The Cavs stay home to take on the Milwaukee Bucks after a come-from-behind 4th quarter win over the Grizzlies, who have now lost 8 of their last 9. It was not a pretty win.
I thought tonight we were going to come out with much, much more energy. We didn’t...cognitively, we weren’t there. We’ve gotta get our juice back - KA
The Cavs are shooting 30% on 3’s over their last four games, a sample size of 193 attempts. In terms of energy, intensity, and 3-point shooting the Cavs have not impressed recently.
The Bucks are 8-6 overall and 3-3 on the road. The Cavs are 5-2 at home and beat the Bucks in Game 3 in Cleveland by a 118-113 score. The Cavs should have the same players available for Monday’s game with the possible exception of Jaylon Tyson, who was a -13 in 15 minutes in the first game. The Cavs will also have Nae’Qwan Tomlin who was inactive in the first game. Tyson is listed as day-to-day and Garland is out.
The Bucks will also have the same players except for Taurean Prince, who had 8 points in 31 minutes.
The Bucks won the first two games of the season but since then have gone 6-6, alternating between wins and losses. Everything points to them being a mediocre team.
Giannis had a line of 40/14/9 against the Cavs on 14-for-20 from the field but the Bucks still lost by 5 points. His slash line for the season is 33/11/7 on an impressive 63% from the field and 50% on 3’s. However, he is only averaging 1.5 three-point attempts per game.
Ryan Rollins, a 6’3” guard, has a slash line of 17/4/5 on 53% overall and 46% on 3’s. Veterans Kyle Kuzma and Myles Turner average 14 and 12 points per game and 3-point sniper AJ Green averages 11. The Bucks outscore their opponents by an amazing 20.7 points per 100 possessions when Giannis is on the floor. When he’s on the bench the Bucks are outscored by 20.8 points.
Obviously the key to beating Milwaukee is to play them fairly close when Giannis is in the game and then hammer them in the 14-15 minutes when he’s on the bench.
As a team the Bucks rank 13th in scoring. They are 1st in effective field goal percentage and 2nd in 3-point percentage at 41.1%. However, they are just 22nd in field goal attempts per game as they take their time setting up those high percentage shots.
They are also 29th in offensive rebound percentage so they don’t get many second chance points. They also don’t get to the line much, ranking 29th in free throws made per game. They're great shooters but below average in shots taken, second chance points, and free throw points so the result is an average scoring team.
I don’t know if part of the reason why they are 2nd in 3-point percentage is that Giannis gets doubled so much that it creates uncontested looks from deep, but I think it’s likely. If I were the Cavs I would not double him, let him get his 40 points again, but don’t let him kick it out to outstanding 3-point shooters like Green (47%) and Rollins (46%) for easy 3’s.
Sometimes double-teaming Giannis late in the shot clock after he’s hammered his way to the low post is effective, but it has to be timed right. In his 13th year he’s seen every defense.
The Bucks rank 19th in scoring defense. They’re better at defending 3’s, ranking 7th at 34.3%. Considering how badly the Cavs have been shooting 3’s over the last four games I think they should attack the rim and pull up for mid-range shots. The Bucks rank 20th in defending 2’s and the Cavs are doing much better on 2’s than 3’s lately.
The Bucks are 28th in opponents’ free throw attempts per possession so they foul a ton, another reason not to shoot a lot of 3’s against them. In the first game the Cavs went to the stripe 35 times, making 28. The Bucks made just 20 free throws so it was a 15-point Cavs’ advantage in a 5-point win. Mobley was 12-for-12.
The Bucks are 21st in defensive rebounding percentage, so crash the glass on offense.
The key to this game is whether the Cavaliers come out with energy, which they did not do on Saturday according to Kenny. They’ve also had four bad shooting games in a row from the 3-point line. Merrill is in a slump, although Lonzo Ball is coming around (10-for-19).
I want to see the Cavs playing with intensity, attacking the rim, and not dribbling around on the perimeter and jacking up contested 3’s late in the clock. When they get an open look I want to see them knocking it down. On defense I want them to defend the 3-point line against the NBA’s second most accurate team and let Giannis have his buckets inside. Giving up 2 is better than 3, but don't let Giannis get you into foul trouble. Cavs' opponents have been getting into the bonus way too early for my liking recently.
I’d also like to see them set a fast pace and make Giannis sprint up and down the floor more than he wants to. Tire him out as much as possible because the Bucks are an awful team when he’s on the bench. If he's tired he's likely to miss more shots.
The Bucks got blown away by the Lakers on Saturday by a 119-95 score. Doncic had 41 and went to the line 20 times. Kuzma and Myles Turner combined for 4 points and 1 assist in 50 minutes. The Cavs need to look at the film of that game.
Injury Report
CLEVELAND
Darius Garland - OUT (toe)
Jaylon Tyson - OUT (concussion)
Max Strus - OUT (foot)
MILWAUKEE
Giannis Antetokounmpo - PROBABLE (knee)
Taurean Prince - OUT (neck)
Kevin Porter Jr - OUT (knee)