Week 8 Ravens at Browns

The Wizard of Moz said:
Cmon man this isn’t good faith

I was one of the very first people to turn on Watson and say he was the majority of the problem. I’m not just hopping on because everyone changed their mind. But also, if a large group of new people changed their mind based on additional data that they didn’t have previously, I think it’s pretty shitty to just ascribe it to group think

I’ve laid out a lot of reasons I believe Watson was the vast majority of the issue. I genuinely think his play this year rivals some of the very worst QBs we have ever had on this team. Thats backed by both data and just watching every browns game for the last 20 years. The fact that people fawned over the Raiders game (which I’m sure people are about to chime in with how that was actually a good game) is a perfect example of just how insanely bad Watson was. The bar was on the floor so if he tripped over a blade of grass he was applauded for it

The offense was historically bad. That wasn’t primarily driven by the 2 time coach of the year who specializes in offense

The offense will continue to look better. That isn’t a result of a new play caller
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FFS dude. I agree Watson sucks. I've said he's indecisive, he throws late, he fails to see open receivers, and on and on. I DON'T WANT HIM BACK. I was always pretty much on the fence about him but I end up trying to give any Browns QB the benefit of the doubt.

The ONLY point I've tried to make is that we had other problems with the offense besides Watson, and just refusing to say that Watson isn't the only problem has people painting me as some kind of Watson defender.

I simply refuse to state that all the penalties and other evidence of ineptitude and disorganization were completely on Watson, but that would require people to put some slightest amount of blame on Stefanski/Dorsey, which is blasphemy in these discussions.

I also attribute some of Winston's success to getting some OL back, and Chubb being one more week along in his come-back. But no, any and all improvement over the previous debacle of an offense must be placed completely on Watson or else there will be an endless parade of people ridiculing any such thought.

And that, sir, is group-think.
 
buzzdog said:
Our offense has been a comedy or errors and incompetence all season. Not only have there been too many penalties and unforced errors, but they have also come in clusters at the worst possible times to kill potential scoring drives. This is a quick AI query about the penalties so far this season:
  • Week 7 vs. Bengals
    The Browns had 10 penalties, including six against the offense, for a loss of 80 yards
  • Week 6 vs. Eagles
    The Browns had seven offensive penalties, including four against the offensive line
  • Game vs. Jaguars
    The Browns had 13 penalties for a loss of 100 yards
  • First two games
    The Browns had 24 penalties, which was double the average NFL team's penalties per game
Penalties can have a major impact on a game, as they can hurt a team's ability to score points and gain momentum. For example, in a game against the Jaguars, the Browns had four penalties on a drive late in the fourth quarter, which prevented them from putting the game away.

I know it's blasphemy and a violation of group-think to have an opinion that this wasn't completely Watson's fault. But the Browns made a structural change to mitigate some of the root causes of the error prone, inept offense that went beyond one position on the field.

Add the fact that some of our veteran OL finally came back and pass protection was exponentially better except for some blitz pick-ups. Yes, Winston gets the ball out faster than Watson. But against the Ravens there was a number of plays where he had all day top throw also, which was a first for this season. I know, blasphemy.

It was 99.99999% Watson's fault. Not 75%, not 60%. All the penalties, all the sacks, all the drops, all Watson's fault.

There, did I say it right?
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Nah, gotta be 100% my guy. :chuckle:

This whole thing has definitely gotten weird, where there are two sides and one is attempting to control against any analysis that doesn't put it all on Watson. The QB's performance (good or bad) will no doubt raise or lower the performance ceiling of the other offensive players. That almost goes without saying.

But it's fair to mention everything you just mentioned, and it's fair to wonder if, even with superior QB play, the rest of the offense is stable and consistent enough that the team can win a Super Bowl. Could Jared Goff, who threw for like 80 yards this past week while the rest of the team steamrolled their way to 50+ points get as many wins on this Browns team as he does with the Lions? It's fair to wonder that.

