The Jarvis Landry Thread: Bless 'Em

[col63onel]

This is a career yer for Landry

He's on pace for 86 catches, 1226yds, 7td, 8.7 y/t, 14.4 tpc and 76.6 y/g. The yards, y/t, y/c and y/g would be career highs, TDs would be 2nd highest. Catches would actually be just to more than his second lowest, and his catch rate is his lwoest since his rookie year. He's also on pace for 141 targets, and his career average is 144. His y/t is actually tied with 2016 as his high, but his next highest is 7.0, which is also his career average.

I think this qualifies as a career year and noticeably better than any year he's had, save 2016. This is PEAK Landry.

His league ranks in those categories.

Catches - 18th
Yards - 10th
y/c - 33rd
TDs - t16th
y/t - t45th
catches/game -25th
y/g - 13th

targets - 11th
catch rate - 63rd among WRs/ 147th in NFL (I think comparing him vs RBs and TEs in this metric is ignoring too much context. I had to count out where he was among WRs because I couldn't get PFR to sort like that so 63rd might be a little off.)

When you put all those numbers together, where does he rank among WRs in the NFL? It's a tough call without looking at where every player ranks in those categories. I think something in the high teens/low 20s is fair, given that he's only top 10 in one category and his rate stats are still solid but well outside top 10 range. So he's what...the 18th best WR this year? 20th? 22nd? I think somewhere in that range is objectively a fair ranking.

Keep in mind, he has the 10th highest average value contract among NFL WRs and is the 7th highest paid this year. If this was a "normal" year for him, he's still probably a little overpaid. But this is a CAREER year for him, and he still isn't quite producing what his contract says he should.

His game against Baltimore was undeniably great and his game against Miami was great. His overall year has been really good. But the "he isn't living up to his contract" argument I think is still very valid when you look at what he's done both this year and over the course of his career. I know it's fun to take a victory lap when he has a great game like he did, but is that because you really objectively think he's that good?

 

[I'mWithDan]

Really a missed opportunity. I laid out the argument but got cold feet.

Watching @The Wizard of Moz donate $100 in Landry's name would have been very satisfying.

 

[Urban]

Keep in mind, he has the 10th highest average value contract among NFL WRs and is the 7th highest paid this year. If this was a "normal" year for him, he's still probably a little overpaid. But this is a CAREER year for him, and he still isn't quite producing what his contract says he should.

His game against Baltimore was undeniably great and his game against Miami was great. His overall year has been really good. But the "he isn't living up to his contract" argument I think is still very valid when you look at what he's done both this year and over the course of his career. I know it's fun to take a victory lap when he has a great game like he did, but is that because you really objectively think he's that good?

This is a league where we typically see players get paid a tier above their true worth. Unless the player is truly elite, they're probably going to be overpaid once they hit free agency for the first time.

 

[col63onel]

This is a league where we typically see players get paid a tier above their true worth. Unless the player is truly elite, they're probably going to be overpaid once they hit free agency for the first time.

Which would be fine, if 2019 Jarvis was typical Jarvis.

 

[I'mWithDan]

This is a career yer for Landry

He's on pace for 86 catches, 1226yds, 7td, 8.7 y/t, 14.4 tpc and 76.6 y/g. The yards, y/t, y/c and y/g would be career highs, TDs would be 2nd highest. Catches would actually be just to more than his second lowest, and his catch rate is his lwoest since his rookie year. He's also on pace for 141 targets, and his career average is 144. His y/t is actually tied with 2016 as his high, but his next highest is 7.0, which is also his career average.

I think this qualifies as a career year and noticeably better than any year he's had, save 2016. This is PEAK Landry.

His league ranks in those categories.

Catches - 18th
Yards - 10th
y/c - 33rd
TDs - t16th
y/t - t45th
catches/game -25th
y/g - 13th

targets - 11th
catch rate - 63rd among WRs/ 147th in NFL (I think comparing him vs RBs and TEs in this metric is ignoring too much context. I had to count out where he was among WRs because I couldn't get PFR to sort like that so 63rd might be a little off.)

When you put all those numbers together, where does he rank among WRs in the NFL? It's a tough call without looking at where every player ranks in those categories. I think something in the high teens/low 20s is fair, given that he's only top 10 in one category and his rate stats are still solid but well outside top 10 range. So he's what...the 18th best WR this year? 20th? 22nd? I think somewhere in that range is objectively a fair ranking.

Keep in mind, he has the 10th highest average value contract among NFL WRs and is the 7th highest paid this year. If this was a "normal" year for him, he's still probably a little overpaid. But this is a CAREER year for him, and he still isn't quite producing what his contract says he should.

His game against Baltimore was undeniably great and his game against Miami was great. His overall year has been really good. But the "he isn't living up to his contract" argument I think is still very valid when you look at what he's done both this year and over the course of his career. I know it's fun to take a victory lap when he has a great game like he did, but is that because you really objectively think he's that good?

