(WAYYYY too early) 2025 NBA Draft Talk

[adam81king]

The Cavaliers pick is heading to Utah, so they aren't gonna have much interest in this (supposedly VERY good) draft.

Can anyone but Cooper Flagg go #1?

 

[NMCav]

The Cavaliers pick is heading to Utah, so they aren't gonna have much interest in this (supposedly VERY good) draft.

Can anyone but Cooper Flagg go #1?

We do have 2 2nd round picks. Can't wait for heated debates over who we should pick in the 2nd round next year.

 

[macbdog]

The Cavaliers pick is heading to Utah, so they aren't gonna have much interest in this (supposedly VERY good) draft.

Can anyone but Cooper Flagg go #1?

I still don't believe this is a real player.

 

[I'mWithDan]

We do have 2 2nd round picks. Can't wait for heated debates over who we should pick in the 2nd round next year.

In an ideal world, we’ll be able to trade both seconds to a contender who lacks a roster spot in the late 1st. So they can then take those picks and trade them for even more future seconds to facilitate deals.

 

[Jstock12]

 

[pinoycavsfan]

Danny Wolf looks like an 80's player. I like the name too.

 

[Sir'Dom Pointer]

Do we even have a draft pick? I'd love to gamble on a European prospect.

 

[JJ_PR]

Do we even have a draft pick? I'd love to gamble on a European prospect.

We have our own 2nd rounder and the Bucks 2nd rounder.

 

[Lee]

We have our own 2nd rounder and the Bucks 2nd rounder.

So we will wiff on both but then bring in an undrafted rookie who turns into Dean Wade or CPJ? lol

 

[Dr No]

So we will wiff on both but then bring in an undrafted rookie who turns into Dean Wade or CPJ? lol

whatever it takes. Our system is unorthodox, but hard to argue with the results?

 

[Lee]

whatever it takes. Our system is unorthodox, but hard to argue with the results?

Its just a joke. Wade, Strus and CPJ are undrafted.

The only 2nd rounders who play are Merrill who was the last draft pick in the 2nd, but to us he was a reclamation project, basically undrafted and Niang who also wasnt our 2nd rounder, JT Thor isnt our 2nd rounder either, but he is on a 2-way contract,

As for our 2nd rounders, Travers is on a two way contract, so is Bates. Neither have proven anything yet.

Long story short, only success so far on 2nd rounders on the current roster were not our 2nd rounders and we play 3 undrafted players. So I was just joking that much more likely that we have an undrafted player work out over any of our 2nd rounders.

 

[MD13]

In an ideal world, we’ll be able to trade both seconds to a contender who lacks a roster spot in the late 1st. So they can then take those picks and trade them for even more future seconds to facilitate deals.

I feel like I’m getting the hang of what your draft model looks for in prospects that I can tell what it’ll probably think of the top guys.

I’m sure Flagg will grade out as elite, Ace Bailey will be much lower than consensus, and it will really like Dylan Harper but maybe not at the uber elite level?

The one that strikes me as a toss-up is VJ Edgecombe. I say your model still loves him because of his insane steal and block rates even though the offensive efficiency so far is a disaster.

 

[I'mWithDan]

I feel like I’m getting the hang of what your draft model looks for in prospects that I can tell what it’ll probably think of the top guys.

I’m sure Flagg will grade out as elite, Ace Bailey will be much lower than consensus, and it will really like Dylan Harper but maybe not at the uber elite level?

The one that strikes me as a toss-up is VJ Edgecombe. I say your model still loves him because of his insane steal and block rates even though the offensive efficiency so far is a disaster.

Haven't got around to it yet......was waiting for 10-12 ish games to pull data but I can scrape some stuff maybe this weekend and show an initial list.

I'll be honest......in terms of guessing, the model always surprises me still.....but I'll guess it will actually LOVE Ace.

He does two things at SF that continually project to the NBA level......1. He scores well above a baseline level for a SF 2. He rebounds and a near elite level for a SF. He's going to get dinged for a low assist rate but I think his scoring and rebounding is going to override that.....just because it is so hard to find college level SF's who do both of the things he does.

VJ will be interesting. He's not the first prospect to be a disaster on offense. I'll have to pull some examples of guys who still had productive NBA careers because they were so good at everything else. To me, scoring matters far less for combo guards especially. The variation in guys who succeed at that spot specifically is large.

Flagg will be off the charts......it is probably more a question of if he'll be the #1 overall producer in the 10+ years of data. If you believe him to be a SF, I think he's going to start ahead of KD through 10 games. Which is wild.

 

[MD13]

Haven't got around to it yet......was waiting for 10-12 ish games to pull data but I can scrape some stuff maybe this weekend and show an initial list.

I'll be honest......in terms of guessing, the model always surprises me still.....but I'll guess it will actually LOVE Ace.

He does two things at SF that continually project to the NBA level......1. He scores well above a baseline level for a SF 2. He rebounds and a near elite level for a SF. He's going to get dinged for a low assist rate but I think his scoring and rebounding is going to override that.....just because it is so hard to find college level SF's who do both of the things he does.

VJ will be interesting. He's not the first prospect to be a disaster on offense. I'll have to pull some examples of guys who still had productive NBA careers because they were so good at everything else. To me, scoring matters far less for combo guards especially. The variation in guys who succeed at that spot specifically is large.

Flagg will be off the charts......it is probably more a question of if he'll be the #1 overall producer in the 10+ years of data. If you believe him to be a SF, I think he's going to start ahead of KD through 10 games. Which is wild.

Interesting about Ace... I just thought the mediocre shooting splits so far combined with the complete lack of assists would ding him. Overall a big believer in his game though, he looks like the best shotmaking big wing prospect since... Durant? I think he looks better than Tatum and Banchero as an iso tough-shot maker. More athletic than both too. Maybe MPJ with a good back? And I totally get the criticism with him that he makes everything a tough shot, but he might just be so good that it doesn't matter?

VJ is going to be so polarizing, and I don't know what to make of him. 5.1 stl% and 7.1 blk% but <45% efg says everything you need to know. Also an A+ athlete.

Does Flagg not get dinged a tad bit for offensive efficiency?

 

[I'mWithDan]

Does Flagg not get dinged a tad bit for offensive efficiency?

To a degree.....but the system is similar to how modern analytics have started to evaluate receivers. Something like shot volume has qualitative underlying data......it is an "earned" stat, even if a player has inefficiency in smaller samples. For a player to get that high of volume, his teammates and coaches are ceding those opportunities to him.

3PT % is something it largely discounts overall. FT and 3PT volume seem to be far better predictors for example and the point of quantifying total production, is to allow a player to compensate in areas by excelling in others. A wing that gets 10 FTA per 100 just washes out so much of that field goal inefficiency.