Well, that didn’t last long. Just when the Cavaliers were fully healthy except for Max Strus the injuries hit. James Harden broke his finger against the Knicks then four players were injured in the Bucks’ game.
The walking wounded head to Detroit for their 6th game in 9 days. Donovan Mitchell is out with a groin injury while James Harden and Keon Ellis are questionable with fractured fingers on their non-shooting hands. Dennis Schroder and Dean Wade are questionable with ankle sprains. We could be missing our top two point guards.
Or not. According to Shams Charania, Harden plans on playing through his fractured right thumb. I'm sure opponents will overplay him to the left even more than usual.
At least Allen and Mobley should be available. After that we have Harden, Tyson, Merrill, and who knows. This should be a pretty easy win for the Pistons, who are missing only backup center Isaiah Stewart who is still suspended after the brawl against Charlotte.
The Pistons are 43-14 and have won 18 of 23. This will be 3rd meeting between these teams. The series is tied 1-1. The last game will be Tuesday in Cleveland.
The Pistons are characterized by a smothering defense that is 4th in points allowed per game. They rank 1st in opponents’ effective field goal percentage and field goal attempts per game. They are 1st in steals per possession, forced turnovers per possession, and blocks per possession. They are 3rd defending 2-point shots and 5th defending 3’s. They are 4th in rim defense and 3rd in points allowed in the paint.
Without Mitchell it’s going to be very tough to score on Detroit. Donovan is averaging 32.5 points per game against the Pistons in the first two games. It looks like CPJ may get some significant minutes in relief of Harden.
Offensively the Pistons are 8th in scoring. They are average shooters but rank 3rd in points in the paint, 2nd in fast break points, and 3rd in offensive rebound percentage. If Wade is out that will hurt the Cavs’ defensive rebounding against one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league.
The Pistons are not a 3-point team as they rank 27th in frequency and 22nd in accuracy. They are 3rd in frequency at the rim so it’s clear what they want to do offensively. They’re 16th in shooting percentage at the rim but they follow up those missed layups with offensive rebounds.
Stewart being out should not be a problem as they have Paul Reed, who is averaging nearly 15 points per game in Stewart’s absence, shooting 61.5% from the field.
All-Star PG Cade Cunningham leads the Pistons with 25 points and 10 assists per game on 46% from the field and 34% on 3’s. All-Star center Jalen Duren averages 18 points and 11 boards on 64% from the field. Tobias Harris and Duncan Robinson average 13 ppg and defenisve stopper Ausar Thompson averages 10.
With Stewart suspended their leading bench scorers are Ronald Holland II, Daniss Jenkins, and Caris LeVert at 8 points per game each, not counting Reed who is averaging 15 points in 24 minutes since Stewart was suspended.
Cleaningtheglass ranks the Pistons 2nd defensively and 10th offensively in non-garbage time.
One key to the Pistons’ success this year is that four of their starters have started 47 games or more out of the 57 they’ve played. The only one who hasn’t is Tobias Harris with 41 starts. The Cavaliers have only three players with more than 36 starts. The Cavs have used 27 different starting lineups and this will probably be their 28th.
Protecting the ball will be huge if the Cavs want to avoid getting blown out. No team gets more steals and forces more turnovers than the Pistons, and a lot of those fast break points come off turnovers. They are also first in block percentage so most teams shoot a lot of 3’s against them, which also leads to fast breaks off long rebounds.
The Pistons are long as Duren is 6’10”, Harris is 6’8”, Robinson and Thompson are 6’7”, and Cade is 6’6”. Off the bench Reed is 6’9”, Holland 6’8”, and LeVert is listed at 6’7”. If Craig Porter Jr gets a lot of minutes at point guard he’s going to have to be very careful with his passes.
The Pistons lead the league in block percentage so teams avoid attacking the rim against them. I think the Cavs are going to have to do that as I don’t see them hitting a high percentage of 3’s. The Pistons are 5th best in forcing missed 3’s. Allen and Mobley should be aggressive and try to score inside, especially when Duren is down and 6'9", 210-pound Paul Reed is at center. Getting Duren in foul trouble would be really helpful.
The other key for the Cavs is not allowing a shit ton of offensive rebounds against the league’s 3rd best offensive rebounding team. In the first two games the Pistons had 16 and 14 offensive boards. If the Cavs are going to be competitive they need to minimize turnovers, minimize offensive rebounds by the Pistons, and get back in transition defense. And find a way to score without Donovan against the league's second best defense.
Injury Report
CLEVELAND
Max Strus - OUT (foot)
Donovan Mitchell - OUT (hamstring)
James Harden - QUESTIONABLE (thumb)
Keon Ellis - QUESTIONABLE (finger)
Dean Wade - QUESTIONABLE (ankle)
Dennis Schroder - QUESTIONABLE (ankle)
DETROIT
none