With how contracts inflate year over year, if you are getting production in the ballpark of his salary rank (on a per dollar basis), it's a win IMO. The whole .80 cents on the dollar tends to be the marker for most guys who get large contracts. You pay a premium for the certainty.

To me, Landry is in the conversation for the best WR in the NFL outside of that elite tier. Just in terms of consistency, production, intangibles. Per year dollar figures, with how rookie scale wages work, aren't quite as useful to me......because the emerging guys who make less will eventually get their extension and pass him. I'd certainly rather have him over every other guy who has gotten paid in that same 2-3 year window......i.e. Robinson, Watkins, Williams, Cooks, etc. I think that is honestly a better gauge.....value in relation to similar contracts.

It is a career year but it is also the first offense he's played in with balance and a quality QB. So given his age (26), it is not a leap to expect this to be the norm. He's hitting his prime, playing opposite a great player and being afforded favorable matchups with a QB that can get him the ball......all while having a RB that can keep the defense honest.

I don't even think it is a victory lap, just that he is consistently playing well and a contract that many people criticized doesn't look so bad....especially when considering his remaining prime years are at 3 years, $41 million (13.7 per). Only $9 million in dead cap money over that stretch, $4.5 of that being next year. Would he really not get more than that on the open market? Seems like a situation where a player was rewarded and his play is justifying the teams' investment. Seems like a win all around.

 

[col63onel]

He's hitting his prime

Someone (@Randolphkeys I think) had a chart about when WRs hit their prime and I don't think it's post 26, but I'd have to see the chart.

playing opposite a great player and being afforded favorable matchups with a QB that can get him the ball......all while having a RB that can keep the defense honest.

Problem is our offense has been not good with teams keying on OBJ and letting Landry and Chubb do their thing. I think teams are OK letting Jarvis have his, and while he's been good, the offense as a whole suffers. And if OBJ keeps producing like he is, his contract is awful. If Jarvis can't keep teams from keying on OBJ, I don't know if that's good enough. And maybe that's OBJ's fault, or Baker's or Kitchens, but I don't think this model yields sustainable offense.

I'd certainly rather have him over every other guy who has gotten paid in that same 2-3 year window......i.e. Robinson, Watkins, Williams, Cooks, etc. I think that is honestly a better gauge.....value in relation to similar contracts.

Completely fair, although similar contracts also include Nuke, Mike Evans, Davante Adams, Diggs and Thielen as well. I don't know that those comparisons help Landry. He's certainly a better contract than guys like Allen Robinson,

 

[Arketebel]

Really a missed opportunity. I laid out the argument but got cold feet.

Watching @The Wizard of Moz donate $100 in Landry's name would have been very satisfying.

That would have been 4 x $25 imaginary Amazon gift cards.

 

[I'mWithDan]

Someone (@Randolphkeys I think) had a chart about when WRs hit their prime and I don't think it's post 26, but I'd have to see the chart.

Slot possession guys tend to play forever. Landry is a guy that relies more on quickness, strength and route running, which certainly age better than other profiles. Maybe only 1 year of that remaining money is his prime but if the Browns want to cut him loose, contract structure makes it very easy. They rode out the riskier portion of that deal and got nice production......and he's now on a cap friendly tail end, which is at least a small win.

Problem is our offense has been not good with teams keying on OBJ and letting Landry and Chubb do their thing. I think teams are OK letting Jarvis have his, and while he's been good, the offense as a whole suffers. And if OBJ keeps producing like he is, his contract is awful. If Jarvis can't keep teams from keying on OBJ, I don't know if that's good enough. And maybe that's OBJ's fault, or Baker's or Kitchens, but I don't think this model yields sustainable offense.

I think the last few games were more an indication that it was a lot of shared blame. Baker playing better has probably been the main difference though......because getting in positive game script more often allows us to burn a play going deep, where OBJ excels. We have been behind the chains so much with penalties and poor play calls that we really couldn't afford to throw away plays with the 2-3 deep shots OBJ should get each game. The last few, we've been able to work back in those defense stretching plays a little more, because we haven't been collectively fucking up quite as much.

Completely fair, although similar contracts also include Nuke, Mike Evans, Davante Adams, Diggs and Thielen as well. I don't know that those comparisons help Landry. He's certainly a better contract than guys like Allen Robinson,

Certainly. My caveat was that I think he's in the conversation for best guy below that tier. I don't think anyone has him slotted with the Mike Evans' of the world......but kind of those 1B/2A ish receivers, he's certainly been the best value IMO. And the Browns were a joke at the time of that acquisition, so we paid a bit of the stupid tax on that deal. All in all, I think we've gotten what amounts to market value out of that deal, which kind of seems like a miracle with where the team was at the time and how Landry was viewed across the league (as more of a stat padding, short yardage, volume chain mover).

 

[col63onel]

Slot possession guys tend to play forever. Landry is a guy that relies more on quickness, strength and route running, which certainly age better than other profiles. Maybe only 1 year of that remaining money is his prime but if the Browns want to cut him loose, contract structure makes it very easy. They rode out the riskier portion of that deal and got nice production......and he's now on a cap friendly tail end, which is at least a small win.

