Isaac 3 & D Okoro - A Two Way Playing Basketball Savant

[ChicagoCavFan]

I can see Sexton and Okoro, side-eyeing each other at opposite ends of the practice facility, wondering who will flinch first and hit the showers....

 

[Lee]

Hopefully Okoro follows the trend of our other young guys improving a lot after absolutely ass rookie seasons lol.

Sexton:
18-19: -4.7 BPM
19-20: -1.8 BPM
20-21: 0.0 BPM

Garland:
19-20: -5.6 BPM
20-21: -1.6 BPM

Okoro:
20-21: -5.0 BPM

And hopefully Mobley comes in a lot more NBA-ready than the three of them. I think in terms of BPM he’ll fall somewhere between -0.5 and 1.5 his rookie year.

Honestly guard/wing is easier to be NBA ready at a young age vs PF/C.

If you think Mobley will be more NBA ready than Sexton, then you will be disappointed. But I assure you, Mobley has by far the highest ceiling of any Cavs player. And I see paths to all star for Garland, Okoro and Sexton in that order of likelihood, just Mobley is that talented.

 

[bigfoot5415]

I can see Sexton and Okoro, side-eyeing each other at opposite ends of the practice facility, wondering who will flinch first and hit the showers....

They then embraced while covered in sweat, water & shame.

- That will be the hook for my upcoming Cavs-Erotica Novel.

 

[All4One1ForAll]

Honestly guard/wing is easier to be NBA ready at a young age vs PF/C.

If you think Mobley will be more NBA ready than Sexton, then you will be disappointed. But I assure you, Mobley has by far the highest ceiling of any Cavs player. And I see paths to all star for Garland, Okoro and Sexton in that order of likelihood, just Mobley is that talented.

Mobley will absolutely be more NBA ready than Sexton. We're not comparing Mobley to this version of Sexton. We're comparing him to the version of Sexton who had a dreadful rookie year. I agree with you in general guard prospects come in more ready than bigs. But Mobley is a much better prospect for a big than Sexton was for a guard.

When you look at the players Mobley resembles in their rookie years:

Garnett (96): 1.0 BPM
Bosh (04): -0.8 BPM
Davis (12): 2.5 BPM
JJJ (19): -0.3 BPM

I don't think it's unreasonable to project that Mobley lands in that -0.5 to 1.5 BPM range.

 

[Lee]

Mobley will absolutely be more NBA ready than Sexton. We're not comparing Mobley to this version of Sexton. We're comparing him to the version of Sexton who had a dreadful rookie year. I agree with you in general guard prospects come in more ready than bigs. But Mobley is a much better prospect for a big than Sexton was for a guard.

When you look at the players Mobley resembles in their rookie years:

Garnett (96): 1.0 BPM
Bosh (04): -0.8 BPM
Davis (12): 2.5 BPM
JJJ (19): -0.3 BPM

I don't think it's unreasonable to project that Mobley lands in that -0.5 to 1.5 BPM range.

Colin shot 40% from 3 and scored 16.7 points a game 3 rebs and 3 assists. I know you are using advanced stats, but calling Sexton's rookie year dreadful is way off base. As far as rookie years go it was excellent. As far as starting pg's in the NBA, it was bad, but he was a combo guard playing out of position as a rookie.

 

[MirORich]

Also have to consider the roster's around them at the time they played their rookie year. Collin came in to a team with a massive #23 hole in the center off its soul. A bunch of guys upset, feeling abandoned, and coming to grips with the fact that they were no longer going to be playing in the playoffs. A coach who essentially forced his way our after 5 games and an assistant coach who begrudgingly agreed to take over for the season.

Mobley comes in to a young roster, but one that has three lotto picks developing and some solid vets/early vets like Nance, Rubio and Allen. The MLE or a Cedi trade will likely bring in at least one more solid vet.

Point is, Mobley has the highest ceiling, but will also come in to a more stable, inching ever so closely to respectable team and from that base, he hopefully can/will have a rookie year impact more in line with that list of similar bigs BPMs

 

[David.]

Fill a guy in who hasn't cared about the cavs in awhile, what's the guy been up to this year? How's he play?

 

[All4One1ForAll]

Colin shot 40% from 3 and scored 16.7 points a game 3 rebs and 3 assists. I know you are using advanced stats, but calling Sexton's rookie year dreadful is way off base. As far as rookie years go it was excellent. As far as starting pg's in the NBA, it was bad, but he was a combo guard playing out of position as a rookie.

Any rookie can put up decent counting stats if given the green light though. Sure Sexton's pts/reb/ast splits looked okay, but how efficiently he accumulated those stats and what kind of offensive impact and defensive impact he had on the whole tell the real story. Despite shooting well from 3, Sexton's attempts were low and his overall scoring efficiency of 52% TS was 4% below league average. That's already a bad sign considering Sexton came into the league being able to score and virtually everything else needed work. 3.0 apg and 2.3 topg is awful for a guy in the point role playing 32 mpg. 2.9 rpg is nothing to write home about. He wasn't generating any steals. His on-off was -8.0. He finished 513/515 in RPM with a -5.28 mark. 691/698 in RAPM with a -3.50. His RAPTOR Wins Above Replacement placed him dead last in the NBA at 530th (-7.4). His WS/48 was negative. His BPM of -4.7 was near the bottom for qualified players. And Sexton had constant complaining directed his way with accusations of not knowing how to play basketball and fit into a team concept.

I think you're taking this too personally. Sexton was by all accounts a very strong negative on the court as a rookie. But fortunately he's made major improvements since then, getting better every season, which isn't surprising given his work ethic.

