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The next month will be critical

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Wham with the Right Hand

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Zack Meisel has a column in The Athletic pointing out that the Indians have a very favorable schedule over the next month which gives them a chance to stay within shouting distance of the A.L. leaders while waiting for Plesac and Reyes to return and trying to find a couple of decent starters. We know this already but Zack does a good job of putting some numbers on it. I pasted some excerpts.

Winnable games

Here’s how this stretch begins:

• Three games against the Mariners, who own MLB’s worst batting average and on-base percentage and the second-worst slugging percentage
• Four games versus the Orioles, who possess baseball’s second-worst ERA and second-highest loss total
(I know what you’re thinking: The Indians are 2-5 against those teams this season. Yeah, it’s quite odd. The Indians are 11-11 against winning teams, the fourth-best mark in the American League, behind Houston, Tampa Bay and Boston.)
• Three games at the Pirates, who have the league’s fifth-worst ERA and third-worst wRC+ (overall run creation)
• Two games at the Cubs and four games at the Twins, who reside in the AL Central basement
• Three games against the Tigers, who are 23-72 against the Indians since 2016....

Anyway, that’s an awfully soft portion of the schedule, though it will require the Indians to play just about every day, which will put pressure on the pitching staff. They’re staring up at the White Sox in the standings, but Chicago lost second baseman Nick Madrigal on Thursday to a hamstring tear....

A barrage of off days has permitted the Indians to navigate the past few weeks with only 40 percent of their starting rotation intact. Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale are averaging 6 2/3 innings per start this season. The sextet of Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, Cal Quantrill, Jean Carlos Mejía, Eli Morgan and Sam Hentges, who have covered the final two — and with Zach Plesac sidelined, the final three — spots in the rotation, has averaged about 3 1/3 innings per start.


Those six pitchers, in their starts, have combined for an 8.35 ERA with a 1.81 WHIP....


The Indians won’t be as free to manipulate how they structure their starting pitching during this stretch. They’ll recall McKenzie, who has impressed his past two outings, to pitch Saturday, in between Civale and Bieber. Mejía and Quantrill could kick off the Baltimore series next week.

There are no more training wheels, though. The Indians need these young hurlers to work deeper into games.

“At some point, you have to start getting some length out of more than two starters,” manager Terry Francona said...

The top half — well, the top five-ninths — of Francona’s lineup has risen to the level of “formidable” in recent weeks. Since the start of May, Cesar Hernandez owns a .794 OPS and Amed Rosario boasts a .301/.352/.451 slash line. That has allowed José Ramírez to actually bat with runners aboard...

Harold Ramirez’s metrics suggest his placement in the middle of the order isn’t as crazy as it might seem for a guy who was claimed off waivers a few months ago. And Eddie Rosario has officially heated up after offering a few of those 70-degree-day-in-early-March-type hints.
That’s not to say this lineup is a well-oiled machine, or even an oiled machine, or even a machine...

The Indians will play 30 games in the next 31 days, though. There will be plenty of opportunities for all. We’re going to learn a lot about this team.


My comment:

The soft part of the schedule is coming at the best possible time with Plesac and Reyes out and the other starters besides Bieber and Civale struggling. The hitters are starting to warm up; we've actually had two 10-run games in the last four. Whether the Indians end up becoming buyers at the deadline will probably be determined by the next 31 days.

McKenzie and Mejia might be the keys to this season with Allen having a dead arm and Hentges showing no evidence he can pitch at this level. This would be a great time for Josie to get hot. Eddie is showing signs of starting to hit with a .333 BA in June, although he's still hitting almost all singles. Anything Bradley could contribute would be a big help. Amed and Harold need to keep hitting - he's at .412/1.156 in June.
 
I don’t agree with him that the stretch is more critical due to the teams they play (when teams play bad teams, writers say it’s critical to take advantage and win the games and then when teams play good teams, the writers say the games are critical to not lose ground in the standings), but I definitely do agree it will be more difficult to handle the pitching because of the lack of off days. The bullpen could definitely run out of gas. I have some hope for McKenzie to give 5 or more innings but no one else (besides Bieber and Civale).

I feel like they need to piggy back / opener with Quantrill, Mejia, and Hentges to have any chance of getting through the other two starts. They also need some
BP guys to step up besides Shaw, Clase, and Karinchak.
 
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Yeah, I don't buy into any one month being more critical than the next. Do they need to play better to have a shot at the postseason? Well.......yes, just like several other teams. What needs to happen is an unbiased, critical self evaluation of what they expect this season. That will determine what they decide to do....or not do.
 
The sextet of Triston McKenzie, Logan Allen, Cal Quantrill, Jean Carlos Mejía, Eli Morgan and Sam Hentges, who have covered the final two — and with Zach Plesac sidelined, the final three — spots in the rotation, has averaged about 3 1/3 innings per start.

Those six pitchers, in their starts, have combined for an 8.35 ERA with a 1.81 WHIP....


Those six pitchers have combined for 23 of Indians' 59 starts. That's 39% of their games in which the starter averaged under 4 innings with an ERA of 8.35. Combined with an offense that is 10th in the A.L. in runs per game and it's amazing the Tribe is five games OVER .500.

But unless the starting pitching improves they won't stay over .500 when the schedule gets tougher and we start playing teams like Boston, Tampa, Houston, and Oakland plus the remaining games against the White Sox, Blue Jays, and Yankees.
 
