The short-handed Cavs stay home after the loss to Toronto and host the 3-3 Atlanta Hawks. Mitchell, Allen, and Merrill are listed as game time decisions as of Saturday evening. For the Hawks Trae Young is out.
The Hawks have defeated Indy (0-5), Brooklyn (0-5), and Orlando (2-4). They lost to Toronto (2-4), OKC (6-0) and Chicago (5-0). The win over Indy came with Mathurin, Nembhard, Toppin, and McConnell out.
From SI.com:
The biggest thing going against the Hawks early in the season has been their health. Starters like Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson, Kristaps Porzingis, and most recently, Trae Young, have all missed time with injuries this season.
From a fan site:
Atlanta has gotten off to a slow start after making a splash with their moves in the offseason. The Hawks have primarily struggled on both ends of the floor and on the glass. On the positive side, they don’t turn the ball over frequently and do a good job of creating turnovers. While Onyeka Okungwu, Jalen Johnson, and Kristaps Porzingis have thrived in the early going, Dyson Daniels and Zaccharie Risacher have struggled.
From The Athletic season preview which predicts a 49-33 record and a tie for 3rd in the East:
Optimism reigns in Atlanta after a hugely successful offseason…
By turning a late first-round pick and the unwanted contracts of Terance Mann and Georges Niang into Porziņģis, the Hawks immediately solved their biggest dilemma: How to fill in the center position in the wake of Clint Capela’s decline. Porziņģis won’t play 82 games, and might not even come close, but he can give Atlanta 50-60 nights of All-Star-level play and add a floor-spacing big man the likes of which Trae Young has never had next to him.
Atlanta also ironed out its playmaking in the non-Young minutes (it hopes) by adding Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Luke Kennard to the backcourt; the wildly underrated Jalen Johnson is also back after missing the second half of last season. Onyeka Okongwu was taxed as a starter but will be one of the best “third bigs” in the league...First-round pick Asa Newell rounds out the depth, with serviceable deep reserves N’Faly Dante and Mo Gueye around for insurance.
If there’s a question mark, it’s right in the middle of the rotation at small forward. Zaccharie Risacher, the top pick in the 2024 draft, will try to build on an uneven rookie year on a team where expectations are high enough that “doing some interesting things” won’t be enough…6’8” defensive menace Dyson Daniels can slide over from the backcourt...
Atlanta’s moves don’t quite make it a contender but pretty solidly put the Hawks in the next tier as a high-40s win candidate in the ramshackle East.
The "ramshackle East"?
From the NBA.com preview:
As Atlanta looks to avoid a fifth consecutive Play-In appearance, the Hawks revamped their roster in the offseason with some key additions to join their young and emerging talents.
After leading the league in assists last season, Trae Young has some new teammates to drop dimes to after the Hawks acquired Kristaps Porziņģis from Boston, Nickeil Alexander-Walker from Minnesota and signed sharpshooter Luke Kennard this summer.
That new trio joins a core that features last season’s steals leader and Kia Most Improved Player Dyson Daniels, last year’s No. 1 overall draft pick and Kia Rookie of the Year runner-up Zaccharie Risacher, and a healthy Jalen Johnson, whose breakout season was cut short by a season-ending shoulder injury. The offense will still run through Young, who led the NBA in assists with a career-high 11.6 per game last season while earning his fourth All-Star nod.
Individually after six games Jalen Johnson has a line of 21/8/5 on 58% from the floor but just 9% on 3’s. However, the Hawks are getting outscored by nearly 25 points per 100 possessions when he is on the floor.
Porzingis has a slash line of 19/6/3 on 51% overall and 44% from deep. He’s played in 4 games. Walker-Alexander is at 17/3/3 and Onyeka Okongwu comes off the bench to average 15 pts and 9 rebounds. Daniels is a great defender but he’s only averaging 8 ppg in 31 minutes on 40% and 33%. Risacher, the 1st overall pick in 2024, is averaging 10 pts and 2 rebounds on 40% from the floor. He’s only playing 23 minutes per game.
Trae Young is averaging 18 pts and 8 assists on low shooting percentages so I don’t know how much they will miss him against the Cavs.
The Hawks have been average statistically, ranking 18th in points per game and 18th in opponents’ points per game. What they do well offensively is avoid turnovers (3rd fewest per play) and score in the paint (2nd most PIP per game). The Hawks rank 4th in shots per game at the rim and 23rd in 3-point attempts per game, so they take it to the hole. They rank only 13th in drives per game so it appears they like to post up, probably with Porzingis and Okongwu.
Even though the Hawks take a lot of shots at the rim they are just 15th in success rate.
The Hawks are 21st in offensive rebound percentage so that should be good for the Cavs who have been outrebounded in all but one game this year. The Hawks are 27th in second chance points per miss.
The key for the Cavs defensively is to protect the rim. The Hawks are 24th in 3-point rate and 20th in 3-point accuracy so shooting from deep is not something they do a lot or do particularly well. However, the Cavs have to be aware of Porzingis (43.5%) and some guys off the bench; Vit Krejci (44%), Luke Kennard (41%), and Asa Newell (57%). We saw what Jamison Battle of Toronto did off the bench on Friday - 20 points on 6-for-6 from deep in a 11-point Raptor win. Atlanta has some guys who can come off the bench and destroy you on 3’s if you’re not aware.
The Cavs have a history of allowing players nobody is familiar with to come off the bench and torch them. Battle is the latest example.
Defensively the Hawks defend the 3 really well. They are 4th best at 31.4%. Their problem is defense in the paint where they rank 25th in PIP per game and 26th in opponents’ 2-point shooting percentage. Where they are really vulnerable is on the offensive glass as they are second worst in the NBA at defensive rebound percentage. I’m not sure why as Porzingis is 7’2”, Okongwu 6’10” and their starting forwards are both 6’8”.
Offensively the Cavs should not force up too many 3’s as the Hawks have tremendous length on the perimeter with Daniels (6’7”), Johnson, Krejci, and Risacher (all 6’8”) patrolling the line. Opponents are only making 31% from deep on them.
The Cavs are second in the NBA in frequency of 3-point shots at just over 50%. They're going to have to get away from that a little if they want to beat the Hawks. After the Toronto game Kenny said it's hurting him to see how seldom the Cavs drive (they rank 27th in drives per game). Against the Hawks they need to drive a lot more than they have been, IMO.
This game could come down to whether Mitchell, Merrill, and Allen can play. Without those three, plus Garland and Strus, the Cavs could not beat 1-4 Toronto at home.
Injury Report
CLEVELAND
Jarrett Allen - QUESTIONABLE (finger)
Donovan Mitchell - QUESTIONABLE (hamstring)
Sam Merrill - QUESTIONABLE (hip)
Darius Garland - OUT (toe)
Max Strus - OUT (foot)
ATLANTA
Trae Young - OUT (knee)