After a late 4th quarter win over the depleted Bucks (sans Giannis) the Cavs get a day off before hosting the red hot Houston Rockets.
The Athletic’s Tuesday power poll has the Rockets 4th. Their comment:
After a 0-2 start, the Rockets have won 9 of 10. They’re just thoroughly overwhelming on the glass, which makes up for whatever ball-handling loss they have with VanVleet out for the season. Houston is getting quite thin, as forward Dorian Finney-Smith (ankle) hasn’t debuted yet, while forward Tari Eason (oblique) is probably out until winter.
Thin or not the Rockets are on a roll. Cleaning the Glass has them 2nd to OKC in point differential in non-garbage time at +13.0. The Cavs are 10th at +4.1.
Kenny said after the Bucks game that the Cavs are “clunky” right now.
We’re still a little bit clunky on both sides of the ball,” Atkinson explained. “I told the guys we’ve been kind of coming with our B game. Against Houston, that’s not gonna get it done, they know that.”
The Rockets have had two days off after beating Orlando at home in OT. With DFS and Eason out they went with an 8-man rotation. Kevin Durant played 45 of the 53 minutes (but still nailed some huge 3’s down the stretch), Alperen Sengun played 45 minutes, Jabari Smith Jr 43, and Amen Thompson 39. This team is the Knicks of the West. The Rockets won the rebounding battle by a massive 60-38 margin.
This was the first Rockets’ win by less than 7 points.
The Rockets are the highest scoring team in the NBA at 124.8 points per game. They lead the league in 3-point percentage at an amazing 42.6%, but they are last in 3-point rate as only 33.2% of their shots are 3’s. The Cavs are just under 50% in 3-point rate. The Rockets shoot fewer 3’s than any team but they make the highest percentage.
The Rockets make 52.3% of their 2’s which ranks 25th, so clearly the key is to make them shoot 2’s. They’re scoring 105 points per 100 shots on 2’s against 128 on 3’s.
The Rockets are huge; their starting front line is Sengun (6’11”, 243), Durant (6’11”, 240), and Smith (6’11”, 220). Amen Thompson is 6’7” and Josh Okogie is 6’4”. Steven Adams (6’11”, 265) comes off the bench.
The result of all this length AND bulk is the Rockets are far and away the top offensive rebounding team in the Association. You can’t keep them off the glass, especially if your bigs are on the skinny side. The Rockets get the offensive board on 38.6% of their missed shots. The next best team is at 31.5%. Over the last eight years the only team that finished the season over 30% was Houston last year at 31.7%. Can’t wait until they get 6’8” Tari Eason back.
I don’t see how the Cavs can possibly win this game unless they are simply lights out on 3’s. That being said, the Magic took the Rockets to OT on Sunday despite being outrebounded 60-38.
Houston is scoring 34 points per 100 missed shots/free throws in non-garbage time, which leads the NBA. The Cavs are averaging about 25, which ranks 13th.
The Rockets are kind of an old school team as they rank 27th in pace and last in 3-point rate. They take their time and try to set up a high percentage 2-point shot, then crash the glass. But they’re 25th in 2-point percentage so maybe they should take more 3’s. I’ve never seen a team that ranks 1st in 3-point percentage and last in 3-point rate.
Durant leads the way, of course, with a slash line of 26/5/3 on 51% overall and 40% on 3’s. At age 37 he’s averaging 36 minutes per game. Is he going to make it to the playoffs at this rate?
Alperen Sengun, age 23, was an All-Star selection as a reserve last year. His line is 23/10/7 on 48% overall and 45% on 3’s. Much better to make him take 2’s as his shooting percentages are the same.
Amen Thompson has a line of 17/6/5 but is only shooting 21% from deep. He’s the one guy you can slough off on. Jabari Smith, Jr averages 15 points and 6 rebounds. Josh Okogie is a 27-year-old journeyman averaging 8 points and 1 assist in 23 minutes per game. He’s starting for Fred Van Vleet, who is out for the year.
Reed Sheppard, a 6’2” guard, comes off the bench to average 13 points on 48% from deep. He’s another guy you need to run off the line as he’s just 51% on 2’s. He’s their Sam Merrill.
Even though the Rockets play at one of the slowest paces in the league they rank 7th in shots per game because of all the offensive rebounds. They average 16.4 per game. Everybody on the floor for the Cavs has to crash the defensive glass.
If the Rockets get the rebound the Cavs need to quickly find their man to prevent a kickout for an uncontested 3. This is something I think they have not been good at so far. Too many times an offensive rebound turns into a wide open 3 because the Cavs are either leaking out or clustering in the paint.
Defensively the Rockets are 6th in points allowed per game. They are 7th in opponents’ 2-point percentage, which is not surprising given all that height. They are 19th in 3-point percentage so this is an opponent that the Cavs probably need to shoot a lot of 3’s against, especially since they're at home and had a day off.
I could also see the Cavs fast breaking at every opportunity as big boys like Durant (at 37), Sengun, and Steven Adams aren’t exactly racehorses. The Rockets are 12th in fast break points allowed per game so they’re not bad in this area.
The Rockets don’t force a lot of turnovers (23rd) and they don’t foul much (4th in free throws per possession). Opponents shoot a lot of 3’s against them (5th most), probably because they don’t want to attack the rim against all those 6’11” guys. However, the Rockets are just average at defending the rim and blocking shots.
I feel like the Cavs don’t match up well against a team that has this much length and muscle. Guys like Sengun and Adams can simply push their way into position on the offensive glass while Durant and Smith are 6’11” and Thompson is a 6’7” athletic leaper. I think Sengun and Adams will be able to push Mobley and Allen under the rim for a lot of putbacks.
Thomas Bryant is listed at 6’9”, 248 so I think he’ll get a lot of run. He's a guy who could joust with Sengun and Smith. Adams weighs 265 but only averages 6 points per game and 51% from the field. Allen and Mobley need to stay out of foul trouble.
Garland and Tyson are listed as game time decisions so the Cavs might get a little help.
Injury Report
CLEVELAND
Sam Merrill - QUESTIONABLE (wrist)
Darius Garland - OUT (toe)
Jaylon Tyson - OUT (concussion)
Max Strus - OUT (foot)
HOUSTON
Jabari Smith - QUESTIONABLE (knee)
Fred Van Vleet - OUT (knee)
Dorian Finney-Smith - OUT (ankle)
Tari Eason - OUT (hip)