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I don’t agree with him that the stretch is more critical due to the teams they play (when teams play bad teams, writers say it’s critical to take advantage and win the games and then when teams play good teams, the writers say the games are critical to not lose ground in the standings), but I definitely do agree it will be more difficult to handle the pitching because of the lack of off days. The bullpen could definitely run out of gas. I have some hope for McKenzie to give 5 or more innings but no one else (besides Bieber and Civale).

I feel like they need to piggy back / opener with Quantrill, Mejia, and Hentges to have any chance of getting through the other two starts. They also need some
BP guys to step up besides Shaw, Clase, and Karinchak.

Actually this stretch may be the most important stretch of the season... We are facing on paper a stretch that we definitely need to be at least 5-10 games over .500 for the month... if we aren't then we are definitely in big trouble...If we have a bad month, then we are likely out of the running on paper...
 
fwiw - our next off day(s) are june 23 and then the all -star break july 12-15
 
One thing that Zach has pointed out in the last week or so is that the Indians are actually playing better against competent teams(over .500) than the dredges(<.500) teams. Given that the rest of the month is essentially the latter, we need to turn that stat around and win at a higher clip.
 
IMO this stretch really is critical for a couple reasons.

First, the results of this stretch will determine whether the Tribe is a legit contender, and therefore gives the FO a reason to explore an addition to the team...or whether we revert to simply preparing for 2022. Whether we are buyers or sellers.

Secondly, for the young starters and some young bats, it is a kind of Spring Training, part two. In ST a kid gets to play regularly against non MLB talent. While we will be playing MLB teams, we will be facing a lot of non MLB level players, both pitching and batting.

Against them, a kid can make a mistake and still not get hammered...a learning experience without the immediate pain.

Something wrong you might do against Boston or Houston gets you knocked out of the game. But do it against Baltimore or Pittsburgh, you live to pitch another inning, which might become three.

If in any endeavor you have to have on the job training, its best to do it thru easier tasks...until you get the hang of it.

30 games mean around six starts for the kids to get their bearings and build their pitch counts, while still giving the team a chance to win.

One other thing...

We are gonna face some pitchers who aren't any better than our kids, and sometimes a lot worse.
 
Something wrong you might do against Boston or Houston gets you knocked out of the game. But do it against Baltimore or Pittsburgh, you live to pitch another inning, which might become three.

If in any endeavor you have to have on the job training, its best to do it thru easier tasks...until you get the hang of it.

30 games mean around six starts for the kids to get their bearings and build their pitch counts, while still giving the team a chance to win.
I'm hoping Mejia and McKenzie can use these starts against weaker hitting teams like Seattle, Baltimore, Detroit, and Pittsburgh (all ranked between 21-30 in runs per game) to make some strides and build their confidence before the tough sledding starts. I assume the rotation will be Bieber, Civale, McKenzie, Mejia, and Quantrill until Plesac is ready. Hentges is the other possibility but it seems to me he isn't close. As a starter batters are hitting .321/.925 against him with an OBP of .443.
 
I'm hoping Mejia and McKenzie can use these starts against weaker hitting teams like Seattle, Baltimore, Detroit, and Pittsburgh (all ranked between 21-30 in runs per game) to make some strides and build their confidence before the tough sledding starts. I assume the rotation will be Bieber, Civale, McKenzie, Mejia, and Quantrill until Plesac is ready. Hentges is the other possibility but it seems to me he isn't close. As a starter batters are hitting .321/.925 against him with an OBP of .443.
Quantrill, too.

Another problem these kids have...and its not abnormal at all...is that they haven't reacted well to adversity. They seem to crumble quickly.

Cases in point...

Quantrill spikes a throw to the plate after a bloop single that should have been caught.

Mejia walks a batter after a cue ball single.

Again, this is not abnormal for a young pitcher being thrust into a high pressure situation in which their immediate success is mandated if their team is to remain in contention.

Like a closer, these kids are unfortunately the last line of defense for a team trying to win a division. Contending this year falls squarely on their shoulders, and the next stretch of games will decide the direction of this team. They have the talent, but they need the experience the rest of the first half will provide.
 
I don’t agree with him that the stretch is more critical due to the teams they play (when teams play bad teams, writers say it’s critical to take advantage and win the games and then when teams play good teams, the writers say the games are critical to not lose ground in the standings), but I definitely do agree it will be more difficult to handle the pitching because of the lack of off days. The bullpen could definitely run out of gas. I have some hope for McKenzie to give 5 or more innings but no one else (besides Bieber and Civale).

I feel like they need to piggy back / opener with Quantrill, Mejia, and Hentges to have any chance of getting through the other two starts. They also need some
BP guys to step up besides Shaw, Clase, and Karinchak.
I don’t agree with him that the stretch is more critical due to the teams they play (when teams play bad teams, writers say it’s critical to take advantage and win the games and then when teams play good teams, the writers say the games are critical to not lose ground in the standings), but I definitely do agree it will be more difficult to handle the pitching because of the lack of off days. The bullpen could definitely run out of gas. I have some hope for McKenzie to give 5 or more innings but no one else (besides Bieber and Civale).

I feel like they need to piggy back / opener with Quantrill, Mejia, and Hentges to have any chance of getting through the other two starts. They also need some
BP guys to step up besides Shaw, Clase, and Karinchak.
Well looks like I was wrong about McKenzie….
 

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