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Changing RCF's index page, please click on "Forums" to access the forums.
The 2020 Cleveland Indians
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Lee
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I don't have the passion, time or knowledge to cover anything baseball. My knowledge is far greater in other sports. Not that it matters, but if you were in my shoes, living out here in Phoenix, able to afford to go to any number of preseason games and find the time, I am sure you would go to more than 2 a year. I appreciate this section because it keeps me informed, and I do have some knowledge, but I really would hate life going to all the AZL games in the dead of summer....no thank you. lol
NorthCoastBias
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Out of the Rafters at the Q
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bigfoot5415
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What do they mean here?
Out of the Rafters at the Q
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Driveline likes to measure things like spinrate, movement, etc. I don't know how they specifically judge "stuff" but out of every reliever in baseball, Karinchak and Clase top their board.
I know both Karinchak and Clase combine velocity and spinrate to have some wicked pitches. I'm guessing those are some primary factors.
BimboColesHair
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Indians have been working with Driveline since at least 2015. They've also been working with Cressey Sports Performance in that span too, who are similar to Driveline. They were ahead of the curve on everyone in the league on those training systems and embracing them, a lot of which was because Bauer was here.
Even with Matt Blake leaving, who was their connection to Cressey, most of the internal pitching guys in the organization have been heavily influenced by both training sites.
sportscoach
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I do enjoy this forum since to me it is one of the best forums on the web and with @The Human Q-Tip being a mod now, it really has become even better at the end of the day.
Honestly what I said was hypothetical but at the end of the day, if I win the lotto I would be paying ya to do it and it would pretty much be just you writing about the games and players ya saw. You would have extra tickets to bring family/friends.
That would be cool, but it would be hard to coordinate everyone since we all work, don’t live in the same area etc. Today’s tech it is possible, but honestly still be hard to do. Though a podcast, YouTube channel, news page that people can read would all be cool to have in a sense, just need funding and time for those who are wanting to do it lol
Last edited:
sportscoach
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I think that’s why we were willing to trade Kluber for Clase, we badly needed a guy like Clase and we won 93 games without Kluber, so on paper it could be a very good trade if he becomes a very good setup/closer in due time. The FO I trust, so let’s just hope the two guys reach their potential with that stuff
bigfoot5415
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What's the control situation like on Clase and Kar.... whatever his name is lol?
Out of the Rafters at the Q
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Last year was the first time either appeared in the bigs, so 6 more years of team control for each.
MadThinker88
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I assume you mean club control of the player & not the pitchers control of the strike zone.
Both are under control thru the 2025 season (unless there is a change with the next CBA).
Here is a good (free/ open) resource for referencing team control & player salaries.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CLE/cleveland-indians-salaries-and-contracts.shtml
Enjoy.
PECOTA projects few surprises for Indians in 2020
Lindor: great! Outfield: poor!
By Chris D. Davies Feb 7, 2020, 11:53am EST
Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images
It’s PECOTA Week over at Baseball Prospectus, and that means more projections. The BP folks revamped their model this year, and they claim their accuracy is improved, particularly with respect to MiLB pitching. Read more about the whole thing here.
If you read through the ZiPS projections from FanGraphs earlier this week, you get the idea. Below are some of the things that stood out to me while perusing the individual player projections .
Offense
There are very few surprises among the Tribe hitters: Francisco Lindor is going to be elite again, with a projected 30-home run season and a DRC+ of 123, part of a projected 3.9 WARP season. Also unsurprising is that PECOTA likes Carlos Santana and José Ramírez; what is surprising is that PECOTA likes them in that order. Despite having seven years on the GOAT, Santana is projected for 3.3 WARP whereas Ramírez is projected for 2.5. Some of this comes down to defense, as Santana is projected for 1.0 FRAA at first and José is projected for -2 FRAA at third. The comparables for Ramírez include Nolan Arenado, Adrián Beltré, and Brooks Robinson, however, so it seems safe to say their 50th percentile projection has a considerable amount of uncertainty.
The Indians outfield, as everyone was already aware, is not projected to be great. Tyler Naquin, who is trying his hardest to return from an ACL injury by opening day, is projected as the best outfielder on the Indians, with the same 1.8 WARP projection as Franmil Reyes. Reyes, of course is projected to be a better hitter (121 vs 105 DRC+ and 31 vs. 10 HR), but Naquin has the second-highest defensive projection on the team (10 FRAA). The only other outfielder projected to be worth at least 1.0 WARP is Ka’ai Tom, who has never played a big league game. New addition Delino DeShields is projected for good defense, with 4 FRAA in center, but atrocious offense, with just 78 DRC+. Jordan Luplow is projected for better offense, with 114 DRC+, and has Shin-Soo Choo as his top comparable player, but only has 175 plate appearances projected, limiting his WARP to 0.7.
