Thoughts on trading Jose Ramirez

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CDAV45

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Read a couple of articles about the Dodgers and the Braves having(or should have) interest in JRam. They seem to think that because Lindor and Carrasco were given away for peanuts that Ramirez can be had on the cheap. Frustrating to read, but I can understand why they would think that. I'm confident that CA has the payroll in a comfortable spot so giving away Ramirez won't happen.
 

NorthCoastBias

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N7RobBob

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If you can't afford a payroll under 40$ (~25 million ish) then get the fuck out of owning a professional sports teams. I know that is the trend, but even with a team like Atlanta who played the young guys it is nice to have a cheaper veteran presence. Let alone a cheap MVP caliber player. Fans would really just give up on the team if this happened this offseason.
 

Gson

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If you can't afford a payroll under 40$ (~25 million ish) then get the fuck out of owning a professional sports teams. I know that is the trend, but even with a team like Atlanta who played the young guys it is nice to have a cheaper veteran presence. Let alone a cheap MVP caliber player. Fans would really just give up on the team if this happened this offseason.
@ 1.6 - 2.0 MM fans in the stands during a good year.. it could be argued that the fans have already given up.. Then again.. when the playoffs start, you can't buy a ticket.. So, it's, at best, a mixed result..
 

Derek

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Ramirez is on an affordable contract for the next 3 years during which he'll be 28-29-30. No way I trade him.

I still anticipate this team winning more games than it loses over that span.
 

petes999

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In my mind, we lost 5-9 wins with this Lindor trade (per fangraph WAR differences). We went from being competitive with Minn and Sox to being middle of the road (more wins than losses). And, the Sox are improving. Even if they sign an OF or 2nd (like Caesar) with this great financial savings, it is just treading water in replacing Caesar's value from last year (let alone Santana's value of drawing walks and 1/2 season of Clevinger).

You can say that Quant is going to take a huge leap forward but we are also one injury away (such as Bieber) from being a bottom feeder. And, with a line-up card of Gimenez, Cesar/Rosario, Jose, Reyes, Naylor ... you are not going to give Jose a whole lot of pitches to look at - and do we believe he wants to take walks like Santana?

Plus, if we are going to follow this Tampa/Clev model, will Jose be traded after this year anyway to maximize his value (with 2 years left)? Even if they hold him to trade deadline 2022, I would pull the damn band-aid off now (or by July - to see if lightening strikes with our young kids first in being a playoff contender - doubtful), to really maximize his trade value (that is if we get a haul of prospects). Yet, with 3 years of playoffs, we better get elite prospects and not these ... we hope they can become Buehler prospects or they used to be top 100 prospects that are not living up to their potential after 2 years.

I would do Jose to Dodgers for Ruiz, Gray, Hoese and Rodriquez or the Braves for Mueller, Waters, Langeliers and Shuster (may have to throwing in Whitgren here for values to work). Both have near ready prospects to fill holes and pitching. You may say that's too much for them to swallow giving up. Yet, for 3-years of Jose, you have infinitely more leverage than 1-year of Lindor, as $12 million for a solid 3-hole hitter is going to save financial strain and luxury tax than trying to sign a Springer or other at $20 million plus.

Now it's not about saving money rather using our chips when we can actually win (late 2022-22024 before Bieber goes). If you save $20 million this year, then spend $40 million next year on a quality OF & 1B that can actually fill out middle of the line-up. Otherwise, Ramirez is wasted for next year or two as we wait on Jones, Freeman, Valera and others as as any pitcher would rather face Reyes.
 
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avs2000

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In my mind, we lost 5-9 wins with this Lindor trade (per fangraph WAR differences). We went from being competitive with Minn and Sox to being middle of the road (more wins than losses). And, the Sox are improving. Even if they sign an OF or 2nd (like Caesar) with this great financial savings, it is just treading water in replacing Caesar's value from last year (let alone Santana's value of drawing walks and 1/2 season of Clevinger).

