The Blazers are 32-40 overall and have gone from bad to great to average. They started 13-28, then went 10-1, and since then are 9-11. They won four in a row before the Celtics dominated them Sunday without Jaylen Brown, Jrue Holiday, and Kristaps Porzingis. Three starters out and the Celtics buried them 129-116, making 23 of 50 from deep.
The Blazers are 20-17 at home and 12-27 against teams .500 and over. Their personnel is average at best. These teams played in Cleveland on March 2 with the Cavs winning in OT 133-129. The Cavs were without Mitchell while the Blazers had the same lineup they’ll have this game. Deni Avdija went nuts with a line of 30/12/10 and Toumani Camara had 19 points and was a +10. Deandre Hunter started for the Cavs and scored 32.
The Blazers are average defensively and below average offensively, ranking 22nd in points per game. Starting center Deandre Ayton is out; he averages 14 points and 10 rebounds. So is backup center Robert Williams III. The current starter is 7’2”, 280-pound Donovan Clingan, who started against us three weeks ago but was pulled after 11 minutes with a -10. Clingan is a rookie, picked #7 overall. He’s very big but very slow.
PG Anfernee Simons leads the team in scoring at 19.6 ppg on 43% from the field and 37% on 3’s. He’s picked up the pace in March, averaging 25 ppg. SG Shaedon Sharpe averages 17.5 but shoots just 31% from deep. SF Deni Avdija averages 16 points and 7 rebounds but had a huge night against us as noted. He’s averaging 24 points and 10 rebounds per game in March. SF Jerami Grant averages 14.4 points but he may be out for this game. He’s only shooting 37% so they’re better off without him.
The Blazers have been better offensively of late; in March they are averaging 114.5 ppg against their season average of 110.8. Simons and Avdija have upped their scoring averages in March by 6 and 8 points.
The Blazers love to attack the rim; only one other NBA team takes a higher percentage of shots at the rim. However, they’re 26th in accuracy at the rim so maybe they should try more jump shots. The Cavs lead the NBA in rim defense so this seems like a good matchup for the Cavs - the league’s best rim defense against a team that ranks 26th in making shots at the rim and takes more than almost anyone.
Portland averages 113 ppg at home versus 108 on the road and their scoring is up in March so I expect they will be pretty good offensively. They got 116 against the Celtics on Sunday.
The Blazers are just 24th in effective field goal percentage and they are 29th in turnovers, so they miss a lot of shots and turn the ball over a ton. They’re just 25th in 3-point percentage and 27th in assists per possession.
The only area where they stand out offensively is offensive rebounding where they rank 3rd. However, their 1st and 4th leading offensive rebounders are out. That being said, Clingan is averaging the same number of offensive boards as Ayton in 40% fewer minutes, so the Cavs need to figure out how to keep his 280 pounds off the offensive glass. The Cavs have been vulnerable to extremely large centers who can simply push their way into prime rebounding position.
On the other hand, Clingan only lasted 11 minutes in the first game so we’ll see if Tuesday is any different.
The keys for the Cavs defensively are to do a better job on Avdija, force a lot of turnovers against the team that ranks 29th, and control the defensive glass.
The Blazers rank 16th in scoring defense, although without Ayton and Williams they may not be that good. The Celtics shredded them Sunday. The Blazers rank 28th in fast break points allowed, obviously because of all the turnovers they give up. They are 9th in forcing turnovers so the Cavs need to protect the ball and be aware of Blazers jumping the passing lanes.
The Blazers rank 28th in defensive rebound percentage so the Cavs should be able to get a lot of offensive boards and second chance points. The Cavs only had 13 offensive boards in the first game, however, in 53 minutes. Ayton leads the team in defensive rebounds and Williams is 4th so with both of them out the Blazers may be the worst defensive rebounding team in the league.
The Cavs need Donovan Mitchell to find his 3-point stroke as he’s missed a mind boggling 48 out of his last 55 attempts. That’s Tristan Thompson territory. But with Ayton and Williams out the Cavs should be able to get to the rim and score.
The Blazers are going small at the moment. Clingan started against Boston but played just 20 minutes, scoring 4 points with one rebound. The game looks too fast for him. Duop Reath, a 6’9” forward, came in for him for 17 minutes. He’s averaging 4 points in 9 minutes. The other 11 minutes they went with the 6’9” Avdija at center.
Mobley and Allen should be able to feast inside against a team that’s down to it’s 3rd center, who is a rookie. But that’s what I thought against Phoenix and we saw how that worked out. Third string rookie Oso Ighodaro was a +15 in 45 minutes and outplayed Jarrett Allen, who only played 22 minutes.
The Blazers are in 12th place, 2.5 games out of 10th place and that final play-in spot, so every game is huge if they hope to pass Phoenix and Dallas and sneak in. They are not a good team and have been average recently, plus being down their top two centers doesn’t help, and possibly Jerami Grant as well. On paper this should be a Cavs win. But on this trip the Cavs have been playing well below their standards and even against a Jazz team without Collins and Markkanen they were only up 6 at halftime after going an astonishing 3-for-25 from deep in the first half.
Hopefully getting a few hours extra rest by playing Sunday afternoon instead of evening will mean fresher legs and 3-point shots that find the net instead of banging off the front of the rim.
Injury Report
CLEVELAND
Donovan Mitchell - OUT (rest)
Jaylon Tyson - QUESTIONABLE (knee)
PORTLAND
Robert Williams - OUT (knee)
DeAndre Ayton - OUT (calf)
Sidy Cissoko - QUESTIONABLE (ankle)
Jerami Grant - QUESTIONABLE (knee)
Dalano Blanton - QUESTIONABLE (illness)