Stocks to Watch Thread

[KI4MVP]

Because they already started taking orders. So many orders in fact that they had to stop taking them because they were getting so many.

The future is electric and clean energy vehicles, there is no doubt in my mind about that. Nikola looks to be one of the ones to pave that way.

The valuation right now is a little extreme, but there is so much potential here for the company going forward in the next 3-5 years.

they are taking pre-orders with $0 deposit and projecting revenues as if every single one becomes and actual order that includes they full revenue of using their non existent refueling service.

Founder cashed out $70 million while the company itself took out a $4.1 million PPP loan.

 

[Randolphkeys]

I just put my retirement into annuities for protection before the pandemic. Once we are out of this mess, I'm thinking about switching over to an S&P Index Fund, preferably one of top 500 companies. What are you guys doing with your retirement program during the pandemic?

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

I just put my retirement into annuities for protection before the pandemic. Once we are out of this mess, I'm thinking about switching over to an S&P Index Fund, preferably one of top 500 companies. What are you guys doing with your retirement program during the pandemic?

I pulled out early on. I've had my finger on the trigger since about December, wondering how long I can hold on until the recession I felt was inevitable hit.

COVID hit, I pulled everything out. I've started to buy back in. It's gone up. But I'm watching again. Maybe I should just pull back out now and avoid the loss I'll take in that first day or two... but I think there's going to be a second, much more significant hit to the market.

 

[Randolphkeys]

I pulled out early on. I've had my finger on the trigger since about December, wondering how long I can hold on until the recession I felt was inevitable hit.

COVID hit, I pulled everything out. I've started to buy back in. It's gone up. But I'm watching again. Maybe I should just pull back out now and avoid the loss I'll take in that first day or two... but I think there's going to be a second, much more significant hit to the market.

I would have paid through the nose in penalties if I pulled completely out. My understanding of annuities, at least the one I moved into, is you don't lose money when the market crashes but they take a big piece of the pie in a bull market. So I'm safe for now but once the market corrects they make a lot off my capital. Locked into being in something for the next ten years without getting smacked with penalties out of my ass.

 

[BMAN]

I just put my retirement into annuities for protection before the pandemic. Once we are out of this mess, I'm thinking about switching over to an S&P Index Fund, preferably one of top 500 companies. What are you guys doing with your retirement program during the pandemic?

Staying the course. I’m 28, I have time.

 

[Mr. Orange]

I pulled out early on. I've had my finger on the trigger since about December, wondering how long I can hold on until the recession I felt was inevitable hit.

COVID hit, I pulled everything out. I've started to buy back in. It's gone up. But I'm watching again. Maybe I should just pull back out now and avoid the loss I'll take in that first day or two... but I think there's going to be a second, much more significant hit to the market.

This May/June rally has been unexpected. But who knows...with the Fed backstopping everything maybe we go to new highs. Much of it depends on your time horizon. I don’t know anyone who has been consistently good at timing the markets. I usually buy the dips in my brokerage. Wish I bought more in late March. Kept buying a bit in April and May. Feel good now.

@Randolphkeys Vanguard is always my go to index. But your retirement should have a low cost option by Vangaurd, Fidelity or someone. You shouldn’t be paying more than 0.10% for that. Maybe lower.

I invest my retirement in the Target Date portfolio for my age. Set it and forget it. I buy on a schedule so it ends up buying in the ups and the downs.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

I pulled out early on. I've had my finger on the trigger since about December, wondering how long I can hold on until the recession I felt was inevitable hit.

COVID hit, I pulled everything out. I've started to buy back in. It's gone up. But I'm watching again. Maybe I should just pull back out now and avoid the loss I'll take in that first day or two... but I think there's going to be a second, much more significant hit to the market.