You can say that Quant is going to take a huge leap forward but we are also one injury away (such as Bieber) from being a bottom feeder. And, with a line-up card of Gimenez, Cesar/Rosario, Jose, Reyes, Naylor ... you are not going to give Jose a whole lot of pitches to look at - and do we believe he wants to take walks like Santana?

Plus, if we are going to follow this Tampa/Clev model, will Jose be traded after this year anyway to maximize his value (with 2 years left)? Even if they hold him to trade deadline 2022, I would pull the damn band-aid off now (or by July - see if lightening strikes with our young kids), to really maximize his trade value (that is if we get a haul of prospects). Yet, with 3 years of playoffs, we better get elite prospects and not these ... we hope they can become Buehler prospects or they use to be top 100 prospects that are not living up to their potential after 2 years.

I would do Jose to Dodgers for Ruiz, Gray, Hoese and Rodriquez or the Braves for Mueller, Waters, Langeliers and Shuster (may have to throwing in Whitgren here for values to work). Both have near ready prospects to fill holes and pitching. You may say that's too much for them to swallow giving up. Yet, for 3-years of Jose, you have infinitely more leverage than 1-year of Lindor, as $12 million for a solid 3-hole hitter is going to save financial strain and luxury tax than trying to sign a Springer or other at $20 million plus.

Now it's not about saving money rather using our chips when we can actually win (late 2022-22024 before Bieber goes). If you save $20 million this year, then spend $40 million next year on a quality OF & 1B that can actually fill out middle of the line-up. Otherwise, Ramirez is wasted for next year or two as we wait on Jones, Freeman, Valera and others as as any pitcher would rather face Reyes.
I am not against it, but as you say we need to get back a boatload of talent.
 

Gson

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In my mind, we lost 5-9 wins with this Lindor trade (per fangraph WAR differences). We went from being competitive with Minn and Sox to being middle of the road (more wins than losses). And, the Sox are improving. Even if they sign an OF or 2nd (like Caesar) with this great financial savings, it is just treading water in replacing Caesar's value from last year (let alone Santana's value of drawing walks and 1/2 season of Clevinger).

You can say that Quant is going to take a huge leap forward but we are also one injury away (such as Bieber) from being a bottom feeder. And, with a line-up card of Gimenez, Cesar/Rosario, Jose, Reyes, Naylor ... you are not going to give Jose a whole lot of pitches to look at - and do we believe he wants to take walks like Santana?

Plus, if we are going to follow this Tampa/Clev model, will Jose be traded after this year anyway to maximize his value (with 2 years left)? Even if they hold him to trade deadline 2022, I would pull the damn band-aid off now (or by July - see if lightening strikes with our young kids), to really maximize his trade value (that is if we get a haul of prospects). Yet, with 3 years of playoffs, we better get elite prospects and not these ... we hope they can become Buehler prospects or they use to be top 100 prospects that are not living up to their potential after 2 years.

I would do Jose to Dodgers for Ruiz, Gray, Hoese and Rodriquez or the Braves for Mueller, Waters, Langeliers and Shuster (may have to throwing in Whitgren here for values to work). Both have near ready prospects to fill holes and pitching. You may say that's too much for them to swallow giving up. Yet, for 3-years of Jose, you have infinitely more leverage than 1-year of Lindor, as $12 million for a solid 3-hole hitter is going to save financial strain and luxury tax than trying to sign a Springer or other at $20 million plus.

Now it's not about saving money rather using our chips when we can actually win (late 2022-22024 before Bieber goes). If you save $20 million this year, then spend $40 million next year on a quality OF & 1B that can actually fill out middle of the line-up. Otherwise, Ramirez is wasted for next year or two as we wait on Jones, Freeman, Valera and others as as any pitcher would rather face Reyes.
Add Toronto and at least one more team into the mix of teams looking to add a 3B/League MVP to their lineup.. let the auction begin at 2 blue chippers, one being an OF'er..
 

Gson

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I am not against it, but as you say we need to get back a boatload of talent.
Ruiz, Gray, Hoese and Rodriquez...

or

Mueller, Waters, Langeliers and Shuster...

are a "boat load of talent"...
 