The offense looks a lot better for sure... but is it fair to wonder if the it wasn't 100% solely based on the QB change, and that Dorsey's skybox view of the game could have contributed to getting play calls in faster and having less pre-snap penalties (compared to week 7 which had the most since week 1)?

Yes, it's fair. No, that doesn't mean anyone is suggesting it wasn't mostly the QB change.
 
Ohio said:
This might be the silliest, most irrelevant debate I've ever read on this site :chuckle:
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Honestly... I think most are pretty much in agreement lol but the passive aggressiveness (myself included) is just getting ridiculous right now. Victory laps and all the calling out but not calling out people is just childish.
 
buzzdog said:
Our offense has been a comedy or errors and incompetence all season. Not only have there been too many penalties and unforced errors, but they have also come in clusters at the worst possible times to kill potential scoring drives. This is a quick AI query about the penalties so far this season:
  • Week 7 vs. Bengals
    The Browns had 10 penalties, including six against the offense, for a loss of 80 yards
  • Week 6 vs. Eagles
    The Browns had seven offensive penalties, including four against the offensive line
  • Game vs. Jaguars
    The Browns had 13 penalties for a loss of 100 yards
  • First two games
    The Browns had 24 penalties, which was double the average NFL team's penalties per game
Penalties can have a major impact on a game, as they can hurt a team's ability to score points and gain momentum. For example, in a game against the Jaguars, the Browns had four penalties on a drive late in the fourth quarter, which prevented them from putting the game away.

I know it's blasphemy and a violation of group-think to have an opinion that this wasn't completely Watson's fault. But the Browns made a structural change to mitigate some of the root causes of the error prone, inept offense that went beyond one position on the field.

Add the fact that some of our veteran OL finally came back and pass protection was exponentially better except for some blitz pick-ups. Yes, Winston gets the ball out faster than Watson. But against the Ravens there was a number of plays where he had all day top throw also, which was a first for this season. I know, blasphemy.

It was 99.99999% Watson's fault. Not 75%, not 60%. All the penalties, all the sacks, all the drops, all Watson's fault.

There, did I say it right?
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The Browns' offensive line committed penalties on three of their scoring drives last Sunday, man.

And they converted first downs after the penalties on all three of those drives.

I'll say this one more time and I truly cannot stress this to you enough.

When your quarterback is good, negative plays that happen around him like penalties and receiver drops and missed blocks simply aren't drive killers. Good QB play can and often does supersede mistakes that are made around him.

But when your QB is bad? Yeah, those things kills drives because your QB isn't capable of overcoming them.
 
Personally? Throwing out guys who only started 1-2 games in a season, I think Watson this season was legitimately the worst starting QB the Browns have had since 1999.

The only guy who really compares would be Deshone Kizer in 2017.
 
Two weeks ago everyone on this board thought Elijah Moore and Cedric Tillman absolutely sucked and no one would have batted an eye if either guy was cut.

So do they actually suck? Or were they playing with a quarterback who was incapable of throwing the ball on time and on target?

Two weeks ago everyone on this board thought the offensive line was one of the worst in the entire league.

So are they actually this horrible unit that allowed pressure over 40% of the time with an over 13% sack rate? Or did the QB who played in Week 8 simply get rid of the football faster than the QB who played in weeks 1-7?

Watson's shortcomings dragged every other player on the offense down and he no longer has the ability to overcome mistakes made by those around him.

The ridiculous thing is Winston isn't even a great QB! Flacco wasn't even a great QB either!

But those guys don't drop their eyes against pressure. Those guys get rid of the ball on time. Those guys push the ball down the field. Those guys aren’t mobile at all, but they understand how to subtly move around in the pocket to both help their OL and create throwing windows.

And Stefanski, even though a lot of people don't really agree with this, can absolutely design and scheme up a pretty hard to fuck up play action based vertical passing game.
 
