The Rubio effect

[Wham with the Right Hand]

I was looking at lineups that featured both Garland and Rubio on the floor together. That combination did incredibly well almost regardless of who the other three players were. Here are some numbers from cleaningtheglass.com. They show the +/- for each five-man unit per 100 possessions and then the number of possessions that unit was on the floor in parenthesis.

DG, Rubio, Markkanen, Mobley, Allen +52.4 (78 possessions)

DG, Rubio, Osman, Mobley, Allen +49.8 (52)

Subbing Osman for Marky didn't make any difference; both lineups dominated. Putting Garland, Rubio, Mobley, and Allen on the floor together was kryptonite for opponents.

DG, Rubio, Okoro, Wade, Davis 0.0 (72)

Even putting three non-shooters like Okoro, Wade and Davis out there didn't put the Garland/Rubio backcourt into negative territory.

DG, Rubio, Windler, Osman, Mobley +25.3 (47)
DG, Rubio, Stevens, Mobley, Love -19.5 (43)

I'm not sure why that last unit didn't work. Here are some strong units that included Love.

DG, Rubio, Wade, Markkanen, Love +39.4 (42)
DG, Rubio, Osman, Markkanen, Love +74.6 (29)
DG, Rubio, Okoro, Love, Allen +79.3 (29)
DG, Rubio, Osman, Love, Allen +31.0 (41)
DG, Rubio, Wade, Markkanen, Allen +43.6 (24)
DG, Rubio, Osman, Mobley, Love +13.6 (72)

Here are the other two negative units:

DG, Rubio, Okoro, Wade, Love -12.1 (31)
DG, Rubio, Okoro, Wade, Mobley -14.3 (28)

Putting both Okoro and Wade out there with DG and Rubio didn't work.

In summary, there were 14 five-man units that included BOTH Garland and Rubio and had at least 24 possessions. Three were in the negative, two were neutral, one was mildly positive (+13.6), and eight were hugely positive (+25 and above).

The three negative units all included either Wade or Stevens, who normally aren't in the rotation when everyone is available. One of the neutral units (0.0) included Wade and Davis.

So for the most part the Cavs were extremely successful when Garland and Rubio were on the floor together. Totalling it up, the Cavs were +16.2 when Garland and Rubio were on the floor, which was in the top 1% in the league. The Cavs averaged 116.4 points per 100 possessions and allowed 100.2. Offensively that puts them in the 81st percentile and defensively the 99th. What surprised me was how great the Cavs were defensively - in the top 1%.

That +16.2 number is for 1,027 possessions, or about 10 full games.

The Cavs either need to sign Rubio (if they are confident he will make a full recovery by the end of December) or find somebody like him because it's clear that putting another playmaker on the floor with Darius is extremely effective.

By the way, the Garland/LeVert combination was a +7.0 in 568 possessions. The Garland/Sexton backcourt was a -1.9 in 309 possessions.

Comparing the effects of Rubio and Sexton with four starters on the floor, we have these lineups:

DG, Rubio, Markkanen, Mobley, Allen +52.4 (78 possessions)
DG, Sexton, Markkanen, Mobley, Allen +2.1 (140 possessions)

Sexton and Rubio together was a -0.4 in 243 possessions. I can see why Cavs management is wondering whether the things Sexton does result in winning basketball.

The Garland/Okoro backcourt was a +9.0 in about 1,700 possessions. So Garland did well paired with either LeVert (+7.0) or Okoro (+9.0) but even better with Rubio (+16.2).

For all the talk of needing a 6'8" wing that can hit 3's and also score inside and play D (maybe one will fall out of a tree) the fact is the Cavs were killing it with DG and Rubio on the floor together with almost any combination of the guys we have now.

 

[Cavatt]

Losing Rubio was such a gut punch. Low point of the season including the collapse at the end.

 

[Randolphkeys]

Rubio had his games where the shot wasn't falling, but he just made everyone better on and off the court. He's a rich-man's Dellavedova, so it surprises nobody that he fit like a glove with the roster and with the franchise. Hope he's back.

 

[PIP]

I know the games are different. But the veteran presence and ability to score is big— does anyone believe someone like Dragic (who looked solid in the short playoff sample size) would be an ideal backup PG for this young team from that veteran perspective ?

 

[Cavatt]

I know the games are different. But the veteran presence and ability to score is big— does anyone believe someone like Dragic (who looked solid in the short playoff sample size) would be an ideal backup PG for this young team from that veteran perspective ?

I would love to have him, but does he even want to play on a team like this? He left a superior Raptors team for a flawed Nets roster. Would not play with the Raps even when they started winning. I find it hard to believe he would be bought in like Rubio.

 

[Heat Check]

I've always been a Ricky fan. However, while I appreciate the work that goes into these deep dives, I'm just not crazy about making far-reaching conclusions on the basis of Oct-Nov-Dec stats. The fact is that Rubio played just 34 games.

