On a two-game winning streak the Cavs go to Detroit for the second night of a back-to-back. The Pistons are also on a back-to-back, but they were at home last night. However, it’s a short flight and the Cavs’ game last night started at 6 p.m. so travel fatigue should not be a factor.
Both teams are 2-1. The Pistons beat the 0-3 Celtics last night 119-113 and they also beat the Rockets in Houston 115-111. They lost to the Bulls 115-111. The Pistons are averaging 115 ppg and allowing 113.
ESPN has a Basketball Power Index which ranks OKC 1st, the Cavs 2nd, the Knicks 3rd, and Detroit 14th. The Cavs are ranked 1st offensively with the Pistons 7th defensively. The Pistons are 13th offensively while the Cavs are 8th defensively. So ESPN thinks the Cavs will have the advantage at both ends of the court.
The Pistons have a big team; all five starters are between 6’6” and 6’10” and their top three subs are 6’5”, 6’8”, and 6’8”. Jaden Ivey is out and both Caris LeVert and Marcus Sasser are questionable.
The Athletic predicts the Pistons will finish in 5th place at 45-37. Last year they were 44-38. With a young, rapidly improving team I'm not sure I agree with only a 1-win improvement. Here is part of their preview:
The 30-win jump from the awfulness of 2023-24 to last season’s playoff run was amazing, but there may be a consolidation year before the Pistons can make another jump….it’s tough to replicate lightning in a bottle.
…let’s start with the positive: The Pistons’ best players are still really young. Cade Cunningham had a breakout fourth season and is only 24. Big man Jalen Duren, who is up for an extension, won’t turn 22 until November, and the same goes for uber-athletic defensive stopper Ausar Thompson. Those three, plus 2024 lottery pick Ron Holland II, are likely the core for whatever the Pistons will be going forward.
In the short term, the Pistons relied on some veteran help to drag them into the postseason a year ago, and several of those players are gone. Dennis Schröder and Tim Hardaway Jr. left for greener pastures, Fontecchio was traded, and sharpshooter Malik Beasley’s future is still up in the air. Also notable: Power forward Tobias Harris is 33 and on an expiring contract.
Fortunately, the Pistons had a solid offseason, bringing in Caris LeVert to offset the ballhandling deficit left by Schröder’s departure, and swapping Fontecchio for Duncan Robinson…
At some point, the Pistons will need a second star to emerge to push into the 50-win club and a higher seed in the East. Thompson and Holland are the best internal candidates, but offensive limitations may keep both from being true wingmen for Cunningham. The Pistons were just 16th on offense last season and melted down a bit on that end in the playoffs.
That’s where the Pistons may need to get aggressive:..Adding a high-scoring wing or forward to put next to the Cunningham-Duren-Thompson core is what would vault the Pistons to another level. It could be a very interesting trade deadline in Detroit….
The long view in Detroit is looking up, and in a toothless East, a finish in the top six should be the minimum bar for the upcoming season. But the Pistons still are probably one fairly sizable transaction from moving beyond that.
Toothless East? Maybe. The East is 3-6 against the West so far.
Lonzo Ball probably will not play for the Cavs as they said he will not play on back-to-back nights. That will be a problem as he had 11 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists in 23 minutes last night. Garland and Strus are out, of course, so the Cavs will be missing 3 of their top 7 players.
With three key pieces out and playing on the second night of a BTB on the road I’m not optimistic about this one. Tobias Harris, age 33, played 35 minutes last night so he may not be on top of his game. Harris had 18 points and 8 rebounds against the Celtics.
Duncan Robinson, another starter, is averaging 9.5 points on 38% from the field and 31% on 3’s. He’s not a good defender IIRC and he's off to a slow start offensively. Ausar Thompson is playing great with 17 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, and a 52.5% shooting percentage. The Pistons are outscoring opponents by 9.5 points per 100 possessions when Thompson is on the floor.
Cade Cunningham is their best point producer at 23 pts and 9 assists per game but he's shooting only 40% from the field and 32% on 3's.
The Celtics don’t have much firepower outside of Jaylen Brown, Payton Pritchard, and Derrick White, who combined for 77 points last night. Their other starters had 0 and 4 points, but the Celts still scored 113 against Detroit in their house. The Cavs should be able to score more than that as they are averaging 120.
With Ball out the Cavs will need Craig Porter Jr to step up. CPJ is 9-for-13 from the field and averaging 7.0 points in 12.3 minutes. The Pistons are tall and rangy across the board and the Cavs have some shorter players in Mitchell, Merrill, and CPJ.
It's interesting that after three games the Pistons' starters are getting beat but their bench has been outstanding. Their top players in terms of plus/minus per 100 possessions are Daniss Jenkins (+22.5), Isaiah Stewart (+14.5), Ron Holland II (+14.0), Ausar Thompson (+9.5), and Paul Reed (+8.2). Thompson is the only starter in the positive group.
The negative group consists of starters Jalen Duren (-6.9), Cade Cunningham (-8.0), Tobias Harris (-11.5), and Duncan Robinson (-11.8). This game may be decided on how well the Cavs' bench of CPJ, Wade, Nance, and Tyson can do against the Detroit bench which has been excellent so far.
Injury Report
CLEVELAND
Darius Garland - OUT (toe)
Max Strus - OUT (foot)
DETROIT
Caris LeVert - QUESTIONABLE (hamstring)
Marcus Sasser - QUESTIONABLE (hip)
Jaden Ivey - OUT (knee)