I spend pretty much every non working hour that I’m not on here researching this and I’m extremely split. This would be the first V shaped recovery from a true bear market. It’s already broken records for the best 50 day streak in US history. There is such an immense amount of greed and I think a lot of people such as myself as bears in bull clothing meaning I’ve got my eyes constantly on it and my finger is ready to pull that short trigger

But then on the other hand, this is an unprecedented event. At the same time that we have never had such a quick recovery, that was the fastest 35% drop in history. And that includes the period that included Black Monday where the S&P shed 20.6% in a day! (The reason we have circuit breakers now)

So with an unprecedented violent decline you have to at least entertain an unprecedented violent recovery.

There has also never been even close to this amount of stimulus deployed into the economy. We shot our load and then did it again and again. Household income actually increased about 10% in April. This ain’t ur mum’s recession. But at the same time spending was down 10% which is something to keep an eye on moving forward. Were people saving because they were scared or because everything was closed so most of their expenses were naturally reduced? An economy of savers is not what gets the economy moving. Fear of job loss->Lower spending->Lower corporate profits->corporate cost cutting->more job loss-> further reduction of spending is the basic way over simplified vicious cycle we are in danger of falling into

I will say IMO although there’s no way to definitively know this I find it extremely hard to believe the market is expecting a second spike in the near term. There might be itchy trigger fingers in fall, but if we see a big spike soon I think the travel sector goes right back down. Maybe people skip the middle step of moving money out this time and go right back to tech and stay at home stocks as the new safe haven because now they know the formula that worked last time.

I think there’s a lot of rough economic time to come especially now that it’s going to be harder to justify further stimulus with how much pimping of “better than a V shaped, it’s a rocket ship” we’ve got going on. I think there’s a chance we really do explode up, but I just think at some point the economics will catch up. But maybe not who knows! That’s why I’m wearing bull clothing currently. I do think there’s many others like me pretending to be bullish ATM who have little faith in the rally. That’s going to lead to a lot of volatility.

Also there was a massive net short position on S&P futures that as of last Thursday started to get covered which has helped this rally

I would have paid through the nose in penalties if I pulled completely out. My understanding of annuities, at least the one I moved into, is you don't lose money when the market crashes but they take a big piece of the pie in a bull market. So I'm safe for now but once the market corrects they make a lot off my capital. Locked into being in something for the next ten years without getting smacked with penalties out of my ass.

I work in annuity projections for my company. If you tell me the name of the product and what company I can tell you more about it. From what you described it sounds like a fixed indexed annuity with a cap rate and a floor of 0. Interestingly, even though the payoff of this type of annuity is driven by market performance, the cap rates (max you can earn) are actually tied to the hip with interest rates

 

[Randolphkeys]

I work in annuity projections for my company. If you tell me the name of the product and what company I can tell you more about it. From what you described it sounds like a fixed indexed annuity with a cap rate and a floor of 0. Interestingly, even though the payoff of this type of annuity is driven by market performance, the cap rates (max you can earn) are actually tied to the hip with interest rates

It's National Life Group Fit Rewards Growth, 457b. It sounded like a safe bet at the time, made official in March, but now I'm hearing some warnings from others. I'm starting to wish I demanded a Vanguard program. I'm considering cutting my monthly payment way down and open a 403b with Vanguard. I trust your advice if you can share anything you know about it.

 

[Out of the Rafters at the Q]

I would have paid through the nose in penalties if I pulled completely out. My understanding of annuities, at least the one I moved into, is you don't lose money when the market crashes but they take a big piece of the pie in a bull market. So I'm safe for now but once the market corrects they make a lot off my capital. Locked into being in something for the next ten years without getting smacked with penalties out of my ass.

When I say pulled out, I pulled it out of the funds it was in and into annuities--basically taking my cash out of the game and putting it into something safe.

I never withdrew from my retirement funds.

Sorry for the lazy wording.

 

[Cavsfan1985]

I actually took and bought Hertz. Figure it would be worth a short term bet. Stock up over 112% today. Have bought in various times over past few weeks and have more then doubled my money. Deciding if I cash out or see how high it goes. I went in willing to lose it all, so not sure when I want to pull out.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

It's National Life Group Fit Rewards Growth, 457b. It sounded like a safe bet at the time, made official in March, but now I'm hearing some warnings from others. I'm starting to wish I demanded a Vanguard program. I'm considering cutting my monthly payment way down and open a 403b with Vanguard. I trust your advice if you can share anything you know about it.

