Winners of 11 of their last 12 with the only loss coming against the Celtics, the Cavaliers escape the northern Ohio cold and head to sunny Orlando. The paths of these franchises have gone in opposite directions since the Cavs emerged victorious from a seven-game bloodbath last spring. The Magic are not having the season they were hoping for. They are 29-30 overall and 7-14 in their last 21. They have been good at home (18-11), but not so great against teams .500 and over (8-20).
Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero missed 20 and 34 games, respectively, which obviously impacted them in a huge way. Jalen Suggs has been out since Jan. 25 and is out for this game. Darius Garland is listed as a game time decision. The Magic are 5-7 since Suggs went down with a quadricep problem.
Backup power forward and unanimous NBA All-Goon selection Moe Wagner had knee surgery and is out for the year. What a shame.
The Magic are outstanding defensively, ranking 2nd in scoring defense. Unfortunately for them, they can’t shoot worth a lick, ranking last in scoring. They play very deliberately, ranking 29th in pace and in shot attempts per game. They are also 29th in effective field goal percentage and last in 3-point percentage. It adds up to an average of 104.2 points per game, last in the Association. There is nothing that they do offensively that is above league average; at least nothing significant. They are the league bricklayers.
Defensively they are excellent at forcing turnovers, ranking 3rd in that category. They are just OK at forcing missed shots, ranking 16th in effective field goal percentage. But the combination of playing slow and forcing a lot of turnovers results in their opponents averaging fewer shots per game than any team in the league. The Magic also lead the NBA in block percentage and defensive rebound percentage, further limiting shots.
The interesting statistic to me is that Magic opponents only take 38% of their shots from 3-point range, which is the lowest in the league. But the Magic rank 22nd in opponents’ 3-point percentage. If Orlando is well below average at defending 3-points shots, why do their opponents take so few? The Magic are only defending 30.6 three-point attempts per game. My guess is they use their length to deter 3-point shots, depending on their shot blockers to defend the rim against any blow-bys.
The Magic lead the NBA in defensive rebound percentage and also lead the league with only 11 second chance points allowed per game. They grab 78% of missed shots on the defensive glass.
However, Memphis gets the defensive rebound on 74% of missed shots and the Cavs abused them for 22 offensive rebounds Sunday, so let’s see if they come close to that against the Magic.
Speaking of rebounds, did anybody else notice Isaac Okoro attacking the glass with a purpose on Sunday? He had 4 rebounds in 19 minutes. For his career he’s averaging 2.8 in 27 minutes. I think the signing of Javonte Green may have lit a fire under him.
As a team Orlando is only making 30.5% of their 3-point attempts so the key is to sag on defense and let them bomb away from outside if they want. They rank 10th in the league in frequency of shots at the rim, so that is what they prefer to do. The Cavs are best in the NBA at defending the rim so they match up well against bad 3-point teams that like to score in the paint.
Franz Wagner leads the Magic in scoring at 25 ppg with 6 rebounds and 5 assists. He’s shooting 47% from the field but his 3-point shot is off (31%). He’s at 29% in February.
His partner in crime Paolo Banchero has a line of 23/7/5 on 42% overall and 30% on 3’s. He’s shooting 26% on 3’s in February and is 5-for-20 in his last three games.
Jalen Suggs is averaging 16 points but he’s out. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is averaging 8.6 points on just 41% overall and 31% on 3’s. Center Wendall Carter Jr rounds out the starting five at 8.8 point and 7.3 rebounds. None of their backups average more than 9 points.
The Magic have a lot of length as Carter, Isaac, Banchero, Wagner, and Goga Bitadze are 6’10”, Tristan da Silva is 6’8”, and backup PG Anthony Black is 6’7”. But the Cavs just played Memphis which had Edey at 7’4”, Aldama at 7’0”, Jackson at 6’10”, and Clarke and Wells at 6’8” and they dominated the glass.
These teams played way back on Nov. 1 in Cleveland with the Cavs winning 120-109. Suggs was the star for Orlando with 28 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists, so his absence will be a big loss, especially since they’re also missing Moe Wagner, who chipped in 14 points. Also, the Cavs did not have Strus and Hunter for that game although they did have LeVert and Niang. Banchero was out for the Magic.
Looking at the on/off numbers for the Magic, Franz Wagner has been their most impactful player as they are 14.8 points better when he’s on the floor. Goga Bitadze is next at +9.2 and Suggs is third at +3.1. Banchero is -6.8, worst among the rotation players. Banchero ranks in the 99th percentile in usage rate (ball hog) but in the 13th percentile in points per shot attempt.
With all those long arms the Magic rank 5th in steals per possession, so the Cavs need to be careful with their passes, especially the shorter guys like Garland if he plays. The Magic lead the NBA in blocked shot percentage so floaters over layups are in order. I still say shooting 3's is the way to go, but the Cavs are on the road and they were really off Sunday against Memphis.
This could be a low scoring affair as the Magic have played well at home. But without both Suggs and Moe Wagner it’s going to be tough to beat the Cavs, who are on a roll and have picked up De’Andre Hunter to help them deal with teams like Orlando who have a bunch of 6’10” guys. The Cavs are streaking and the Magic are floundering, but they play very well at home and they are huge and physical even if they don’t shoot well.
After this one the Cavs have two days off before playing Boston on Friday, so no need to conserve minutes if it's close.
Injury Report
CLEVELAND
Darius Garland - QUESTIONABLE (hip)
ORLANDO
Jalen Suggs - OUT (quad)
Moe Wagner - OUT (knee)
https://realcavsfans.com/index.php?...58-cavs-magic-feb-25-2025-7-30-p-m-tnt.53237/