potential? They had a big bump the other day when they announced EPYC, and they've had a couple jumps from chips for VR as well. I'm just not sure if they can really throw enough punches against Intel and Nvidia long term, but I'm also not a tech guru like you.
 
Speaking of AMD, I've been mulling it over... do you think they have a lot of growth potential?

I do.. and in a big way.

I think we're seeing the rebirth of AMD; and I think they'll hold a significant marketshare on both the desktop and server market over the next 10 years. Intel is literally playing catch up right now.

The best analogy I can think of is AMD sucker punching Intel in the mouth... I don't see anything on the Intel roadmap that has them retaking the technological forefront from AMD any time soon.

They had a big bump the other day when they announced EPYC, and they've had a couple jumps from chips for VR as well. I'm just not sure if they can really throw enough punches against Intel and Nvidia long term, but I'm also not a tech guru like you.

I think they've got Intel right where they want them to be honest.

Threadripper is going to take over the HEDT market, IMHO. Ryzen 5 makes the i5 pointless. And Vega will displace the totally mispriced 1080 series of graphics cards.

AMD is really hitting on all cylinders right now... and I say that as a I guy that has bought everything Intel has made for the past 10 years.. It's all that I buy.. But that's changing. I'm now advising folks to seriously consider, or just purchase AMD products... The Ryzen chips are just flat out better price/performance, and you couldn't say that about an AMD CPU since the Athlon XP!!!

ATI Radeon cards were always great; but since the 7990s and the AMD merger we saw Nvidia just start to dominate from the high-end on down. Vega looks to change all of that again.

Also, from my understanding, Infinity Fabric (Intel is using a similar technology called Mesh), is allowing EPYC and Threadripper chips to be made at very high profitability... FWIW... That doesn't mean much to me from a technological standpoint, but.. I do think the company, AMD, if managed correctly, should take off.
 
@gourimoko So if I'm reading your post correctly, AMD's new hardware is definitely better than Intel's, so should take a chunk of market share, and Vega will take some VR market share from Nvidia? Or is Vega not for VR? I'm not totally up to speed, other than knowing Nvidia dominates that space currently.

P.S. to everyone, didn't mean to hijack this thread, but hopefully this is decent insight for everyone...
 

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