To Take the Next Step,,,,,

[daddywags]

Let's not forget that Pilkington threw over 50 innings of 3.88 ball. Yes, he needs to walk fewer, but is there reason to think that his control won't improve even if only slightly? It's going to be interesting to see what happens or if anything at all happens. Regardless, I have total confidence that any/all of Morris, Pilkington and even Battenfield can provide what Plesac can or better should they need to.

From what I saw I like Pilkington more than either Curry or Gaddis. I will be surprised if either of the latter two provide any help at the MLB level.

 

[CDAV45]

From what I saw I like Pilkington more than either Curry or Gaddis. I will be surprised if either of the latter two provide any help at the MLB level.

Me too DW....me too.

 

[Mott the Hoople]

I think we can expect the G's 23 pitching staff to perform about the same.
The top 3 SP seem to be what they are. The bottom 2 could be in-flux. I think the front office will look for reasons to get the young SP's some opportunities. The bullpen looks solid.

I think the big jump might come offensively. Here's how I see the "arrow poining" with our lineup:

S. Kwan =
A. Rosario =
JRam =
J. Bell /\
J Naylor /\
A Gimenez =
OGonz /\
M. Zunino =
M. Straw /\

Most of the offense should be maintained while others improve. That doesn't make us the betting favorite to win the AL. But we should be able to win the Central.

 

[RonG]

Pssst

 

[CDAV45]

So let's say that just 2 of Morris, Bibee, Pilkington, Battenfield, Toussaint and Allen pitch very well to start the season at whatever level they are assigned. I think they need to look at dealing 1 of Quantrill/Civale along with Plesac. There has to be a market for good to decent SP that isn't expensive. '

If they want to really push hard in 23 they can look to deal for Luzardo. He's an instant difference maker that isn't a FA until 2023.

 

[southernflyer]

The next step over the season will be offensive consistency. How many times did we cringe seeing the 7-9 hitters in the lineup being a combination of Clement/ Owen2 Miller/ Straw and Hedges in a row and chalking up an inning with the bottom of the order as three up, three down before it even started? Or "Jose/Smoke/Gimenez need to hit a HR to get us a couple of runs today"?

Getting career average years out of Straw and Zunino 85-88 OPS+ each, Bell 120 OPS+ and Arias around league average will do wonders for this team compared to Straw's 65, Hedges' 42, Franmil's 73 and Clement's 43 OPS+ last year. Anything we get above those averages is a bonus.

Think how much pressure that would take off of Civale/ Plesac/ Pilk/ Morris etc. in any of their SP4/5 starts knowing the team is going to average 4 runs? In 10 out of 18 of Civale/ Plesac's losses last year the Guardians scored 2 or less runs. That's a lot of pressure for our top 3, let alone the bottom of the rotation guys we expect to be replacing in the next year or two.

Health will be a big part of that, starting with Zunino. If he's injured or posts a '15/'19/'22 stat line and Straw imitates his Billy Dee Colt 45 OPS for three months, we won't be getting any better from that perspective. Not having Jose dropping 40 OPS after his thumb injury from MVP-type to probable all star numbers for half the year/postseason and Gimenez not dropping 20 OPS after his injury would balance out any potential "sophomore slump" regression from Kwan/SpongeBob/J. Naylor.

 

[Urban]

We lost Game 5 to the Yankees because we had to start Civale. We were 4-2 against Tampa and New York with our 1-3 starting.

If we could finish with one of the two best regular season records we could get a first round bye and never have to use our 4th starter until the A.L. Championship. But it will be very difficult to finish with a better record than Houston or New York.

Not necessarily true. Jameson Taillon, the Yankees #4, was set to pitch Game 5. The only reason he didn't was because Game 5 was pushed back a day due to rain.

 

[Urban]

Not necessarily true. Jameson Taillon, the Yankees #4, was set to pitch Game 5. The only reason he didn't was because Game 5 was pushed back a day due to rain.

Expanding on this because I forgot Game 2 was initially delayed too.

So if the Guardians had gone into the ALDS as the higher seed, fully rested and no delays, this is what they would've thrown:

Game 1- Tuesday 10/11- Bieber, full rest
Game 2- Thursday 10/13- McKenzie, full rest
Game 3- Saturday 10/15- Quantrill, full rest
Game 4- Sunday 10/16- Bieber, full rest
Game 5- Monday 10/17- McKenzie on short rest or full rest Civale

Tito was unwilling to throw Bieber on short rest, but it is possible he would've been willing to let McKenzie get a crack at it.

If Game 2 were scheduled the day after Game 1 (the 1 day gap is dumb), it would be a non-factor.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Pilkington is interesting because of his splits, which I posted somewhere.

1st time facing a batter: .220/.656
2nd time: .207/.626
3rd time: .407/1.108 (in 27 at-bats)

Third time through the order they got to him. For example, in his second-to-last start he got Mike Trout out twice but the third time up Trout hit a 2-run homer.

Also, Pilkington's ERA's the last three months were: June 4.66, July 3.86, and August 2.84, although in limited innings. But it suggests he may have been getting better.

I think Pilkingon could be a viable #5 starter if there are injuries to Civale or Plesac. But Tito needs to get him out of there before he faces the top of the order for the third time. What I don't like is his 1.47 WHIP, but he held opposing hitters to a .211 BA with RISP and two out.

So what this team needs to "take the next step" is more than 17 quality starts from the #4 and #5 starters. Assuming Bieber, TMac, and Quantrill combine for 93 starts like last year that means we'll need about 70 starts from other starters. We need more than 17 out of 70 quality starts from whoever that group ends up being.