. If we cut him after this season I don't know how nice his production was while he was here. He was legit mediocre last year. And his deal is cap friendly in terms of dead money, but still a sizable cap hit. And if we paid him top 10 WR money to cut him in 2/3 years, that's just not a good deal.

And I don't doubt him be rosterable well into his 30s. He may have a longer career length, but I don't know that affects what his peak is.

I think the last few games were more an indication that it probably was a lot of shared blame. Baker playing better has probably been the main difference though......because getting in positive game script more often allows us to burn a play going deep, where OBJ excels. We have been behind the chains so much with penalties and poor play calls that we really couldn't afford to throw away plays with the 2-3 shot OBJ should get each game. The last few, we've been able to work back in those defense stretching plays.

Maybe. There's been so much blame being thrown around I have no idea if we've fixed anything or we just looked good against worse opponents or who's fault it is. I guess we'll see.

Certainly. My caveat was that I think he's in the conversation for best guy below that tier. I don't think anyone has him slotted with the Mike Evans' of the world......but kind of those 1B ish receivers, he's certainly been the best value IMO

Who are the 1B receivers? His contract is just under Hopkins, and bigger than Thielen, Diggs and Adams (in Adam's case, by a decent chunk). I don't think he's a better value than any of them, and along with Watkins and Cooks, those are the most comparable contracts. He's near the middle/bottom of that tier.

 

[Soda]

I'm willing to bet a donation to the site that Jarvis is not cut after the season. IF his contract is terminated, it'll only be done for him to re-sign for another deal.

 

[The Wizard of Moz]

I’ve been extremely critical of Landry, but he’s so vastly outperformed OBJ and OBJ’s thread has constant crickets in it

like if we’ve got a bone to pick with anyone it’s our elite supposed top 3 WR who has been outplayed all year by juice

 

[Urban]

I’ve been extremely critical of Landry, but he’s so vastly outperformed OBJ and OBJ’s thread has constant crickets in it

like if we’ve got a bone to pick with anyone it’s our elite supposed top 3 WR who has been outplayed all year by juice

Baker and Odell need to spend a lot of time together in the offseason, that much is clear.

 

[Huber.]

Baker and Odell need to spend a lot of time together in the offseason, that much is clear.

Best Odell can do is a June Snapchat Story with "dawwwwwgggg chhheeeeccckkkk" in it. #notmandatory

 

[I'mWithDan]

Who are the 1B receivers? His contract is just under Hopkins, and bigger than Thielen, Diggs and Adams (in Adam's case, by a decent chunk). I don't think he's a better value than any of them, and along with Watkins and Cooks, those are the most comparable contracts. He's near the middle/bottom of that tier.

Middle of the Watkins / Cooks tier? Really? Sheesh. You must be pretty low on him if that is your view.

Tyler Boyd got 4 years, $43 million......I just think all these dollar figures are relative. In a world where Tyler Boyd makes 10+ million a year, Landry is worth the 13-14 he's going to get paid.

Now, if we want to have an argument about wether a #2 WR should be paid that amount, relative to the cap, I think that is a different discussion. But seeing what some of these completely mediocre WR's are getting in extension money (Boyd, Williams, Watkins, Shepard, etc.) I don't lose a lot of sleep paying Landry what he is paid.

 

[col63onel]

Middle of the Watkins / Cooks tier? Really? Sheesh. You must be pretty low on him if that is your view.

Tyler Boyd got 4 years, $43 million......I just think all these dollar figures are relative. In a world where Tyler Boyd makes 10+ million a year, Landry is worth the 13-14 he's going to get paid.

Now, if we want to have an argument about wether a #2 WR should be paid that amount, relative to the cap, I think that is a different discussion. But seeing what some of these completely mediocre WR's are getting in extension money (Boyd, Williams, Watkins, Shepard, etc.) I don't lose a lot of sleep paying Landry what he is paid.

I mean, salary wise its the Hopkins, Adams, Thielen, Diggs, Evans tier too, and I think all of them are ahead of Landry. Williams and Boyd are like 5mil less a year in average value. If we go that far below Landry's salary, we have to go that far up, which starts to get into Michael Thomas and Ty Hill.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I mean, salary wise its the Hopkins, Adams, Thielen, Diggs, Evans tier too, and I think all of them are ahead of Landry. Williams and Boyd are like 5mil less a year in average value. If we go that far below Landry's salary, we have to go that far up, which starts to get into Michael Thomas and Ty Hill.

All I'm trying to say here is look at that cut line, in the $14 million range, down to $10 million....the range receivers like Landry seem to be settling in...and look at where every receiver who has experience and an extension under their belt are at. I honestly think 75% of the contracts are easily worse than Landry's.

My argument is that salaries are just relative. Is he overpaid? Sure. Is he one of the better overpaid guys? To me, he is. Would I want to pay him that much now? No. Would i pick him off the FA market at what he has left, both in years and dollars? Absolutely.