Losers of two straight and eliminated from the NBA Cup (a crushing blow to their fans to be sure) the Cavs return home for a rematch against the despised Celtics. These teams met in Boston on Oct. 29 with the Celtics smacking down the Cavs by a 125-105 score. The Cavs were missing Garland and Merrill that game. Mitchell only scored 3 points in the last 3 quarters so he may not have been 100%.
This time around the Cavs will be without Allen, Merrill, Ball, and Nance. Porter is a game time decision.
The Celtics are 10-9 and won 4 of 5 before losing a close one in Minnesota Sunday. They will be on the second night of a back-to-back with travel. Jaylen Brown and Derrick White each played 39 minutes with Brown scoring 41 points on 32 shots. I watched the game; Brown worked his butt off and going in he was questionable with back spasms. He might sit tomorrow. If not, he and White will likely be tired on Sunday afternoon.
The Celtics beat Detroit and Orlando the last two games before playing the T-Wolves so Boston has been playing very well recently. In non-garbage time the Celtics have a +4.3 point differential to +3.3 for the Cavs.
Having lost Jason Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, and Luke Kornet since last year the Celtics are no longer a force, but they’re holding their own so far. They are 6-4 at home.
Jaylen Brown is averaging 28 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists on 50% from the field and 34% on 3’s. Brown, Payton Pritchard, Derrick White, and Anfernee Simons combine to take about 61 of the Celtics 92 shots per game. Pritchard, White, and Simons are averaging 17, 16, and 14 points respectively. C Neemias Queta averages 9 points and 8 boards in 24 minutes, but he was impressive last night with 19 points (on 8 field goal attempts) and 18 rebounds, of which 8 were on the offensive glass. He dominated Rudy Gobert.
This version of the Celtics is outstanding defensively as they rank 2nd in opponents’ points per game. They are 2nd in points in the paint allowed so their forte is rim protection. They only average 5.3 blocks per game but what I recall from the October game against the Cavs is how aggressively the Celtics collapse into the paint when the ball goes inside. Anytime the ball is in the paint there are several Celtics clawing at it from all sides.
It seems the best approach would be to attack the rim, collapse the defense, and kick it out before they can strip the ball. The Celts rank 2nd in opponents’ 2-point percentage and 12th in 3-point percentage so their strategy is to prevent 2-point field goals and make you beat them from deep. However, the Celtics foul a lot when hacking at the ball, ranking second worst in free throw attempts allowed per possession so attacking the rim could result in a lot of free throws.
In the first game the Cavs took a crazy 52 shots from deep, missing 35. As a result they only scored 105 points. They were 18-for-35 on 2-point shots so they should attack the rim more this time around. The Cavs were 4-for-28 on 3’s in the second half and that’s what got them beat along with allowing 18 offensive rebounds. The Celtics rank 9th in offensive rebound percentage so the Cavs need to emphasize getting on the defensive glass.
The other issue was the Celtics’ bench blew away the Cavs’ bench 45-18. Sam Hauser was 7-for-13 on 3’s. He averages 6.6 ppg but had 21 that night. Larry Nance Jr had no points in 14 minutes and Lonzo had 3 points in 24 minutes. The Cavs as a team shot 40% from the field and 33% on 3’s.
The Celtics are last in the NBA in pace which is one reason they rank 2nd in points allowed per game. Their opponents take fewer shots than any team. But the Celts excel at forcing missed shots, ranking 3rd in opponents’ effective field goal percentage.
The one area where the Celtics are vulnerable defensively is rebounding where they are 4th worst at defensive rebound percentage. The Cavs had 11 offensive boards the first game but they need to do better against this team, especially if the Cavs are going to miss 35 three-point shots. That's a lot of offensive rebound opportunities.
Offensively the Celtics rank 22nd in points per game despite taking the 3rd most field goal attempts per game. They play slower than anybody but they also commit fewer turnovers than any team and get a lot of offensive boards so they end up with a lot of shot attempts in spite of the slow pace.
The Celtics are a jump shooting team, ranking last in shot attempts at the rim, 6th in the mid-range, and 4th on 3’s. In terms of accuracy they are 19th on 3’s so maybe they should go to the rim more. The Cavs are the same, ranking 2nd in 3-point rate but only 20th in 3-point accuracy. The Cavs are above average in accuracy at the rim and mid-range, but are just 24th and 23rd in frequency from those spots. Both teams are shooting way too many 3’s and too few layups and mid-range shots according to the shooting percentages.
As expected the Celtics are 28th in points in the paint and 27th in fast break points. They take their time, play the half-court game, and relentlessly use screens to set up open 3’s and mid-range jumpers. They take 47% of their shots from beyond the arc. They rank last in free throw attempts per possession, obviously due in part to shooting so many 3’s.
For the Cavs to win they need to defend the 3-point shot effectively and get everybody on the defensive glass to prevent those long rebounds off 3-point misses that the Celtics excel in tracking down. Limit the Celtics to one shot. After the first game I had this comment:
Queta had 13 boards to 6 for Allen and they each played 25-26 minutes. Once again Allen was dominated on the glass.
Allen is out and Queta is much more physical than Mobley so Mobley will need help on the defensive glass, especially if he's venturing away from the rim to contest the shot.
The Cavs also need to be more disciplined on defense. After the first game I had this comment:
Deandre Hunter was awful; 5-for-17 and a team worst -25. He kept wandering away from his man, leaving him open for an uncontested 3. Mobley had a solid line of 19/11/4 but was -22. Tyson had 19 points but fouled out in 27 minutes. He's a foul machine. The Celtics were in the bonus early in every quarter as the Cavs couldn't resist fouling them even far from the rim when they weren't shooting.
On offense the Cavs should probably play the inside-out game where they dump it into the low post or get dribble penetration then kick it out for an uncontested 3. Take advantage of how aggressively the Celtics collapse their defense when the ball goes inside. Mobley was stripped three times early when he didn’t get his shot up quickly enough. He can't be dribbling in the paint because the Celtics collapse like wolves. But the inside-out game will only work if we don't consistently brick uncontested 3's like in the first game.
The Celtics current depth chart has Queta (7’0”) and Luke Garza (6’10”) at center, but their other four starters are 6’6” or shorter. Forwards Brown and Jordan Walsh are 6’6”. The Celtics are not tall but they are quick. In the first game Doris Burke noted that the Celtics were beating the Cavs to every loose ball and long rebound. She was right.
Our energy level was super low in every phase. - Kenny Atkinson
Not just low - “super low.” A pretty damning indictment by Kenny. He threw them under the bus. And like this game the Cavs had the previous day off.
Mobley was 7-for-19 with 3 turnovers as the Celtics did a great job of doubling and tripling him in the paint. The Cavs need to be prepared for this tactic and have a better plan this time or the Celtics, tired or not, will wipe the floor with them again.
This game will probably be decided in the first 24 minutes as the Celtics are 9-1 when they have a halftime lead and 1-7 when they are behind.
Injury Report
CLEVELAND
Craig Porter Jr - QUESTIONABLE (hamstring)
Jarrett Allen - OUT (finger)
Larry Nance Jr - OUT (calf)
Lonzo Ball - OUT (knee)
Sam Merrill - OUT (wrist)
Max Strus - OUT (foot)
BOSTON
Jayson Tatum - OUT (achilles)