The Cavaliers have an off day at home after beating the Suns before hosting the Denver Nuggets, or at least what’s left of them. The Nuggets have four starters out, including MVP Nikola Jokic. Between Jokic, Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson, and Christian Braun they average a combined 72 points, 26 rebounds, and 18 assists per game.
That was no problem in Toronto on Wednesday as the Nuggets beat the Raptors 106-103. The Raptors were 20-14 and had just beaten Orlando and Golden State. They were at full strength except for Jakob Poetl and playing at home, but still got beat by one starter and Denver’s bench.
The crazy thing is the Raptors took 100 shots to 80 for the Nuggets and still lost. The Raptors took 45 three-pointers and only made 12.
It would not be smart to take the Nuggets lightly. We’ve seen the Cavs get beat by other team’s bench units many times. It’s getting to the point where it’s almost expected, for me anyway. The Cavs routinely play down to the level of the competition while reserves who get a chance to start usually play like their careers depend on it.
I’m not going to cover the Nuggets’ season stats because without Jokic, Johnson, Gordon and Braun they’re not the same team. Against Toronto they used eight players, one of which, Jakob Valaciunas, is out against the Cavs.
Jamal Murray is the only healthy starter. He averages 25 points and 7 assists per game on 49% from the field and 45% on 3’s.
Valanciunas, 6’11”, had 17 points and 9 boards in 23 minutes before leaving with a calf problem. He did not return and is OUT for Friday’s game. That is a huge loss because their next tallest guy is 6’9” and he has only played 34 minutes all season.
Looking at the other starters against Toronto, Spencer Jones, 6’7”, played 38 minutes without a field goal. He is an undrafted rookie. Jalen Pickett, 6’2”, averages 3.5 ppg in 12 minutes. Peyton Watson, 6’8”, 200, had 24 points and 8 boards against Toronto. He averages 11 points in 27 minutes.
Coming off the bench in Toronto were DaRon Holmes, 6’9”, who has only played in four games this year, Tim Hardaway Jr, averaging 13 points in 30 minutes, and Bruce Brown, who averages 8 points in 25 minutes.
Obviously they beat Toronto with defense as the Nuggets scored only 106 points but won anyway. Toronto only got 12 points from their bench, which went 6-for-34.
The Nuggets started three guards, a forward, and Valanciunas against Toronto. Brown (6’4”), Hardaway (6’5”), and Holmes (6’9”) came off the bench. Holmes is the closest thing they’ve got to a center with Vala out. Zeke Nnaji is 6’10”, 240 but he did not play against Toronto even with Jokic and Vala out. The Raptors have been outscored by 35 points per 100 possessions in Nnaji's 128 minutes this year so I can see why he didn't get in. They may have no choice but to play him against the Cavs.
Looking at the Nuggets’ players on/off numbers, the four injured starters are the four highest on the team. Aaron Gordon is +20.0 points per 100 possessions, Jokic is +19.1, Braun is +15.4, and Johnson is +7.8. Of the available players, Murray and Watson are the only ones with positive numbers at +6.0 and +5.5.
The Nuggets have a player on the end of their bench named Hunter Tyson. He’s only played 13 minutes this year. With a name like that I think the Cavs should trade for him. Then put him in the game along with De’Andre Hunter and Jaylon Tyson just to mess with the announcers.
The Cavs just need to approach this game like any other and not be complacent or they will get beat just like the Raptors did. They should get the ball to Allen and Mobley as much as possible as they will have huge size advantages. The Nuggets’ players who are available are averaging a combined 1.7 blocks per game.
On defense they need to focus on Murray and make the others beat you. This version of the Nuggets is a small team that only got 9 offensive boards against Toronto while the Raptors got 17. The Cavs should take it to the hole and crash the offensive glass.
The Raptors lost because they missed 33 3-point shots. The Cavs cannot make that mistake. They need to get into the paint. All night long. The Cavs got a huge break in getting the Nuggets when they have four starters plus Vala out. The Cavs can't screw this up.
Injury Report
CLEVELAND
De'Andre Hunter - PROBABLE (illness)
Sam Merrill - QUESTIONABLE (ankle)
Dean Wade - QUESTIONABLE (knee)
Larry Nance Jr - OUT (calf)
Max Strus - OUT (foot)
DENVER
Jamal Murray - PROBABLE (ankle)
Julian Strawther - PROBABLE (illness)
Jonas Valanciunas - OUT (calf)
Nikola Jokic - OUT (knee)
Aaron Gordon - OUT (ankle)
Christian Braun - OUT (ankle)
Cam Johnson - OUT (knee)
Tamar Bates - OUT (foot)
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