Thoughts on trading Jose Ramirez

[Wham with the Right Hand]

To expect Hernandez to perform at the level he did last season over the course of a full season is a bit much IMO. Also, the difference between Lindor and anyone they play at SS this season will be significant. This idea that somehow the best SS in the game that will give you GG defense, 30 HR, and 20 SB is only a slight drop off to Rosario or Gimenez is insane. WAR is an interesting, useful tool, but it is severely flawed in predicting.

I'm not as high on Lindor as most. The last two years he's been a horrible hitter with runners in scoring position. He's at his worst when runs are there to be had.

In 2020 he hit .167 with RISP. In 2019 it was .202. In 2018 he was better at .281 but with RISP and two out he hit .230, 55 points lower than he hit with nobody on. He's killed a lot of rallies over the last three seasons.

In 2019, for example, he hit 32 home runs with 74 RBI's. I think about 25 of those home runs came with the bases empty. In addition to the 32 home runs he hit 40 doubles, and two triples for a total of 74 extra base hits. He also hit 96 singles. I get that he was hitting leadoff, but 74 RBI's on 74 extra base hits and 96 singles? That's what happens when you hit .167 and .202 with runners on. I'm so sick of seeing him strike out chasing a breaking ball in the dirt with RISP.

It got to the point last year where he'd have two strikes on him with RISP and I'd be screaming at the TV, "Here it comes, Frankie, breaking ball in the dirt, don't chase dammit!". But he almost always did and the pitchers knew it.

We don't know who will play short this year or how he/they will perform compared to Lindor. But as poorly as Lindor has hit the last 1.4 seasons with RISP I don't think his loss will cost as many wins as many expect.

 

[petes999]

You can work with the numbers but I just think losing 5-9 wins is high. But a lot depends on how well Rosario and Hernandez play this year.

Love how you work the numbers ... assume that Lindor will be below average like last year (but you did justify it with other previous year's WARs which is good) but then assume Cesar has a great year again. Also, I said Lindor Trade ... that includes Cookie. Plus, I was trying to show the decline in WAR to justify that we won't compete. You put Cesar back in but didn't account that he was in our WAR to be competitive last year. You shouldn't double count.

Looking at FanGraph ... the decrease in WAR due to Lindor and Cookie ... is est for 2021 to be 4.8 for Lindor and 3.3 for Cookie. Their WAR for Ros/Gim is 2.4 (at all positions -- I think I used Rosario's 0 War last year for my higher range ... like you used his highest WAR in 2019 to go below 5). Then you can also deduct 1 WAR for replacement pitchers (Allen Quant) for added innings. So that is about the 5 WAR (actually 4.5). Unfortunately, we should also factors in the losses of Santana, Hand, and others (which is why I went high) and additions to Sox. FanGraph shows us as 7.4 WAR below Sox and 8.3 below the Twins (even without Cruz resigning). A lot of ground to make up (we need to perform extra odinary to have a chance in this division. And, as I said elsewhere this is 15th in the league (we are 10.8 WAR behind Blue Jays who are supposedly first WC behind Yankees in their division).

 

[Obscured By Clouds]

There are good reasons for trading Ramirez.

1. You maximize the return, in fact, you crush it by trading him at the peak of his career with several years remaining before his production is likely to start declining. The dude is one of the top ten players in the game, he's never injured, and he's grossly underpaid. This is probably one of the most valuable contracts in many years.

2. The Indians aren't going to the World Series this year and probably won't win the division. It's questionable whether they make the playoffs even with Hosey.

3. The fans aren't coming whether he's here or not. Attendence is near the bottom of the league even when the team wins the division and this year we also have the pandemic which will likely impact attendance at least for the first half. Ticket sales would not be signficantly impacted. Besides, my belief is most fans buy tickets because they want to have a nice day or evening at the ballpark, not to see one individual player. It's the whole experience they're buying.

4. The Indians need an influx of young talent in the outfield and at first base and catcher (unless you want to put all your eggs in the Bobby Bradley and Bo Naylor basket). We really don't know what we have in Mercado, Josh Naylor, and Luplow. And you can never have enough pitching. Is Civale another Josh Tomlin or can he be something more? Can McKenzie stay healthy? What about Quantrill? We have a lot of question marks in the rotation.