It's clear that Ricky usually improves the performance of the lineups he's in. He's always had that effect. But if we're thinking about possibly resigning him, that's not quite enough anymore for a guy on the wrong side of 30, coming off his second major knee surgery.

Rubio got hurt when his "honeymoon" period was still in full swing, but I'd argue that he still didn't have an especially good season individually. His PER was the 2nd worst of his career and he had a pretty terrible shooting season while putting up – incredibly – career high FGA's.

 

[Randolphkeys]

I've always been a Ricky fan. However, while I appreciate the work that goes into these deep dives, I'm just not crazy about making far-reaching conclusions on the basis of Oct-Nov-Dec stats. The fact is that Rubio played just 34 games.

It's clear that Ricky usually improves the performance of the lineups he's in. He's always had that effect. But if we're thinking about possibly resigning him, that's not quite enough anymore for a guy on the wrong side of 30, coming off his second major knee surgery.

Rubio got hurt when his "honeymoon" period was still in full swing, but I'd argue that he still didn't have an especially good season individually. His PER was the 2nd worst of his career and he had a pretty terrible shooting season while putting up – incredibly – career high FGA's.

If you are keeping score, In this post I counted seven caveats in order to make a point against Ricky's potential rejoining the team... arguably eight.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Only twelve 2-man combinations in the entire league had a better point differential than Garland and Rubio's +16.2.

I don't think it's as much about Rubio's individual stats but more about having a second ball handler and experienced passer on the floor so when the defense shifted to Garland we had a guy who knew how to burn them.

 

[2 For The Brew]

I've always been a Ricky fan. However, while I appreciate the work that goes into these deep dives, I'm just not crazy about making far-reaching conclusions on the basis of Oct-Nov-Dec stats. The fact is that Rubio played just 34 games.

It's clear that Ricky usually improves the performance of the lineups he's in. He's always had that effect. But if we're thinking about possibly resigning him, that's not quite enough anymore for a guy on the wrong side of 30, coming off his second major knee surgery.

Rubio got hurt when his "honeymoon" period was still in full swing, but I'd argue that he still didn't have an especially good season individually. His PER was the 2nd worst of his career and he had a pretty terrible shooting season while putting up – incredibly – career high FGA's.

IDGAF if he didn’t have a good season “individually.” Our team was clearly better when he was on the floor. If he wants to come back at a reasonable price then I want him back.

 

[Douglar]

If you are keeping score, In this post I counted seven caveats in order to make a point against Ricky's potential rejoining the team... arguably eight.

Well, to be fair, there are a lot of reasons why Ricky might not be back.

I'd love to have him back and ignite the magic again.

But the "whole wheat" side of me is kind of glum about the possibilities.

Altman needs to work on a Plan A, and Ricky can still be Plan B

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Rubio ranked 2nd on the Cavs individually in on/off differential. The Cavs were +5.4 points better when he was on the floor than when he was off. But when he was on the floor with Garland the Cavs were 16.2 points better, which means when he was on the floor without Garland he was in the negative.

That makes me wonder whether Rubio was really that good or whether he just played off Garland really well.

Garland led the team by a mile at +13.9. All the Cavs need to do is find a backup point guard that can keep the Cavs even with the opponent in the 14 minutes or so that Garland is on the bench and this team will win a lot of games.

It's amazing how much better the Cavs were with Darius on the floor. LeVert, for example, was a -2.5 individually, but when paired with Garland he was a +7.0. Okoro was a +1.9 overall and a +9.0 when he played with Garland.

 

[Douglar]

Rubio ranked 2nd on the Cavs individually in on/off differential. The Cavs were +5.4 points better when he was on the floor than when he was off. But when he was on the floor with Garland the Cavs were 16.2 points better, which means when he was on the floor without Garland he was in the negative.

That doesn't follow. Bad math!!

 

[Randolphkeys]

That doesn't follow. Bad math!!

Analytics in sports are a starting point to finding answers, not an end point.

 

[KardiacKat23]

So I looked it up and according to Spotrac this guy is a FA, Tyus Jones would be someone I’d like to kick the tires on. He may ask for a decent amount of money, but he’s young at 26 and Memphis played really good basketball with him at PG with Ja Morant being out.

Ricky is a fun player to watch but with 2 knee injuries, I worry about his effectiveness. Or we could go the draft route but not super keen on Ty Ty.

 

[gaitano]

Rubio ranked 2nd on the Cavs individually in on/off differential. The Cavs were +5.4 points better when he was on the floor than when he was off. But when he was on the floor with Garland the Cavs were 16.2 points better, which means when he was on the floor without Garland he was in the negative.
...

The quote above is based on dubious reasoning. From the above quoted numbers we can infer that Rubio's on/off differential on the floor without Garland was less than +5.4, but it does not necessarily imply that it was negative. We need more information to make that inference.
Edit: I see as Douglar already said below your post.