The Cavs have won eight in a row, all by double digits, with an average margin of victory of 18 points. They are 9-0 against the West. This will be their first game against Dallas. They play them again in Cleveland in a month; hopefully Luka will still be out.
The Mavericks were 19-10 going into the Christmas day game where Doncic was injured. Since then they are 1-4 including losses to Portland (11-21) and Sacramento (15-19). This is not surprising because Doncic leads the Mavs in scoring, rebounding, assists, and steals.
According to The Athletic the Mavs are +9.9 in Doncic’s 785 minutes on the court and +1.8 in his 804 minutes off the court…
So far this season, the Mavericks are 13-9 when their best player suits up. But when he’s been out, they actually have a winning record. Dallas is 7-4 when he’s missed games this season.
A big part of surviving the non-Dončić minutes and games is having Kyrie Irving in the mix...the Mavericks have a plus-39 point differential with him on the court [in the games Doncic missed]. It’s not just Irving, though. Spencer Dinwiddie has scored in double figures in nine of those 11 missed games and cleared 20 points a couple times. Throw in Klay Thompson and Quentin Grimes, and the Mavs have the depth to handle Dončić being out.
Well, I don't know about that. Now they’re 7-5 without him but 1-4 since the latest injury. I’m skeptical that the Mavs can keep winning with Doncic out when they’re 8 points worse per game. Maybe they won without him early in the season, but I haven’t seen it the last week. You just don’t replace 28 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists per game with 31-year-old Spencer Dinwiddie, who is averaging 9.3 points, 2 rebounds, 3 assists, and is shooting only 38% from the field and 34% on 3’s.
True, they didn’t have starting power forward P.J. Washington against Portland or Irving against Sacramento. Maybe with all of their guys except Doncic they can beat teams like those. But the Cavs had two days rest and will be hungry to finish up this trip undefeated. Hopefully they won’t come in complacent and looking forward to getting home. They need to play with “appropriate fear” as Kenny put it.
Also, P.J. Washington had to leave the Jan. 1 game against Houston with a knee strain. He did not return. He is listed as questionable. Washington averages 12.8 points and 7.5 rebounds on 45% overall and 40% on 3’s. His backup is Maxi Kleber, averaging 2.3 ppg on 36% and 25%. Kleber is also questionable and their third power forward, Naji Marshall, is serving a suspension. Dallas might be without all their power forwards Friday night.
I’m not going into the Mavs’ season statistics because those numbers were compiled with Doncic on the floor for 36 minutes per game. They are a very different team without him. For example, the Mavs average 116.6 ppg this year. But in the last five games without Doncic they scored 98-100 four times and 122 points against the hapless Trailblazers with Kyrie going off for 46. They still lost that game with Kleber starting and scoring 0 points in 33 minutes.
If Washington can’t recover from his knee strain in 48 hours I think the Mavs have no chance without him and Doncic.
As it stands the starters are:
P.J. Washington, PF, 6’6”, 230, 12.8 ppg
Dereck Lively, C, 7’1”, 8.7 pts, 7.8 rebounds in 24 mins
Kyrie Irving, PG, 6’2”, age 32, 24.6 pts on 49% overall and 44.5% on 3’s
Spencer Dinwiddie, SF, 6’5”, age 31, 9.3 pts on 38%
Klay Thompson, SG, age 34, 6’5”, 14.1 pts on 42% overall and 38% on 3’s
Daniel Gafford comes off the bench at center for 21 minutes and averages 12.1 pts and 6.2 rebounds. Nobody else averages more than 9.3 points off the bench. The Mavs are better offensively with Gafford but better defensively with Lively. They split the minutes at center.
Klay Thompson’s minutes have declined from 33 to 28 over the last two years and his scoring has declined from 22 to 14 points per game. His field goal percentage is the lowest of his career at 42.0%. His 3-point percentage is a little down but still respectable at 38.4%.
Kyrie will be 33 in March but most of his numbers are above his career averages, including minutes, shooting percentage, 3-point percentage, scoring, and rebounding. He’s playing 35.6 minutes per game and is playing some of the best ball of his career.
The battle between him and Garland and Mitchell will be fun to watch. He has games of 39 and 46 points in the last nine days, but also games of 16 and 20. With Doncic out Kyrie takes over the scoring responsibility as Thompson can only do so much at age 34.
With three players 31 or over in their starting lineup the Mavs will be vulnerable to the younger Cavaliers coming at them with waves of fresh legs. Their two younger starters, Lively and Washington, are not shot creators although their shooting percentages are good. Between the two of them they average 15 shots per game.
Bottom line is the Mavericks are 1-4 since Doncic went down, although a couple of those losses were without either Kyrie or P.J. Washington. I don’t think the Mavs have a bad starting lineup IF they can put Kyrie, Klay, Dinwiddie, Washington, and Lively on the floor at the same time. But that’s an older team and their bench is not impressive. And that starting lineup doesn’t match up favorably with Allen, Mobley, Mitchell, Garland, and Strus, especially with two days off.
Injury Report
CLEVELAND
Isaac Okoro - OUT (shoulder)
Luke Travers - OUT (ankle)
Sam Merrill - QUESTIONABLE (ankle)
DALLAS
Luka Doncic - OUT (calf)
Dante Exum - OUT (wrist)
PJ Washington - QUESTIONABLE (knee)
Maxi Kleber - QUESTIONABLE (oblique)