 

[Lee]

Any rookie can put up decent counting stats if given the green light though. Sure Sexton's pts/reb/ast splits looked okay, but how efficiently he accumulated those stats and what kind of offensive impact and defensive impact he had on the whole tell the real story. Despite shooting well from 3, Sexton's attempts were low and his overall scoring efficiency of 52% TS was 4% below league average. That's already a bad sign considering Sexton came into the league being able to score and virtually everything else needed work. 3.0 apg and 2.3 topg is awful for a guy in the point role playing 32 mpg. 2.9 rpg is nothing to write home about. He wasn't generating any steals. His on-off was -8.0. He finished 513/515 in RPM with a -5.28 mark. 691/698 in RAPM with a -3.50. His RAPTOR Wins Above Replacement placed him dead last in the NBA at 530th (-7.4). His WS/48 was negative. His BPM of -4.7 was near the bottom for qualified players. And Sexton had constant complaining directed his way with accusations of not knowing how to play basketball and fit into a team concept.

I think you're taking this too personally. Sexton was by all accounts a very strong negative on the court as a rookie. But fortunately he's made major improvements since then, getting better every season, which isn't surprising given his work ethic.

I am not a huge Sexton fan. He is too good to give away, but he isnt a do the little things well type of player. What he does well DOES make the stat sheets. Okoro is kind of the opposite type player.

I am just saying you ask most NBA coaches and they will not say Sexton had a horrible rookie year., in fact I doubt you find one that calls Sexton's rookie year even bad.

 

[All4One1ForAll]

I am not a huge Sexton fan. He is too good to give away, but he isnt a do the little things well type of player. What he does well DOES make the stat sheets. Okoro is kind of the opposite type player.

I am just saying you ask most NBA coaches and they will not say Sexton had a horrible rookie year., in fact I doubt you find one that calls Sexton's rookie year even bad.

Those coaches would be wrong then. Nothing supports the idea that Sexton was good his rookie year outside of non-specific descriptors like "showed killer instinct" or "fearless scorer." Sure, he improved as the season went on, but on the whole the data overwhelmingly supports the idea that he was very rough on the whole and a big reason why the Cavs finished 30th/30th in SRS/tied for the 2nd worst record in the league. It's okay to be bad as a rookie! Again, he's improved since then and lots of guys come into the league being a huge negative before they adjust and learn how to contribute to winning ball games. I'm still relatively not the biggest Sexton fan either, but I'm impressed he's improved as much as he has.

 

[Lee]

Those coaches would be wrong then. Nothing supports the idea that Sexton was good his rookie year outside of non-specific descriptors like "showed killer instinct" or "fearless scorer." Sure, he improved as the season went on, but on the whole the data overwhelmingly supports the idea that he was very rough on the whole and a big reason why the Cavs finished 30th/30th in SRS/tied for the 2nd worst record in the league. It's okay to be bad as a rookie! Again, he's improved since then and lots of guys come into the league being a huge negative before they adjust and learn how to contribute to winning ball games. I'm still relatively not the biggest Sexton fan either, but I'm impressed he's improved as much as he has.

He was good for a rookie his rookie year. Thus he had a good rookie year. Not suggesting he was an all star or anywhere close as a rookie.

 

[All4One1ForAll]

He was good for a rookie his rookie year. Thus he had a good rookie year. Not suggesting he was an all star or anywhere close as a rookie.

Agree to disagree lol. If you had any kinds of stats that support your case outside of ppg, which is a product of opportunity and which he didn't achieve efficiently, that would help. But they don't exist. Raw ppg aren't so valuable if you're scoring at an efficiency below replacement level. The Cavs on the whole scored on 54% TS while Sexton scored on 52% TS. The Cavs mustered a 12.2% TOV rate while Sexton posted a 12.3% TOV rate. Sexton was pretty inarguably the worst defender on the team imo, though I'm sure you saw him as an average defender lol. Sexton's AST/TO ratio was 1.31 while the Cavs' on the whole was 1.54.

When a player is scoring very inefficiently, not running the offense well, and bleeding points on defense, yet dominating the ball more than any other player and leading the team in minutes, it's not surprising the pts/ast/reb line can look okay despite that player being a very strong negative in terms of actual impact/contribution to winning games. By no measure was Sexton good his rookie year, and the actual players alongside him and people in the organization who voiced displeasure didn't seem to think so either. Hell, just look back at what people in this thread were saying 2.5 years ago - people who were watching him play in real time. We're not talking about flashes. We're not talking about potential shown. We're not talking about Sexton right now. Strictly in his rookie year, Sexton was a very rough player and I don't see how this can be contested. It's not a big deal, man.

 

[The Human Q-Tip]

Advanced stats tend to be unkind to everyone on a bad team.

 

[Lee]

Advanced stats tend to be unkind to everyone on a bad team.

Exactly. Plus he is comparing to non rookie stats. Sexton had a decent rookie year by most measurements of a rookie year. Dont fall in love with advanced stats, they are a tool not a gospel.

 

[J_J]

Yep. We know that to pretty much be the same for Sexton as well. Not sure on Garland but I wouldn't be surprised if he's the same way. Allen probably too but he won't be working out with the team and risking injury until his free agency/extension is sorted out.

When you talk about Mobley, Okoro, Sexton, Garland, and Allen, it actually is a great core personalities and hard workers. Obviously, a longer wing is necessary and at some point, the likely could benefit from one wild card, edgier dude but that can wait until the culture is established and 100% solid

That’s the kind of team and culture Koby wanted to create. It took some time but from here it’s going to be fun with these guys and see how they develop as a team.