That should be doable even if Plesac and Civale both get traded before the season starts.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Just to put a cap on it, Bieber, McKenzie, and Quantrill combined for 58 quality starts out of 93 last year, or 62.4%

The rest of the staff combined for 17 quality starts out of 69, or 24.6%.

The area with the most potential for improvement is the 4th and 5th starters, who averaged just one quality start out of four last year, in large part due to injuries to Civale and Plesac.

You might argue that the offense, which finished 14th of 30 in runs, could also improve significantly with the additions of Bell and Zunino, a full season of Oscar Gonzalez, and a healthy Jose Ramirez, and I think it definitely will.

Those are the two areas where I see the most potential for improvement.

 

[CDAV45]

Pilkington is interesting because of his splits, which I posted somewhere.

1st time facing a batter: .220/.656
2nd time: .207/.626
3rd time: .407/1.108 (in 27 at-bats)

Third time through the order they got to him. For example, in his second-to-last start he got Mike Trout out twice but the third time up Trout hit a 2-run homer.

Also, Pilkington's ERA's the last three months were: June 4.66, July 3.86, and August 2.84, although in limited innings. But it suggests he may have been getting better.

I think Pilkingon could be a viable #5 starter if there are injuries to Civale or Plesac. But Tito needs to get him out of there before he faces the top of the order for the third time. What I don't like is his 1.47 WHIP, but he held opposing hitters to a .211 BA with RISP and two out.

So what this team needs to "take the next step" is more than 17 quality starts from the #4 and #5 starters. Assuming Bieber, TMac, and Quantrill combine for 93 starts like last year that means we'll need about 70 starts from other starters. We need more than 17 out of 70 quality starts from whoever that group ends up being.

That should be doable even if Plesac and Civale both get traded before the season starts.

All valid obviously because it's actually his performance numbers, but will he improve and if so how much? You can see the potential in Konnor and some of it was a bit of a surprise. Seeing him hit 96-97 on the gun surprised me anyway. His FB is heavy and hard to square up. His slider has good spin and horizontal run. His change up has good fade. He's durable as hell. It's just impossible to know what his ceiling is and if he can obtain it.

Call me crazy, but I'm telling you that Battenfield can be even better than Pilkington, but they are very similar in their styles, size and durability. Now the question is will they even get an opportunity in Cleveland? With the rotation set and all of Morris, Bibee, Williams, Espino and Allen so close you have to wonder what their fates are.

 

[daddywags]

Pilkington is a lefty who can throw easy mid-90s and has the secondary stuff to be a rotation pitcher. Unless I'm mistaken, we haven't had one of those since CC. It's all projection at this point, and he's far more likely to flame out than to solidify a spot in our rotation, but he's interesting for sure. Better location with his FB is what I want to see first.

 

[mopete12]

Pilkington is a lefty who can throw easy mid-90s and has the secondary stuff to be a rotation pitcher. Unless I'm mistaken, we haven't had one of those since CC. It's all projection at this point, and he's far more likely to flame out than to solidify a spot in our rotation, but he's interesting for sure. Better location with his FB is what I want to see first.

Pilkington averaged 92 MPH on his fastball last year, which was below MLB average. He was in the 29th percentile for FB velocity according to baseball savant (to be fair, I'm guessing that also includes RP and not just SP) and had poor rankings in almost every category. In my opinion his ceiling is a 5th starter.

 

[Wham with the Right Hand]

Pilkington averaged 92 MPH on his fastball last year, which was below MLB average. He was in the 29th percentile for FB velocity according to baseball savant (to be fair, I'm guessing that also includes RP and not just SP) and had poor rankings in almost every category. In my opinion his ceiling is a 5th starter.

View attachment 14374

What jumps out is his ranking in the 8th percentile in hard hit percentage. Even worse is being in the 3rd percentile in barrell percentage. His stuff is good enough to get through the batting order twice if he's got pinpoint control, but the numbers show that hitters pretty much own him the third time they see him.

Notice his chase rate in the 10th percentile. Pitchers with marginal stuff really need to get batters to chase bad pitches, but Konner is not very good at that.

I also think his ceiling is a 5th starter for an average or below average team. One thing in his favor is that the Guardians relievers pitched the second fewest innings in the majors last year, which means we can afford to have a 5-and-fly or even a 4-and-fly guy as a temporary 5th starter when there is an injury.

But Pilkington probably isn't going to beat out Civale or Plesac and there are a number of younger, higher upside starters right behind him who will probably pass him this season. I see him as part of a trade package with the Pirates for Bryan Reynolds, but that's probably a pipe dream.

 

[CDAV45]

Pilkington averaged 92 MPH on his fastball last year, which was below MLB average. He was in the 29th percentile for FB velocity according to baseball savant (to be fair, I'm guessing that also includes RP and not just SP) and had poor rankings in almost every category. In my opinion his ceiling is a 5th starter.

View attachment 14374

I'd be cautious with those numbers. His FB is rarely under 92 and that's more of a cutter than a true FB. His FB is closer to 93-95 and he can reach for a little more occasionally like he did against the Royals. His ceiling is definitely higher than a #5 however unlikely it might be that he achieves his full potential. I'd give him the ceiling of a #3 with the odds favoring him of being a solid #4 if he improves his control. He's basically a LH Cal Quantrill if he gets his control in order.

Konnor Pilkington (24) career first win | June 1, 2022 | MLB highlights