5. The Indians have managed to put a competitive team on the field forever by making deals like this; Joe Carter for Alomar and Baerga, Bartolo Colon for Sizemore, Phillips, and Lee, etc. It's the only way a small market team can compete. This trade would take it to an extreme, however, with three years left, but this would be the year to do it.

6. Our top prospect is a third baseman who is getting close to being major league ready.

The argument against is simply that you're trading a known quantity for a handful of unknowns. Some of us were gnashing our teeth when Max Ramirez, who was considered possibly our top prospect, was traded for a Kenny Lofton rental in 2007. Ramirez never had a career to speak of.

My feeling is if you can get a pitcher, a catcher, and an outfielder or first baseman that you're excited about then go for it. Create a wave of talent hitting the majors in 2022-24 that is affordable and controllable for several years to add to what we have. Take a step back now in order to take three steps forward.

Covid. Forgot covid. Trade values are down right now.

 

[CDAV45]

I'm not as high on Lindor as most. The last two years he's been a horrible hitter with runners in scoring position. He's at his worst when runs are there to be had.

In 2020 he hit .167 with RISP. In 2019 it was .202. In 2018 he was better at .281 but with RISP and two out he hit .230, 55 points lower than he hit with nobody on. He's killed a lot of rallies over the last three seasons.

In 2019, for example, he hit 32 home runs with 74 RBI's. I think about 25 of those home runs came with the bases empty. In addition to the 32 home runs he hit 40 doubles, and two triples for a total of 74 extra base hits. He also hit 96 singles. I get that he was hitting leadoff, but 74 RBI's on 74 extra base hits and 96 singles? That's what happens when you hit .167 and .202 with runners on. I'm so sick of seeing him strike out chasing a breaking ball in the dirt with RISP.

It got to the point last year where he'd have two strikes on him with RISP and I'd be screaming at the TV, "Here it comes, Frankie, breaking ball in the dirt, don't chase dammit!". But he almost always did and the pitchers knew it.

We don't know who will play short this year or how he/they will perform compared to Lindor. But as poorly as Lindor has hit the last 1.4 seasons with RISP I don't think his loss will cost as many wins as many expect.

Wham I understand you sentiment, but there is no arguing what he provided this team. There are questions as to why his numbers with RISP dropped off and one of those reasons may very well be that he was terrible in the clutch. I know that pitchers were throwing him breaking balls down and in. Having said that, I haven't delved into the numbers. 74 RBI's could be part of it to whatever degree.

You're sick of him "chasing breaking balls in the dirt with RISP"? I wonder how you're going to feel when watching these slap hitting options. Lindor's production will not be replaced because it can't be with any of the MIFers on the roster and there are not FA close to capable. Lindor is simply a dynamic player that is the best all around player at his position.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Love how you work the numbers ... assume that Lindor will be below average like last year (but you did justify it with other previous year's WARs which is good) but then assume Cesar has a great year again. Also, I said Lindor Trade ... that includes Cookie. Plus, I was trying to show the decline in WAR to justify that we won't compete. You put Cesar back in but didn't account that he was in our WAR to be competitive last year. You shouldn't double count.

Looking at FanGraph ... the decrease in WAR due to Lindor and Cookie ... is est for 2021 to be 4.8 for Lindor and 3.3 for Cookie. Their WAR for Ros/Gim is 2.4 (at all positions -- I think I used Rosario's 0 War last year for my higher range ... like you used his highest WAR in 2019 to go below 5). Then you can also deduct 1 WAR for replacement pitchers (Allen Quant) for added innings. So that is about the 5 WAR (actually 4.5). Unfortunately, we should also factors in the losses of Santana, Hand, and others (which is why I went high) and additions to Sox. FanGraph shows us as 7.4 WAR below Sox and 8.3 below the Twins (even without Cruz resigning). A lot of ground to make up (we need to perform extra odinary to have a chance in this division. And, as I said elsewhere this is 15th in the league (we are 10.8 WAR behind Blue Jays who are supposedly first WC behind Yankees in their division).

Yes, when you add in the losses of Cookie, Hand, and Santana (I'm not concerned about losing Naquin, DeShields, or Cimber) then on paper we are definitely not as strong as last year.

However, Santana hit .199. His WAR projected to 162 games would be 1.6. I have to think whoever plays first (Naylor?) they will be able to match Santana's production.