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It'd be cool if we didn't have to resort to pretending we're the victim when people hold different points of view... this sort of thing sucks.
buzzdog said:
I know it's blasphemy and a violation of group-think
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buzzdog said:
It was 99.99999% Watson's fault. Not 75%, not 60%. All the penalties, all the sacks, all the drops, all Watson's fault.

There, did I say it right?
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buzzdog said:
refusing to say that Watson isn't the only problem has people painting me as some kind of Watson defender.
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buzzdog said:
I simply refuse to state that all the penalties and other evidence of ineptitude and disorganization were completely on Watson, but that would require people to put some slightest amount of blame on Stefanski/Dorsey, which is blasphemy in these discussions.
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buzzdog said:
But no, any and all improvement over the previous debacle of an offense must be placed completely on Watson or else there will be an endless parade of people ridiculing any such thought.
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buzzdog said:
And that, sir, is group-think.
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And, in case it wasn't clear, that absolutely is not "group-think."

We all had to experience an offense run with the same coaching staff, same players, and a myriad of different QB's:
  • Baker Mayfield
  • Jacoby Brissett
  • Joe Flacco
  • Jameis Winston
Those aren't even good quarterbacks, and things you are picking out, like penalties, weren't as big of an issue with them. The only time the penalties were severe was when Deshaun Watson was quarterback.

This is what I meant when I previously asked you how many experiments you need to see. We have 5 experiments with the QB as the independent variable. This is evidence. It supports the conclusion that the dependent variable (penalties) were not just correlated with, but caused by, the independent variable (the quarterback).

People have explained to you exactly how this could happen as well. After the coach calls the play into the QB's helmet, it's up to the QB to communicate the play to the rest of the team. It's up to the QB to check the line of scrimmage and make sure everything is good before snapping the ball. It's up to the QB to set a cadence and rhythm that the offense feels comfortable with.

So, no, you crying "group think" is not going to fly as some sort of trump card in this situation. When you're faced with years' worth of overwhelming evidence, and easily drawn conclusions, maybe it's time to at least attempt to understand them rather than complain that everyone is out to get you.
 
The very first pass of the game by Winston is the perfect microcosm of this whole debate.

2nd and 7. 12 personnel (2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB). Under center. Play action fake to Chubb.

Conklin is off balance and gets beat by a speed rush on the outside immediately.

If this had been Watson, I would have bet my life savings that this play would have been a sack for Baltimore because Deshaun would have either A. drifted backwards right into the path of rusher for a sack or B. dropped his eyes, panicked and tried to escape out to the left and still been sacked.

And if that sack had happened, and if you're a person who is inclined to spread the blame around, you'd have criticized Conklin instead of Watson because Conklin lost 1 on 1.

However, Winston felt the pressure front side and just very calmly just stepped up into the pocket which allowed Conklin to recover and ride the defender harmlessly up the field and out of the play.

But it doesn't end there...

Once Winston stepped up, his primary read was David Njoku on the deep drag. But the Ravens had Roquan Smith underneath the coverage in a shallow zone reading the QB and trying to jump routes. which essentially means in real speed, it looked like Njoku was double covered.

Let's say by some miracle that Watson did actually step up in the pocket or was able to escape the sack out to the left. In my opinion, due to a combination of not trusting his arm strength and a lack of anticipation, Watson would not have even considered attempting the throw to Njoku. He simply wasn't open enough for Watson to be comfortable enough to make that throw.

And if Watson doesn't attempt that throw, and if you're a person who is inclined to spread the blame around, you'd have criticized Njoku for not getting open and the play call for not providing a more open primary option for Watson to throw to.

However, Winston showed off his combination arm strength and his anticipation by throwing Njoku open in a tight coverage window.

The end result is a 20-yard gain on 2nd and 7 instead of a drive killing 8-yard loss on a sack.

Conklin made a mistake and it didn't take any sort of superhuman effort from Winston to make that mistake simply not matter whatsoever. It took nothing more than normal competent quarterback play to erase that.
 
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