After depositing a lump of coal in their fans' Christmas stockings thanks to a choke job in New York the Cavs continue with a tougher stretch of their schedule, starting with a trip to Houston. The Rockets are 18-10 overall and 8-2 at home. Their only home losses were to Detroit and Denver, so this game will not be eggnog and brandy.
The Rockets hit a bit of a speed bump recently, losing 5 of their last 8 games. All five losses were on the road to Western Conference teams. On Christmas they bounced back by thumping the Lakers 119-96.
In the last three weeks the Rockets have lost to Dallas (12-20) by 13, to New Orleans (6-22) in OT, to Sacramento (7-23) in OT, and to the LA Clippers (8-21) by 10. The Rockets have had some stinkers against bad teams recently, but they haven’t lost at home in five weeks and that was against Denver (22-8).
On Nov. 19 the Rockets beat the Cavs in Cleveland 114-104. The Cavs were without Garland and Merrill and the Rockets were missing starting center Tori Eason. The Rockets exploded for 40 points in the 4th quarter and had 16 offensive rebounds, 6 by the giant Kiwi Steven Adams. Sounds a lot like the Knicks win on Christmas with Adams in the Mitchell Robinson role.
The Cavs missed 12 free throws and were 31% on 3’s or they could have won that game. Jarrett Allen had 8 points and 8 rebounds in 27 minutes, almost identical to his stats against the Knicks.
Sports Illustrated had this on the Rockets:
The main reason the Rockets were able to transform their team from a lottery team to a consistent winning team since Ime Udoka took over has been because of their tough defense and historic rebounding. The Rockets won 52 games last season because they were a top five defense and the best rebounding team in the NBA.
In the first two months of this season, the Rockets were winning the same way, but they also added a top-five offense.
The Rockets are 3rd in scoring at 120.1 ppg. They rank last in 3-point rate as only 33% of their field goal attempts are beyond the arc. However, they are 2nd in 3-point success rate at 39.8%. It’s like they avoid shooting 3’s unless they’re so wide open that their chances are excellent.
The Rockets play slow (29th in pace) and commit a lot of turnovers (27th), but they are still 11th in field goal attempts because they get so many offensive rebounds. They are the best offensive rebounding team in the Association by a huge margin. The Rockets rebound 37.8% of their missed shots with the next closest team at 32.6%. Making them miss a shot is just half the battle; getting the rebound is the other half. Nobody can leak out after contesting a shot.
The Rockets rank 2nd in percentage of mid-range shots as Kevin Durant loves that 15-footer. Fully 61% of his shots are mid-range which is in the top 1% in the league. Alperen Sengun takes 51% in the mid-range.
The Rockets rank 23rd in 2-point shooting percentage so it’s better to chase them off the 3-point line. They are just 20th in mid-range accuracy versus 2nd in 3-point accuracy and 3-pointers are worth more so the math is obvious.
One area where the Cavs have an advantage is the Rockets turn the ball over a lot, ranking 3rd worst in that category. The Cavs are 5th in forcing turnovers, so the Cavs should take some risks in hunting steals since they’re not going to get the rebound if the Rockets miss the shot anyway.
Kevin Durant, now 37, continues to roll, averaging 36 minutes per game with a slash line of 25/5/4 on 51% from the field and 43% on 3’s. The Cavs held him to 6-for-18 in the first game. Center Alperen Sengun has a line of 23/9/7 and was even better at 28/11/7 in the first game, albeit with 5 turnovers. Sengun and Adams dominated inside as the Rockets had 52 points in the paint.
Jabari Smith averages 16/7/2 and Amen Thompson 18/7/5. Center Tari Eason averages 12 points. Reed Sheppard comes off the bench to average 13 points on 44% from deep. Aaron Holiday shoots 44% from deep and had 18 against the Cavs in 19 minutes on only 7 field goal attempts.
The only vulnerability I see on offense is that the Rockets commit a lot of turnovers and shoot a high percentage of 2’s. They’re heavily dependent on offensive rebounding. If the Cavs can force turnovers and not get killed on the defensive glass they could hold the Rockets to 114 points again.
The NBA recently released a new statistic that helps determine how effective a star's gravitational pull is on a defense. 'Player gravity' is cited as, "how much a player pulls defenders towards them above expected, essentially measuring how much attention they draw compared to what the spacing on the floor predicts.”
Durant is second in the league in this stat (17.2), only behind Stephen Curry (20). The Slim Reaper leads the league in off-ball interior gravity (15.9), showing just how much he pulls defenses into the paint when the ball isn't in his hands. - SI.com
The Cavs should not get sucked into KD’s “gravity” and expose themselves to uncontested 3’s. If he beats his man for a 2-point shot, fine. Don’t help out and leave somebody open for a 3.
Defensively the Rockets rank 4th in points per game and they held the Cavs to 104 in Cleveland. The Cavs took 81 shots to 90 for the Rockets and hit just 44% overall and 31% on 3’s. Nae'Quon Tomlin, who started that game, was 0-for-5 from deep and Ball was 2-for-8. Hopefully neither will take any 3’s in Houston.
The Rockets are solid across the board defensively. They don’t force a ton of turnovers (22nd) but they’re good on the defensive glass (10th). They’re just above average everywhere on the defensive end except in forcing turnovers.
Opponents don’t attack the rim much (7th fewest) but the Rockets rank 18th in shooting percentage at the rim so maybe teams should do more of that. The Cavs need to do what they do - dribble penetration leading to layups, floaters, lobs to the rim, or the kick-and-swing game resulting in an open 3-pointer. There are no glaring weaknesses to exploit in the Rockets' defense.
The Cavs will have Garland and Merrill this time around so the 3-point shooting and the dribble penetration should be better. In Cleveland 39 of their 81 shots were 3’s and the Cavs made just 12. This time they should attack the paint more and not have Ball and Tomlin jacking up 13 shots from beyond the arc.
Donovan Mitchell was held to 21 points and a -18 by the Rockets' long and athletic defenders led by Amen Thompson. Maybe Donovan should try to be the Gravity Man this game and draw the defense to him and then pass out of it. The best way to beat the Rockets is making 3’s while they are making 2’s.
You gotta make them pay when they sit in the paint on you, we couldn't make them pay. - Kenny after the first game
De’Andre Hunter was 8-for-8 on free throws in the first game while his teammates were 12-for-24. The 12 missed free throws and the 31% on 3’s cost them a win.
I know I say this every game, but all five players need to get on the defensive glass or we’re going to get beat. Boxing out will be huge and it’s going to take a village to get those rebounds against the best offensive rebounding team in league history.
Injury Report
CLEVELAND
Larry Nance Jr - OUT (calf)
Max Strus - OUT (foot)
HOUSTON
Alperen Sengun - QUESTIONABLE (calf)
Fred VanVleet - OUT (ACL)