Winners of 7 of their last 8 games with the only loss coming to OKC the Cavs close out January with game 1 of a 5-game road trip, starting in the Valley of the Sun. The Phoenix Suns are 29-19 overall and 16-6 at home. They won last night against the Pistons 114-98 as Dillon Brooks had a career high 40 points. The Suns are 17-5 against teams under .500 and 12-14 against teams over .500.
The Suns will be playing on the second night of a back-to-back, however, both games are at home so there was no travel.
Both teams will be significantly impacted by injuries. The Cavs will be missing Garland and Mobley while the Suns will be missing their leading scorer in Devin Booker, who averages 25 points and 6 assists per game. The Suns only average 114 points per game, so losing Booker’s 25 plus another 12-14 points in assists is pretty impactful.
In the first two games Booker was out the Suns have scored 102 and 106 points against opponents who allow an average of 115 and 118 points. The Cavaliers have allowed an average of just 101.5 points in their last five games. The Suns got their average of 114 against Detroit last night but it took a career game from Brooks to get there as he doubled his 20-point average.
The Suns rank 23rd in scoring and that's with Booker playing 41 of 48 games. For the season they are 25th in points in the paint and 28th in attempts at the rim so they are definitely a team that leans heavily on the outside shot. They are 8th and 9th in mid-range and 3-point rate.
They are 13th in 3-point accuracy. They’re 23rd in turnovers per possession. Their strength offensively is offensive rebounding where they rank 6th. They had 19 offensive boards against the Cavs in Cleveland so that is something the Cavs need to improve on.
Jordan Goodwin, a 6’3” backup guard in his 5th season, led the way with 8 offensive rebounds and 15 total. The Cavs need to put a body on him. A guard getting 15 rebounds in 22 minutes is absurd. For the season he’s averaging 1.9 offensive rebounds in 22 minutes. Without his 15 rebounds that game is a Cavs blowout.
The Cavs beat the Suns in Cleveland a month ago 129-113. Booker had 32 points in 33 minutes. The Suns starters were -12 to -17. However, Garland and Mobley combined for 33 points and 11 assists and they are also out, so the benches will be more important this time around.
Last night the Suns' bench scored just 18 points in 93 minutes against Detroit. Brooks, Grayson Allen, and Gillespie accounted for 80 of the team’s 114 points and made 13 of their 16 threes. The Cavs need to stop those three and win the battle of the benches.
The Cavs outscored the Suns 56-36 in the paint. Last night the Pistons were getting tons of dunks and had 54 points in the paint. Jalen Duren was 10-for-11 and I think they were all dunks or layups. The Suns are awful at rim protection.
Even with Mobley out I expect the Suns will continue shooting from outside and crashing the offensive glass, looking to score on 3’s and second chance points. The key for the Cavs will be contesting 3’s to force misses and then beating the Suns to the long rebounds. Grayson and Gillespie will launch 3’s from well behind the arc and make them.
Defense is where the Suns are winning as they rank 5th in points allowed per game. No team forces more turnovers per possession and as a result they allow the 2nd fewest shots per game. They are 2nd in steals per possession and had 8 against the Cavs last month. They excel at stripping the ball in the paint.
The Suns are a relatively short team so they have to take chances and go for steals. Starting center Mark Williams is 7’1” but their forwards are Royce O’Neale (6’6”) and Dillon Brooks (6’7”). With Booker out their guards are Grayson Allen (6’3”), Collin Gillespie (6'1"), and Goodwin (6’3”). This creates a problem on the defensive glass where they rank 29th in defensive rebound percentage. The Cavs had 14 offensive rebounds in the first game.
Their top reserves are Jalen Green (6’4”) and Jamaree Bouyea (6’2”). Oso Ighodaro (6’11”) is the backup center. He was scoreless with one rebound in 21 minutes against the Cavs. Green is also questionable with a hamstring issue and was out last night. He has played in only four games this year. He was the 2nd overall pick in 2021, one pick before Evan Mobley.
The Suns lack of height is also a problem on defense as they rank 25th at defending the rim and 25th in block percentage. They excel at defending the 3-pointer, ranking 5th. So it’s a no-brainer that the Cavs should attack the rim relentlessly. Detroit was 6-for-29 on 3’s last night.
Donovan had 34 points and 7 assists against the Suns last month and with Garland and Mobley out he will have to continue to carry a big load. Goodwin will get physical and try to push him around.
Both these teams have taken a big hit offensively since they last played with the Suns losing Booker and the Cavs losing Garland and Mobley. I don’t expect another 129-116 game. Cleaningtheglass has the Suns 20th offensively and the Cavs 6th defensively over the last two weeks. The Cavs just held the Lakers to 99 so they should be able to hold the Suns below 100, especially without Booker and possibly Green.
Brooks was cooking on the mid-range jumper last night so the Cavs need to be prepared for that. If the Pistons could have held him to 25 instead of 40 it would have been anyone’s game.
The Suns are 16-6 at home and coming off an impressive 16-point win over Detroit. The Cavs are missing Garland and Mobley, but they were off yesterday and the Suns are missing their leading scorer. Should be a close one with less scoring than last time.
Injury Report
CLEVELAND
Max Strus - OUT (foot)
Darius Garland - OUT (toe)
Evan Mobley - OUT (calf)
Tristan Enaruna - OUT (G-League)
PHOENIX
Collin Gillespie - QUESTIONABLE (hand)
Jalen Green - OUT (hamstring)
Devin Booker - OUT (ankle)