Yeah looking it up it’s a Fixed Indexed Annuity (FIA). Do you know what index you’re in and what your cap or participation rate is? There’s options to choose from so can’t tell which you’d be in just from looking at the product.

The surrender charge period is pretty in line with what I’d expected. 8% for 2 years then grades down to 0 over the next 7. Another thing I can’t tell from their site but is good to know is if the surrender charge applies to each new premium at that time or rolls from the original premium. So if you contribute more at year 5 does it separately track surrender charges (so 5% on the original premium to take it out and 8.5% on the new premium). My guess on this is yes but every company has their own wrinkles. Also I don’t have experience with 403b or 457b, but I can ask one of our product guys to give me some background tomorrow. There could be transfer rules I don’t know about. For my job I don’t discern how the money comes in, I just project how it grows and eventually how it goes out.

Without knowing the cap I can’t say how good or bad it is. It’s extremely likely standard as it’s an extremely competitive market where the profit margins are small or negative for everyone due to interest rates being so low.

The 2 crediting strategies it offers are declared rate and point to point. I think you are in point to point based on your post. Declared rate is basically just they give you an interest rate and that’s what it grows at, no relation to equities. The point to point strategy can be slightly different amongst products but the simplest type boils down to you choose an index you want to link to (this product offers the S&P and a volatility controlled fund. Given that this product already removes downside volatility and upside volatility is good, I think the S&P is a better choice but they probably offer a participation rate instead of a cap on the vol controlled fund)

Anyway the point to point refers to when your account credit is calculated. This product offers A yearly point to point contract. So after one year you look at the performance of the index you chose. Let’s say S&P. If the S&P rose 16% then that is what is used to calculate your index credit

This product has 2 types of index credits: a cap and a threshold. The cap is straightforward. If you have a 5% cap that is the most you can earn in a year. So in our example the SP500 went up 16% but you only get 5%. The other strategy threshold is kind of newer and I haven’t come across any yet, but it’s basically a ‘donut hole’ coverage. You get gains for the first 3% then there’s a spread where you get no gains, then if you clear that spread you start to get gains again. Looks like the spread here is 1.5%. I don’t actually know what the first x% you get is (I’m guessing it depends on which index you pick) but let’s just say 3%. So in this example you get 14.5% (the first 3% is yours, then you miss out on the spread of 3-4.5% then you get the next 11.5% up to 16% after the spread.

The floor for the product is 0 so any amount the S&P gets less than 0 you’re protected from the loss.

I know that was a ton, but if you find out your strategy and what index you referenced to I can help more. Also would be happy to just jump on the phone if it’s easier

I actually took and bought Hertz. Figure it would be worth a short term bet. Stock up over 112% today. Have bought in various times over past few weeks and have more then doubled my money. Deciding if I cash out or see how high it goes. I went in willing to lose it all, so not sure when I want to pull out.

As long as you’re willing to lose it all that’s the kind of tolerance you need for it. I’m curious, what attracted you to the stock? Do you think the shareholders will get new life after chapter 11 or was it the previous returns that enticed you?

 

[Cavsfan1985]

Yeah looking it up it’s a Fixed Indexed Annuity (FIA). Do you know what index you’re in and what your cap or participation rate is? There’s options to choose from so can’t tell which you’d be in just from looking at the product.

The surrender charge period is pretty in line with what I’d expected. 8% for 2 years then grades down to 0 over the next 7. Another thing I can’t tell from their site but is good to know is if the surrender charge applies to each new premium at that time or rolls from the original premium. So if you contribute more at year 5 does it separately track surrender charges (so 5% on the original premium to take it out and 8.5% on the new premium). My guess on this is yes but every company has their own wrinkles. Also I don’t have experience with 403b or 457b, but I can ask one of our product guys to give me some background tomorrow. There could be transfer rules I don’t know about. For my job I don’t discern how the money comes in, I just project how it grows and eventually how it goes out.