The outfield numbers were atrocious.

The Cleveland outfield’s ranks among the league’s 30 teams:

Batting average: 29th (.182, just ahead of Pittsburgh’s .180)
On-base percentage: 28th (.283)
Slugging percentage: 30th (.270, a bit behind Pittsburgh’s .294)
wRC+: 29th (52, or 48 percent worse than the league average) - Zack Meisel

Our outfield as a whole hit .182!!! How is that even possible!!! That's what you would expect a National League pitching staff to hit. Their wRC+ was 48% worse than league average!!!

I don't know who is going to be playing first base or the three outfield positions this year (except Naylor should get one of those spots) but how could the offensive production possibly be worse? We're talking about four of the nine spots in the batting order.

I don't know who will be playing shortstop but if they can hit .258/.750 they'll match Lindor's production at the plate last year. Gimenez hit .263/.732. The defense will be tough to match.

At catcher Roberto Perez hit .165 with 5 RBI's in 32 games. He was our best hitting catcher, beating out Leon (.132) and Hedges (1-for-12). How could it not be better next year?

Franmil hit a respectable .275/.795, but his power was well below expected with only 9 HR's in 211 AB's.

When you come right down to it second base and third base were the only positions where the Indians were above the norm. Maybe shortstop, but marginally. I have to believe it's not really this bad.

As for the pitching, the big losses were Carrasco and Hand. In Carrasco's 12 regular season starts the Indians were 6-6 and we lost his post-season start. He will be missed, but maybe not as much as people think.

Hand was awesome with two wins and 16 saves and a .169 BAA. The question is whether Clase and Karinchak can step in and pick up the slack.

I don't know if the Indians will be 10 wins worse this year. They got almost nothing offensively from the entire outfield, catcher, and first base last year. Lindor had the worst offensive year of his career. It all depends on whether guys like Mercado (.128!), Perez, Reyes, and Luplow (.192) can bounce back while new players (Rosario, Daniel Johnson) can step up.

It looks like Quantrill replaces Carrasco in the rotation and Clase replaces Hand in the bullpen. More question marks.

 

[Benway]

Players similar to Ramirez are found in the post-season with regularity. There may be a connection here.

 

[sportscoach]

Yes, when you add in the losses of Cookie, Hand, and Santana (I'm not concerned about losing Naquin, DeShields, or Cimber) then on paper we are definitely not as strong as last year.

However, Santana hit .199. His WAR projected to 162 games would be 1.6. I have to think whoever plays first (Naylor?) they will be able to match Santana's production.

The outfield numbers were atrocious.

The Cleveland outfield’s ranks among the league’s 30 teams:

Batting average: 29th (.182, just ahead of Pittsburgh’s .180)
On-base percentage: 28th (.283)
Slugging percentage: 30th (.270, a bit behind Pittsburgh’s .294)
wRC+: 29th (52, or 48 percent worse than the league average) - Zack Meisel

Our outfield as a whole hit .182!!! How is that even possible!!! That's what you would expect a National League pitching staff to hit. Their wRC+ was 48% worse than league average!!!

I don't know who is going to be playing first base or the three outfield positions this year (except Naylor should get one of those spots) but how could the offensive production possibly be worse? We're talking about four of the nine spots in the batting order.

I don't know who will be playing shortstop but if they can hit .258/.750 they'll match Lindor's production at the plate last year. Gimenez hit .263/.732. The defense will be tough to match.

At catcher Roberto Perez hit .165 with 5 RBI's in 32 games. He was our best hitting catcher, beating out Leon (.132) and Hedges (1-for-12). How could it not be better next year?

Franmil hit a respectable .275/.795, but his power was well below expected with only 9 HR's in 211 AB's.

When you come right down to it second base and third base were the only positions where the Indians were above the norm. Maybe shortstop, but marginally. I have to believe it's not really this bad.

As for the pitching, the big losses were Carrasco and Hand. In Carrasco's 12 regular season starts the Indians were 6-6 and we lost his post-season start. He will be missed, but maybe not as much as people think.

Hand was awesome with two wins and 16 saves and a .169 BAA. The question is whether Clase and Karinchak can step in and pick up the slack.