One big notable and negative takeaway from the PECOTA projections is that Oscar Mercado obviously killed the engine’s mother. Otherwise, it is really hard for me to understand how much of an outlier he is in the projections. Mercado is projected for 560 PA, as many as Ramírez, but just 0.1 WARP and 81 DRC+. The system projects 16 HR and above-average center field defense (2 FRAA) to go with 35 walks (6.25 BB%) and 108 strikeouts (19.2%), all of which makes me think his variance must be quite high as well, with the likelihood of a sophomore slump slightly outweighing solid contributions.
Catching
No one values catching quite like BP. FanGraphs made their WAR take catching defense, and all that entails, into account better last year, but there’s still no one valuing catchers quite like BP. Thus, it should come as no surprise that Roberto Pérez is projected to dominate behind the plate again this year.
At catcher, Robo is projected to be worth 25 FRAA in 2020, which is eye-watering. Only one other player in all of baseball is projected to be better; unfortunately, that player now resides in the AL Central and is new White Sox backstop Yasmani Grandal (28 FRAA). Although Francona is on record saying he’ll be less tempted to use Pérez as a late-inning defensive sub on his days off, he still does has a big advantage over backup Sandy León, who is projected for just 1 FRAA.
Neither catcher is expected to be much of a hitter, but Pérez is projected to hit 17 HR next year and post an 89 DRC+. León, on the other hand, is projected for a slash of .217/.281/.351 and a 67 DRC+.
Pitching
Shane Bieber (14th), Mike Clevinger (23rd), and Carlos Carrasco (35th) have elite projections, all in the 97th percentile or above among all pitchers by PECOTA. All three have deserved run averages (DRA) between 3.72 and 3.81, DRA- of 80 or below, K/9 above 11.2, and BB/9 below 4.0. Those projections would make the Indians’ top three about as tough as any in the league, with WARP projections of 3.64, 3.04, and 2.51 for Bieber, Clevinger, and Carrasco, respectively.
However, after those three, the WARP projections are not great. The starter PECOTA likes best, perhaps surprisingly, is Zach Plesac, who is projected to be worth 0.85 WARP but to have above-average DRA- at 102. Aaron Civale is projected for 23 starts but just a 113 DRA- and 0.14 WARP. The only other pitchers projected to start for Cleveland are Scott Moss (-0.01 WARP), Adam Plutko (-0.28 WARP), Logan Allen (-0.72 WARP), and Jefry Rodriguez (-0.81 WARP).
PECOTA does seem to like the Indians bullpen, however. Brad Hand is expected to rebound from a tough second half of 2019 with 0.81 WARP in 2020. He, as well as Oliver Pérez, James Hoyt, and Nick Wittgren are all projected to be better than average in terms of DRA-, with each pitcher projected to have a DRA- below 84. The BP system does not, however, think Emmanuel Clase and James Karinchak are ready to dominate. Despite big strikeout numbers in the minors and dominating stuff, neither Clase nor Karinchak are projected above-average in terms of DRA- and are pegged for 0.13 and 0.09 WARP, respectively.
Prospects
Besides Tom, mentioned with the outfielders, a few prospects got some love in PECOTA’s projections. Dorssys Paulino, for instance, is projected to be better than DeShields by WARP (0.9) and DRC+ (91). Likewise, PECOTA believes Nolan Jones could be an above-average hitter this year, projecting a DRC+ of 102 for the 22 year old. Daniel Johnson, however, does not get much of an endorsement from the system, as he’s projected for 0.2 WARP and just 99 DRC+.
On the pitching side, PECOTA likes both Jean Carlos Mejia and Triston McKenzie better than other starting pitching options. Although the system does not project them to start, it does have above-average DRA- (94 and 97) and better WARP (0.23 and 0.18) projections for Mejia and McKenzie, respectively, than for Civale.
One other thing to note, although it remains unclear whether or not it truly is Indians related yet, Domingo Santana is projected for 0.9 WARP and 112 DRC+. He would be sixth best player on the Indians by DRC+ and fourth best outfielder by WARP (after Tom). Although his projected 33.4% strikeout rate is still frightening, his top comp this year is Jay Bruce, which wouldn’t be too bad to have around.
Lindor: great! Outfield: poor!
By Chris D. Davies Feb 7, 2020, 11:53am EST
It’s PECOTA Week over at Baseball Prospectus, and that means more projections. The BP folks revamped their model this year, and they claim their accuracy is improved, particularly with respect to MiLB pitching. Read more about the whole thing here.
If you read through the ZiPS projections from FanGraphs earlier this week, you get the idea. Below are some of the things that stood out to me while perusing the individual player projections .
Offense
There are very few surprises among the Tribe hitters: Francisco Lindor is going to be elite again, with a projected 30-home run season and a DRC+ of 123, part of a projected 3.9 WARP season. Also unsurprising is that PECOTA likes Carlos Santana and José Ramírez; what is surprising is that PECOTA likes them in that order. Despite having seven years on the GOAT, Santana is projected for 3.3 WARP whereas Ramírez is projected for 2.5. Some of this comes down to defense, as Santana is projected for 1.0 FRAA at first and José is projected for -2 FRAA at third. The comparables for Ramírez include Nolan Arenado, Adrián Beltré, and Brooks Robinson, however, so it seems safe to say their 50th percentile projection has a considerable amount of uncertainty.
