The Cavaliers return home to take on the Toronto Raptors, who won their opener but have since lost four straight to 3-1 Milwaukee, 2-3 Dallas, 4-0 San Antonio, and 2-2 Houston. The Raptors have played a fairly tough schedule and are probably better than their 1-4 record suggests. Anyone attending the game needs to remember to leave some candy on the front porch or come home to find your house egged. Or maybe not - eggs aren't as cheap as they used to be.
Sam Merrill is out for the Cavaliers while Jarrett Allen and Donovan Mitchell are game time decisions. With Strus and Garland also out the Cavs could be missing 5 of their top 9 players.
The Raptors are missing starting center Jakob Poeltl. Although Poeltl is only averaging 6.5 points and 5.3 rebounds in 23 minutes per game, his absence leaves them lacking in bulk up front and in the rebounding department.
From a Raptors fan site:
The Raptors have unfortunately been hampered by a severe lack of size and presence near the glass...this has been an issue even after Toronto’s offseason pursuit of Sandro Mamukelashvili, who certainly brings an offensive spark but is not quite a true backup center…
As a result, the team has taken a significant hit with Poeltl’s decline and the evident lack of suitable substitutes, now falling to a four-game losing streak. They have been out-rebounded by their last two opponents, San Antonio and Houston, by a wide margin.
The Spurs outrebounded the Raptors 44-20 while the Rockets were even more dominant at 53-22.
The Cavaliers' biggest problem so far has been controlling the defensive glass so facing a weak rebounding opponent may be just what the doctor ordered, especially if Allen is out. The Cavs actually rank 18th in defensive rebound percentage, which is average, but it seems worse, especially after the Celtics grabbed 18 offensive boards on Wednesday.
From The Athletic season preview, which predicts the Raptors will finish tied for 7th with 39 wins:
Toronto lacks both depth and cohesion, with shooting a particularly glaring concern (convincing Brandon Ingram that 3s are worth more than 2s could help). But the Raptors’ starting five is clearly more talented than that of their rivals for [the 7-10 seeds] (full-strength Philly excepted), and they have some outs for the bench to not be disastrous.
Let’s start with the core five, which is big and talented: Ingram, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl are no-doubt-about-it starters on nearly any roster but on paper don’t seem to complement one another. Working out the kinks between two ball-dominant forwards in Ingram and Barnes, especially with a non-shooting center in Poeltl and iffy spacing options at the other spots, is likely to be the key to making this offense hum…
As for the second unit, the Raptors are leaning heavily on recent draft picks to make some noise. Thus far, they mostly haven’t. Toronto’s bench is led by three recent first-round picks (Collin Murray-Boyles, Ja’Kobe Walter and Gradey Dick), and things mostly descend from there.
One prays the Raptors will stagger lineups so that one of the four perimeter starters is always on the court, as the second group has no shot creation whatsoever. However, keep an eye on big man Sandro Mamukelashvili, who has a chance to break out behind Poeltl and inject some life into a moribund bench. I’m also excited about Murray-Boyles’ defensive chops and remain a Jonathan Mogbo fan.
So far the Raptors have been scoring effectively as they rank 9th in points per game. Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram are both averaging 22 points per game followed by RJ Barrett at 19 and Immanuel Quickly at 15. They have some balanced scoring at four positions and their backup centers combine to average 18.4 ppg. They’re getting very little scoring from their bench.
The Raptors like the mid-range shot, ranking 5th in frequency and 9th in accuracy. They don’t take many 3’s (35% of their shot attempts) but they’re 6th in accuracy at 40.1%. The Raptors like to push and pass the ball, ranking 6th in pace and 4th in assists per possession.
They rank 28th in offensive rebound percentage and 23rd in defensive rebound percentage, so like the fan site said they’re getting killed on the glass at both ends. But they have four veteran shooters who are very good; Barnes, Ingram, and Barrett are all shooting 54-58% from the field. Barnes is at 55% on 3’s and Ingram 46%. Maybe somebody did explain to him that a 3 is worth more than a 2.
Defense is where the Raptors fall down as they rank 28th in scoring at 128 ppg. What is amazing is the Raptors are 3rd lowest in opponents’ field goal attempts per game but they still rank 28th in scoring defense. They’re 29th in opponents points in the paint and 2-point shooting percentage. With Poeltl out they don’t have a lot of rim protection as their backup centers are 6’9” and 6’7”.
The Raptors also foul a lot as they are 28th in opponents’ free throw attempts per game. Where they are strong defensively is forcing turnovers where they rank 2nd. It appears they know they are not good at protecting the rim and grabbing defensive boards so they gamble a lot and go for steals. They are 27th in blocked shot percentage.
Raptors games tend to be fairly high scoring as they have good shooters and poor defenders. Like The Athletic said, their starters are “big and talented.”
The Cavs are the more talented team but if they are missing Garland, Mitchell, Merrill, Strus, and Allen they don’t have a lot left. We could see Mobley using his height advantage in the low post to take a lot of shots. Hopefully Mitchell and Allen can go but if not this one is anybody’s game. The Raptors last their last two games by 18 points each to San Antonio and Houston while getting killed on the glass.
Craig Porter Jr is off to a good start shooting 57% overall and 45.5% on 3's. If Mitchell is out this is his chance to step up and earn more minutes. Jaylon Tyson is averaging 54% overall and 40% on 3's although on low shooting volume. Larry Nance is shooting 46% and 44%. This might be a game where we really need to bench to play well.
Lonzo Ball is off to a horrible start, shooting 26% from the field and 22% on 3's. He's forcing up long 3's that aren't there. De'Andre Hunter is hitting just 37% and 27%. Those two need to get going offensively. Hunter had a knee contusion which may still be affecting his shooting.
Injury Report
CLEVELAND
Jarrett Allen - QUESTIONABLE (finger)
Donovan Mitchell - QUESTIONABLE (hamstring)
Sam Merrill - OUT (hip)
Darius Garland - OUT (toe)
Max Strus - OUT (foot)
TORONTO
Jakob Poeltl - OUT (back)