I don't know if the Indians will be 10 wins worse this year. They got almost nothing offensively from the entire outfield, catcher, and first base last year. Lindor had the worst offensive year of his career. It all depends on whether guys like Mercado (.128!), Perez, Reyes, and Luplow (.192) can bounce back while new players (Rosario, Daniel Johnson) can step up.

It looks like Quantrill replaces Carrasco in the rotation and Clase replaces Hand in the bullpen. More question marks.

Our OF without a doubt will do way better since there is no way we could do worse. We did cut our best hitting OF in 20, aka DeShields, but he only hit to his career numbers, which arent great.

In my mind, I still would like to bring in a veteran at least setup guy with some closing experience (preferably from the left side) with a veteran OF that is proven hitter (even if defense is so-so since our guys can play legit defense out there). I still think one more MLB signing/trade will be made before spring starts.

Im more worried if guys like McKenzie and Quantrill can step into the rotation and produce at a good clip, then I am about our offense. It was almost historically bad in 20. I dont see why as a team we cannot replace the production numbers we lost from Los and Lindor.

 

[WhoAzcue]

I find it hilarious that anyone can say with a straight face that Francisco Lindor is the best shortstop in the game. He's a superb defender, but he hasn't had a real offensive highlight since game 2 of the 2017 ALDS (and certainly not another one the rest of that heartbreaking series). He's hit less than .190 w/RISP in over 200 games, failed miserably as our #3 hitter, and his OPS+ last year was exactly the same as his 21 year old replacement. The halo this guy has over his head is incredible.

Jose Ramirez had more big hits in just one week last year than Lindor had in his last two years. The Tribe would never have dealt Lindor had he been worth what he was being paid. He was NOT. And to get a 30% raise to $22.3m after the year he had last year is absurd, and made him virtually untradeable. A good argument could be made that Lindor's pedestrian last two seasons are what cost us Carrasco, because no one wanted to ante up for Lindor and trade warm bodies for him as well.

Anyone who compares Ramirez to Lindor's situation is completely missing the boat. I was in favor of playing out Lindor's control because I felt he'd be a monster down the stretch heading into free agency. He completely disappointed. THAT'S why he was dealt He wasn't worth what he was going to be paid.

Ramirez is worth every penny he's paid, and there is no reason to trade him as long as the team is competitive. And it remains so. There hasn't been a single decision--aside from being forced to deal CC because Lindor stunk up the joint--that hasn't been a sound baseball decision from the standpoint of value and performance. Anyone who advocates dealing Ramirez has to believe this team--which finished one game behind the division last year--has significantly lost ground since. I do not believe either the White Sox or Twins are juggernauts. They all have weaknesses that have gone unaddressed and possess potential pitfalls, just as we do.

Does everything have to go right for us to contend? Maybe. But it sure didn't all go right in 2020 or 2019 and the Tribe was right in the thick of the race both seasons. Nothing much has changed. Unless you think Lindor was a superstar and having a .199 hitting cleanup hitter and a closer throwing 91 mph are completely irreplaceable.

 

[CDAV45]

I find it hilarious that anyone can say with a straight face that Francisco Lindor is the best shortstop in the game. He's a superb defender, but he hasn't had a real offensive highlight since game 2 of the 2017 ALDS (and certainly not another one the rest of that heartbreaking series). He's hit less than .190 w/RISP in over 200 games, failed miserably as our #3 hitter, and his OPS+ last year was exactly the same as his 21 year old replacement. The halo this guy has over his head is incredible.

Jose Ramirez had more big hits in just one week last year than Lindor had in his last two years. The Tribe would never have dealt Lindor had he been worth what he was being paid. He was NOT. And to get a 30% raise to $22.3m after the year he had last year is absurd, and made him virtually untradeable. A good argument could be made that Lindor's pedestrian last two seasons are what cost us Carrasco, because no one wanted to ante up for Lindor and trade warm bodies for him as well.

Anyone who compares Ramirez to Lindor's situation is completely missing the boat. I was in favor of playing out Lindor's control because I felt he'd be a monster down the stretch heading into free agency. He completely disappointed. THAT'S why he was dealt He wasn't worth what he was going to be paid.

Ramirez is worth every penny he's paid, and there is no reason to trade him as long as the team is competitive. And it remains so. There hasn't been a single decision--aside from being forced to deal CC because Lindor stunk up the joint--that hasn't been a sound baseball decision from the standpoint of value and performance. Anyone who advocates dealing Ramirez has to believe this team--which finished one game behind the division last year--has significantly lost ground since. I do not believe either the White Sox or Twins are juggernauts. They all have weaknesses that have gone unaddressed and possess potential pitfalls, just as we do.