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In my mind, we lost 5-9 wins with this Lindor trade (per fangraph WAR differences).
Well, last year Lindor's WAR was 1.8 which projects to 4.9 over a full season. Using that number for 2020 his WAR values over the last five years are 4.9, 4.5, 7.7, 5.5, and 5.7. Obviously the 7.7 is the outlier and the other four years are between 4.5 and 5.7. Let's call Lindor a 5 WAR player in a typical season.

If we assume Rosario replaces him at short, he had a 2.7 WAR for the Mets in 2019, so we lose about 2.5 WAR at shortstop if he repeats his 2019 season next year.

At second base the Lindor trade freed up the money to sign Cesar Hernandez, who had a slightly higher WAR than Lindor last year, although that appears to be an outlier. Projected to 162 games his WAR would have been 5.1, but the last two years he was at 1.8 and 2.2, so I'm considering him a 2 WAR player. If not for the Lindor trade we're probably putting Gimenez or Chang at second, which is about 1.0, so we gain 1 WAR by signing Hernandez.

So the total loss from the Lindor trade is more like 1.5 WAR and it could be less if Hernandez has another season similar to last year. However, it's dangerous to project 60 game totals to 162 because guys who play every day get fatigued over a long season.

You can work with the numbers but I just think losing 5-9 wins is high. But a lot depends on how well Rosario and Hernandez play this year.

If Lindor retired and we didn't get Rosario and Gimenez but signed Hernandez then I woud agree we lost about 5 WAR.
 
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CDAV45

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To expect Hernandez to perform at the level he did last season over the course of a full season is a bit much IMO. Also, the difference between Lindor and anyone they play at SS this season will be significant. This idea that somehow the best SS in the game that will give you GG defense, 30 HR, and 20 SB is only a slight drop off to Rosario or Gimenez is insane. WAR is an interesting, useful tool, but it is severely flawed in predicting.
 
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There are good reasons for trading Ramirez.

1. You maximize the return, in fact, you crush it by trading him at the peak of his career with several years remaining before his production is likely to start declining. The dude is one of the top ten players in the game, he's never injured, and he's grossly underpaid. This is probably one of the most valuable contracts in many years.

2. The Indians aren't going to the World Series this year and probably won't win the division. It's questionable whether they make the playoffs even with Hosey.

3. The fans aren't coming whether he's here or not. Attendence is near the bottom of the league even when the team wins the division and this year we also have the pandemic which will likely impact attendance at least for the first half. Ticket sales would not be signficantly impacted. Besides, my belief is most fans buy tickets because they want to have a nice day or evening at the ballpark, not to see one individual player. It's the whole experience they're buying.

4. The Indians need an influx of young talent in the outfield and at first base and catcher (unless you want to put all your eggs in the Bobby Bradley and Bo Naylor basket). We really don't know what we have in Mercado, Josh Naylor, and Luplow. And you can never have enough pitching. Is Civale another Josh Tomlin or can he be something more? Can McKenzie stay healthy? What about Quantrill? We have a lot of question marks in the rotation.

5. The Indians have managed to put a competitive team on the field forever by making deals like this; Joe Carter for Alomar and Baerga, Bartolo Colon for Sizemore, Phillips, and Lee, etc. It's the only way a small market team can compete. This trade would take it to an extreme, however, with three years left, but this would be the year to do it.

6. Our top prospect is a third baseman who is getting close to being major league ready.

The argument against is simply that you're trading a known quantity for a handful of unknowns. Some of us were gnashing our teeth when Max Ramirez, who was considered possibly our top prospect, was traded for a Kenny Lofton rental in 2007. Ramirez never had a career to speak of.

My feeling is if you can get a pitcher, a catcher, and an outfielder or first baseman that you're excited about then go for it. Create a wave of talent hitting the majors in 2022-24 that is affordable and controllable for several years to add to what we have. Take a step back now in order to take three steps forward.
 

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