Without knowing the cap I can’t say how good or bad it is. It’s extremely likely standard as it’s an extremely competitive market where the profit margins are small or negative for everyone due to interest rates being so low.

The 2 crediting strategies it offers are declared rate and point to point. I think you are in point to point based on your post. Declared rate is basically just they give you an interest rate and that’s what it grows at, no relation to equities. The point to point strategy can be slightly different amongst products but the simplest type boils down to you choose an index you want to link to (this product offers the S&P and a volatility controlled fund. Given that this product already removes downside volatility and upside volatility is good, I think the S&P is a better choice but they probably offer a participation rate instead of a cap on the vol controlled fund)

Anyway the point to point refers to when your account credit is calculated. This product offers A yearly point to point contract. So after one year you look at the performance of the index you chose. Let’s say S&P. If the S&P rose 16% then that is what is used to calculate your index credit

This product has 2 types of index credits: a cap and a threshold. The cap is straightforward. If you have a 5% cap that is the most you can earn in a year. So in our example the SP500 went up 16% but you only get 5%. The other strategy threshold is kind of newer and I haven’t come across any yet, but it’s basically a ‘donut hole’ coverage. You get gains for the first 3% then there’s a spread where you get no gains, then if you clear that spread you start to get gains again. Looks like the spread here is 1.5%. I don’t actually know what the first x% you get is (I’m guessing it depends on which index you pick) but let’s just say 3%. So in this example you get 14.5% (the first 3% is yours, then you miss out on the spread of 3-4.5% then you get the next 11.5% up to 16% after the spread.

The floor for the product is 0 so any amount the S&P gets less than 0 you’re protected from the loss.

I know that was a ton, but if you find out your strategy and what index you referenced to I can help more. Also would be happy to just jump on the phone if it’s easier

As long as you’re willing to lose it all that’s the kind of tolerance you need for it. I’m curious, what attracted you to the stock? Do you think the shareholders will get new life after chapter 11 or was it the previous returns that enticed you?

Two things, how they filed chapter 11, not all Hertz business filed, and the biggest reason for filing was drop in car values, if they bounce back over the summer I could see them coming out of it.
Was more a shot in the dark, figured if they came out of it, home run, and the investment was something I was to lose. With the stock talk off today I bought more, if it the stock jumps like it did after hours tomorrow was a home run. Just have to decide if I cash out now or let it ride.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

Two things, how they filed chapter 11, not all Hertz business filed, and the biggest reason for filing was drop in car values, if they bounce back over the summer I could see them coming out of it.
Was more a shot in the dark, figured if they came out of it, home run, and the investment was something I was to lose. With the stock talk off today I bought more, if it the stock jumps like it did after hours tomorrow was a home run. Just have to decide if I cash out now or let it ride.

Thanks for the rationale. I never really play these stocks but usually watch from a far and most of the time wonder why I didn’t throw .1% of my portfolio at it as just a lotto ticket to see if it turns to .3%. But then I wonder if it’s just hindsight bias because my attention draws me to the ones ripping, not the ones that are run of the mill curl up and die like JCP (as I say that JCP shot up 94% today)

I got into DGLY today and my 15% trailing stop triggered to the damn penny before it just absolutely ripped. Was a super small position but damnit does it seem to always just touch the stop loss and then erupt

 

[Randolphkeys]

I know that was a ton, but if you find out your strategy and what index you referenced to I can help more. Also would be happy to just jump on the phone if it’s easier

Still digesting, and honestly defining some terms. I PMed you the few % they sent me, after I signed on which I didn't appreciate. Anything you can share with me would be helpful. I was straight up lied to that this "isn't a commission program." Big thanks!

 

[bob2the2nd]

I actually took and bought Hertz. Figure it would be worth a short term bet. Stock up over 112% today. Have bought in various times over past few weeks and have more then doubled my money. Deciding if I cash out or see how high it goes. I went in willing to lose it all, so not sure when I want to pull out.

At 80 cents i almost bought in. But i figured any amount in would ultimately go to zero.