After a day off the Cavs end a brutal stretch of schedule with a rematch against the Pistons, who they lost to in OT on Friday despite not having Mitchell, Harden, Wade, and Ellis. The NBA admitted the refs blew three calls that went against the Cavs in the last minute of regulation as well as one that went against Detroit. Four blown calls in two minutes with the game on the line. That’s the modern NBA.
After this game the Cavs have four days off. Harden and Ellis have returned, Mitchell is out and Wade is questionable.
Isaiah Stewart was suspended for the game last week but unfortunately the suspension is up and that particular thug is back. So the Cavs get Harden and Ellis back and the Pistons get Stewart, who is averaging 10 points and 5 rebounds in 23 minutes. Both teams will be better but possibly more so Cleveland. The Cavs will have home court advantage this time.
According to reports the Cavs were frustrated after the OT loss in Detroit when they choked the game away with turnovers, missed free throws, and a stupid foul on a heave from the back court with the Pistons down 3 and under 5 seconds to go. The Cavs had to screw up quite a bit in a very short time to lose that game and they managed to do it, with help from the refs. I expect they will come out looking to set things right this game.
It won’t be easy because the Pistons are 45-14 for a reason. They’ve won 20 of 25. The Pistons have no injuries which is unusual this late in the season, but that’s another reason for their league best record.
The Pistons are 2nd in defensive rating in non-garbage time and 11th in offensive rating. They rank 1st in opponents’ effective field goal percentage, 1st in steals per possession, 1st in forced turnovers per possession, and 1st in blocks per possession. They are 4th in rim defense and 3rd in points allowed in the paint. They're excellent defending the 3 as well, ranking 5th.
Before the last game I said that without Mitchell it’s going to be very tough to score on Detroit. Donovan averaged 32.5 points per game against the Pistons in the first two games. But even without him and Harden the Cavs got 114 in regulation last week, which is more than the Pistons’ 109 average.
Offensively the Pistons rank 3rd in points in the paint, 2nd in fast break points, and 2nd in offensive rebound percentage. If Wade is out that will hurt the Cavs’ defensive rebounding against one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league.
Last week the Pistons had 21 offensive rebounds against the Cavs with Jalen Duren leading with 7. Allen and Mobley were not strong enough to prevent him from consistently getting position on the offensive glass. Eight Pistons had offensive rebounds and that was with Stewart out.
The Pistons are not a 3-point team as they rank 28th in frequency and 26th in accuracy. Last week they were 6-for-27 against the Cavs. They are 3rd in frequency at the rim so it’s clear what they want to do offensively. They’re 14th in shooting percentage at the rim but they follow up those missed layups with offensive rebounds.
Cade Cunningham leads the Pistons with 25 points and 10 assists per game while Jalen Duren averages 18 points and 11 boards on 64% from the field. Tobias Harris and Duncan Robinson average 13 ppg and defensive stoppers Ausar Thompson and Isaiah Stewart average 10.
The keys for the Cavs will be to do a better job on the defensive glass and hold the Pistons to well under 21 offensive rebounds this time. The Cavs also need to protect the ball and limit turnovers. In three games against the Pistons they’re averaging almost 18 turnovers per game.
They have to understand that the Pistons are the best team in the NBA at forcing turnovers and adjust their game accordingly, meaning don’t force passes into tight windows and don’t be careless or sloppy with the ball.
Dennis Schroder had 8 turnovers in 38 minutes last week in Detroit. He won’t get nearly that many minutes with Harden back but he still needs to make better decisions.
Hopefully being at home the referees will only screw us a little this time rather than a lot.
On Friday the Cavs had the Pistons beat on their home court despite not having Mitchell, Harden, Wade, and Ellis. With Harden and Ellis back and the game being played in Cleveland the Cavs should be able to get over the hump this time if they play the same game only close it out better.
Injury Report
CLEVELAND
Max Strus - OUT (foot)
Donovan Mitchell - OUT (hamstring)
Dean Wade - QUESTIONABLE (ankle)
DETROIT
none