Why the new playoff format could benefit the pitching-heavy Indians
By Zack Meisel Sep 22, 2020 16
CLEVELAND — A wise Cy Young Award front-runner once said, with regard to the MLB postseason: “A lot of good teams make it, but a lot of hot teams win it.”
That was Shane Bieber’s rallying cry last week after the Indians laid to rest a playoff seed-spoiling eight-game skid. Anarchy could reign supreme this October, with an expanded postseason field, an extra best-of-three round (the ultimate coin flip) and a lack of in-series off days.
That last wrinkle raised the antennae of every coach and front office member in the Indians organization. The league revealed the postseason schedule last week, and it received some nips and tucks that will force teams to either flex their creative muscles or cross their fingers and pray to the heavens that their seldom-used No. 5 starter can deliver a sufficient outing.
The Indians brass had been apprised of different scenarios under consideration but didn’t receive word of the final formatting decision until the night before the league’s official announcement last Tuesday.
There will be no off days between games during the wild-card series, the Division Series or the Championship Series. Only the World Series will maintain its customary cadence.
Now, the Indians have some longstanding hitting woes to vanquish and some bad base-running habits to rectify. And the American League bracket will be stocked with viable title contenders. Sparring with the Yankees or White Sox lineup is no simple task. But the Indians are confident their pitching depth could benefit them under these unusual circumstances.
“That’s what we’re planning on,” acting manager Sandy Alomar Jr. said. “Things can change when you have a good pitching staff. In 1995, when we faced the Atlanta Braves, they had a tremendous pitching staff, and we were the best offensive team in baseball, and they stopped us. Not a guarantee — you have to score some runs, too. But it’s always good to have a great pitching staff on your side when you go to the postseason.”
Teams usually shrink their rotations to three or four starters in October. They limit their bullpen usage to their top few relievers, barring a blowout.
In 2016, four Cleveland pitchers — Corey Kluber, Andrew Miller, Bryan Shaw and Cody Allen — accounted for 58 percent of the club’s postseason innings. Shaw appeared in 11 of 15 games. Miller and Allen appeared in 10 each. That sort of approach won’t be so feasible without travel days to recharge the batteries.
The Four Horsemen:
2016 ALDS: 16 1/3 of 27 innings
2016 ALCS: 27 of 44 innings
2016 World Series: 34 1/3 of 63 innings
So, pitching depth is critical. And that’s Cleveland’s calling card.
The Indians pushed back Shane Bieber’s expected outing to Wednesday to place him in line to start Game 1 of the wild-card series on Sept. 29. Zach Plesac and Carlos Carrasco could follow Bieber in the playoff rotation.
“The first round, the wild-card round, three games in a row,” pitching coach Carl Willis said, “I think we have very good starters, obviously, to choose from to pitch in those three games, and probably a couple of them (would) be able to help us in the bullpen. So I do think, in that regard, it is a bit of an advantage for us because of the depth and the quality of the depth.”
Should the Indians advance, they could add Aaron Civale to the mix and then, for a decisive Game 5, tab Bieber on short rest or turn to rookie Triston McKenzie.
The Athletic’s Eno Sarris
recently dove into some data to determine which teams might benefit most from the new playoff structure. He found that the Indians and Cardinals boast more above-average starting pitchers than any other team. (Now imagine Cleveland’s potential playoff rotation with Mike Clevinger still in the fold. Teams were not privy to information about the playoff format prior to the trade deadline. Otherwise, perhaps certain clubs would have made more of an effort to add pitching depth.)
Deep bullpens will help, too. If a team short on dependable starting pitching opts to resort to a bullpen day to navigate through a playoff game, that could further complicate its situation.
“We could look at it, in our case, as a competitive advantage,” Indians president Chris Antonetti said, “potentially, if we get to the second round and we feel like we have a very deep group of starting pitchers and are confident with any one of our guys starting a postseason game. If that means another team has to do the same thing, either that or plan for a bullpen day, it gets much more difficult to do a bullpen day in the postseason and still have those guys available for the other games.”
The AL playoff pitching picture
There’s more to a playoff series than starting pitching, of course. The Indians must supply José Ramírez with some offensive support. They must receive quality contributions from their bullpen. And aside from Carrasco, none of Cleveland’s starters has ever appeared in a postseason game.
Bieber was slated to start Game 4 of the 2018 ALDS before the Astros completed a three-game sweep. For Plesac, Civale and McKenzie, October is uncharted territory. Perhaps the neutral field and the lack of tens of thousands of hollering fans will ease the burden of postseason inexperience.
In seven starts this season, Plesac boasts a 1.85 ERA with four walks and 50 strikeouts in 48 2/3 innings. He has limited opponents to a .215 on-base percentage.
Carlos Carrasco could receive some down-ballot Cy Young tallies, as he owns a 2.90 ERA with 74 strikeouts in 62 innings. He has posted a 1.41 ERA over his last five starts and, most encouraging, his fastball velocity has increased in each of his last three outings. On Sunday in Detroit, the pitch clocked in at an average of 94.9 mph and topped out at 96.5 mph.
The Indians lead the majors in starter ERA and WAR. They lead the AL in starter FIP and strikeout rate. Those rankings reflect more than Bieber’s brilliance, and they represent the hope the organization is clinging to as October approaches.
“It’s going to be a dramatic shift for all 16 teams that do end up making the playoffs,” Adam Plutko said. “In general, when you’re building your postseason roster, you’re thinking about three starting pitchers to really carry you through. And the fourth, if you choose to have four, the fourth is, well we’re backed up by our bullpen. And you even look at, in recent history, so many bullpens starting games and not even choosing starters. With no days off, that just physically cannot happen anymore.”
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