The Indians outfield, as everyone was already aware, is not projected to be great. Tyler Naquin, who is trying his hardest to return from an ACL injury by opening day, is projected as the best outfielder on the Indians, with the same 1.8 WARP projection as Franmil Reyes. Reyes, of course is projected to be a better hitter (121 vs 105 DRC+ and 31 vs. 10 HR), but Naquin has the second-highest defensive projection on the team (10 FRAA). The only other outfielder projected to be worth at least 1.0 WARP is Ka’ai Tom, who has never played a big league game. New addition Delino DeShields is projected for good defense, with 4 FRAA in center, but atrocious offense, with just 78 DRC+. Jordan Luplow is projected for better offense, with 114 DRC+, and has Shin-Soo Choo as his top comparable player, but only has 175 plate appearances projected, limiting his WARP to 0.7.
One big notable and negative takeaway from the PECOTA projections is that Oscar Mercado obviously killed the engine’s mother. Otherwise, it is really hard for me to understand how much of an outlier he is in the projections. Mercado is projected for 560 PA, as many as Ramírez, but just 0.1 WARP and 81 DRC+. The system projects 16 HR and above-average center field defense (2 FRAA) to go with 35 walks (6.25 BB%) and 108 strikeouts (19.2%), all of which makes me think his variance must be quite high as well, with the likelihood of a sophomore slump slightly outweighing solid contributions.
Catching
No one values catching quite like BP. FanGraphs made their WAR take catching defense, and all that entails, into account better last year, but there’s still no one valuing catchers quite like BP. Thus, it should come as no surprise that Roberto Pérez is projected to dominate behind the plate again this year.
At catcher, Robo is projected to be worth 25 FRAA in 2020, which is eye-watering. Only one other player in all of baseball is projected to be better; unfortunately, that player now resides in the AL Central and is new White Sox backstop Yasmani Grandal (28 FRAA). Although Francona is on record saying he’ll be less tempted to use Pérez as a late-inning defensive sub on his days off, he still does has a big advantage over backup Sandy León, who is projected for just 1 FRAA.
Neither catcher is expected to be much of a hitter, but Pérez is projected to hit 17 HR next year and post an 89 DRC+. León, on the other hand, is projected for a slash of .217/.281/.351 and a 67 DRC+.
Pitching
Shane Bieber (14th), Mike Clevinger (23rd), and Carlos Carrasco (35th) have elite projections, all in the 97th percentile or above among all pitchers by PECOTA. All three have deserved run averages (DRA) between 3.72 and 3.81, DRA- of 80 or below, K/9 above 11.2, and BB/9 below 4.0. Those projections would make the Indians’ top three about as tough as any in the league, with WARP projections of 3.64, 3.04, and 2.51 for Bieber, Clevinger, and Carrasco, respectively.
However, after those three, the WARP projections are not great. The starter PECOTA likes best, perhaps surprisingly, is Zach Plesac, who is projected to be worth 0.85 WARP but to have above-average DRA- at 102. Aaron Civale is projected for 23 starts but just a 113 DRA- and 0.14 WARP. The only other pitchers projected to start for Cleveland are Scott Moss (-0.01 WARP), Adam Plutko (-0.28 WARP), Logan Allen (-0.72 WARP), and Jefry Rodriguez (-0.81 WARP).
PECOTA does seem to like the Indians bullpen, however. Brad Hand is expected to rebound from a tough second half of 2019 with 0.81 WARP in 2020. He, as well as Oliver Pérez, James Hoyt, and Nick Wittgren are all projected to be better than average in terms of DRA-, with each pitcher projected to have a DRA- below 84. The BP system does not, however, think Emmanuel Clase and James Karinchak are ready to dominate. Despite big strikeout numbers in the minors and dominating stuff, neither Clase nor Karinchak are projected above-average in terms of DRA- and are pegged for 0.13 and 0.09 WARP, respectively.
Prospects
Besides Tom, mentioned with the outfielders, a few prospects got some love in PECOTA’s projections. Dorssys Paulino, for instance, is projected to be better than DeShields by WARP (0.9) and DRC+ (91). Likewise, PECOTA believes Nolan Jones could be an above-average hitter this year, projecting a DRC+ of 102 for the 22 year old. Daniel Johnson, however, does not get much of an endorsement from the system, as he’s projected for 0.2 WARP and just 99 DRC+.
On the pitching side, PECOTA likes both Jean Carlos Mejia and Triston McKenzie better than other starting pitching options. Although the system does not project them to start, it does have above-average DRA- (94 and 97) and better WARP (0.23 and 0.18) projections for Mejia and McKenzie, respectively, than for Civale.
One other thing to note, although it remains unclear whether or not it truly is Indians related yet, Domingo Santana is projected for 0.9 WARP and 112 DRC+. He would be sixth best player on the Indians by DRC+ and fourth best outfielder by WARP (after Tom). Although his projected 33.4% strikeout rate is still frightening, his top comp this year is Jay Bruce, which wouldn’t be too bad to have around.