The Gabriel Arias Thread

[thestatman]

Fry in the 2 hole today. Wish SV would find this guy more p.t.

 

[KluberSociety]

I don't think Arias is an elite defender by MLB standards but so far he has been average to a bit above at SS while Rocchio has been much below average.

By average I mean 0 on the defensive metrics which are calibrated to the MLB average, and MLB shortstops are really damn good on average so average is actually damn good.

 

[mopete12]

There's a 130 point BABIP gap between the two right now and they still they have the same OBP.

Arias won't survive with a sub 300 OBP, it's as easy as that. It's bad enough he'll struggle to hit 220, but every low BA/power bat at least takes his walks to have a decent OBP. I can't think of a good ML player who has a sub 300 OBP.

It's still an approach problem with Arias. I just don't see any plan or development. And when he tries to implement a plan, he obviously is hampered by it and reverts back to see ball hit ball.

With Rocchio, you can see selectivity. He's not passive, he swings and misses too, but you can see he has a plan at the plate. He works counts, takes his walks. The Statcast data is much improved too. In terms of development, he's taking the right steps.

I don't see much development with Arias, he's still the guy he was last year, alternating ice cold with scorching hot. His best ABs was when he ambushed a pitch early in the count left in the zone. On one hand, it's good he crushed those, otoh it's not a sustainable approach.
My favorite Arias AB was the walk he worked after he hit two XBH in that game in Boston. He was comfortable in the box and didn't chase. He needs to get there more consistently.

Arias has shown development at the plate in one key area: launch angle. Because of his lack of hit tool, he needs to damage the pitches he does make contact with. Average launch angle in 2023 was 3.7 and is currently at 14.3 degrees this year. Ground ball % was 52.3% last year and is 37% this year.

I completely agree that he needs to improve his contact rate and walk rate, but in 2022 Willie Adames had 4.4 fWAR with a .298 OBP and in 2023 he put up 3.3 fWAR with a .310 OBP. So while it’s rare, it’s still possible for Arias to be an everyday player if he plays good defense and hits for some power.

 

[Tondo]

Arias has shown development at the plate in one key area: launch angle. Because of his lack of hit tool, he needs to damage the pitches he does make contact with. Average launch angle in 2023 was 3.7 and is currently at 14.3 degrees this year. Ground ball % was 52.3% last year and is 37% this year.

I completely agree that he needs to improve his contact rate and walk rate, but in 2022 Willie Adames had 4.4 fWAR with a .298 OBP and in 2023 he put up 3.3 fWAR with a .310 OBP. So while it’s rare, it’s still possible for Arias to be an everyday player if he plays good defense and hits for some power.

Fair enough.

It's a good sign he's trying to elevate the ball more. He needs to do that. Watching his ABs, I would just throw him crap outside and wait the he gets himself out. It's the Amed playbook.

 

[smalls1129]

Fair enough.

It's a good sign he's trying to elevate the ball more. He needs to do that. Watching his ABs, I would just throw him crap outside and wait the he gets himself out. It's the Amed playbook.

One big difference, Amed flies out to center or right on anything up and away, Arias has Manny/Belle like power to RCF with an effortless swing when he's on.