Does everything have to go right for us to contend? Maybe. But it sure didn't all go right in 2020 or 2019 and the Tribe was right in the thick of the race both seasons. Nothing much has changed. Unless you think Lindor was a superstar and having a .199 hitting cleanup hitter and a closer throwing 91 mph are completely irreplaceable.

Yeah, you're right. He's terrible and contributed to the Indians losing ways. SMH.

I wonder how Lindor performed when Ramirez was struggling?

 

[CDAV45]

Our OF without a doubt will do way better since there is no way we could do worse. We did cut our best hitting OF in 20, aka DeShields, but he only hit to his career numbers, which arent great.

In my mind, I still would like to bring in a veteran at least setup guy with some closing experience (preferably from the left side) with a veteran OF that is proven hitter (even if defense is so-so since our guys can play legit defense out there). I still think one more MLB signing/trade will be made before spring starts.

Im more worried if guys like McKenzie and Quantrill can step into the rotation and produce at a good clip, then I am about our offense. It was almost historically bad in 20. I dont see why as a team we cannot replace the production numbers we lost from Los and Lindor.

Why are you more worried about McKenzie and Quantrill? These 2 actually have real talent. Arguably more talent than most, and while talent is everything a player has to have it to contribute much at all. How much talent does the OF have. Luplow can mash LHP and Johnson has the highest upside unless Jones is an OFer.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Yeah, you're right. He's terrible and contributed to the Indians losing ways. SMH.

I wonder how Lindor performed when Ramirez was struggling?

It's not about Lindor contributing to losing, though he did kill a few rallies and they eventually gave up on him as a run producer in the 3-hole. The question is how will the production of Gimenez or Rosario in 2021 compare to what the Indians got from Lindor in 2020?

Among shortstops with at least 120 plate appearances last year Lindor ranked 21st of 47 in OPS+ with a score of 102. Offensively he was a tick above average. Jimenez ranked 20th at 104. Rosario ranked 35th with a score of 75. He was replaced by Gimenez who was much better.

You can argue that Lindor had a down year and that is correct. He'll be better this year. But the point is that if we get just league average offense from the SS position this year we won't lose anything offensively at shortstop, and it appears that's very possible.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Just wanted to point out Lindor was 0-for-6 last year with the bases loaded, although he did draw one walk.

In 60 at-bats with runners in scoring position he had 10 hits and struck out 14 times. That's a .166 BA.

In 21 at-bats with runners in scoring positon and two outs he ended the inning 17 times, although he did have six walks to give the next guy a chance.

I'd say overall he contributed to winning with his glove and the 27 RBI's in 60 games. But he also contributed to losing with his inability to hit when it mattered most. Overall it's probably a wash.

 

[Urban]

I find it hilarious that anyone can say with a straight face that Francisco Lindor is the best shortstop in the game. He's a superb defender, but he hasn't had a real offensive highlight since game 2 of the 2017 ALDS (and certainly not another one the rest of that heartbreaking series).

Since 2018, among SS:

78 HR, ranked 2nd only to Trevor Story

120 wrC+, ranked 7th. Players ahead of him include Bo Bichette, Tatis Jr, and Seager who each have 20%, 38%, and 53% of the plate appearances Lindor does in this timespan

Nevermind that he was about the only guy to show up in the 2018 ALDS vs Houston

I don't think he's the best SS in baseball but way to undersell the shit out of him

 

[CDAV45]

Since 2018, among SS:

78 HR, ranked 2nd only to Trevor Story

120 wrC+, ranked 7th. Players ahead of him include Bo Bichette, Tatis Jr, and Seager who each have 20%, 38%, and 53% of the plate appearances Lindor does in this timespan

Nevermind that he was about the only guy to show up in the 2018 ALDS vs Houston

I don't think he's the best SS in baseball but way to undersell the shit out of him

Thanks! You saved some typing.

 

[LL3]

How does one evaluate "best"? In the last season...even a 60 game season? A 3 or maybe 5 year window would seem to be a better gauge,, and clearly Lindor is among the top in that sort of discussion. What will he do for the next few years is of course tbd.