Winners of four straight, all by 19 points or more, the Cavs stay home to take on the Boston Celtics, who are 5.5 games behind the Cavs in second place. The Celtics have been better on the road this year (19-6) than at home (16-9). They have won 9 of their last 15 games.
This will be the third of four meetings between these teams. The series is tied 1-1 with the Cavs winning at home by 4 points and losing in Boston by 3. Both games were in late November/early December so it’s been quite a while. The rosters, however, have not changed.
In the loss in Boston the Cavs were without Okoro, LeVert, and Strus - all of their small forwards except for Jaylon Tyson. Sam Merrill started and was a -10 in 19 minutes. Kristaps Porzingis was out for Boston.
In the Cavs’ win in Cleveland the Celtics were missing Jaylen Brown and Derrick White while the Cavs were missing Max Strus. Jayson Tatum scored 33 points in each game.
Boston has no injuries and will be at full strength assuming they don’t trade Tatum to the Lakers for LeBron a few hours before the game. The Cavs will be missing Wade and Okoro. The game will be on TNT at 7:30 p.m.
In the first two games the Celtics averaged 45 three-point attempts per game, which is not surprising since they shoot more 3’s by far than anybody. They average 48.5 per game and nobody else is over 44.
Obviously the key for the Cavs is to make them miss a fair amount of 3’s. In the Cavs’ win the Celtics were 17-for-49 from deep (34%). In the Celtics’ win they were 22-for-41 (54%). No team is more dependent on 3-point shooting than Boston.
In fact, 53.5% of Boston’s shots are from beyond the arc. No other team is higher than 47%. The Celtics rank last in points in the paint and last in fast break points. You hold them to 34% from deep, you win. Let him hit 54%, you lose. That's how it's played out so far.
The Celtics are 25th in pace. They play slow and try to set up 3’s coming off screens in the half-court offense. They rank 28th in frequency of shots at the rim, 29th in the mid-range, and 1st on 3’s. They have the most unbalanced offense in the league, but it works for them.
Tatum and Brown average 27 and 23 points per game. Brown is only shooting 32% from deep. Porzingus averages 19 points on 48% from the field and 42% on 3’s. You can’t let him take his time and shoot an uncontested 3. Derrick White averages 16 points and JRue Holiday 11. Payton Pritchard comes off the bench to average 14 points on 42% from deep while 38-year-old Al Horford averages 8 points.
Interestingly, their preferred starting lineup of Brown/White/Tatum/Holiday/Porzingis is a -1.7 points per 100 possessions. Swap Luke Kornet in for Porzingis and it jumps to +8.5. Swap Horford for Porzingis and it explodes to +19.8. Porzingis has the worst individual on/off on the team at -8.8. Horford may be old, but when he’s in there they dominate.
Defensively the Celtics are excellent, ranking 6th in scoring, 2nd in effective field goal percentage, 4th in 2-point percentage, and 8th in 3-point percentage. Offensively the Cavs are 1st in eFG, 2-point percentage, and 3-point percentage, so something has to give. The Celtics are allowing 108.5 ppg and the Cavs scored 115 and 117 in the first two games.
The Cavs allow an average of 111.8 points and the Celts scored 111 and 120, so both teams have done a little better offensively against the other than the rest of the league, but not much.
Donovan Mitchell gets up for the Celtics; he is averaging 35 ppg against them this year. Mobley is at 15.5, Darius 15.0, LeVert 13.0, Allen 9.0, and Jerome 8.0. Garland is shooting 24.2% from the field in the two games so he needs to get untracked. Jrue Holiday is a great defender and he has had Darius’ number so far. In the Cavs 120-117 loss Darius was 3-for-21 from the field, which must be the worst shooting game of his career.
I would say the key factors in the 3-point loss in Boston were 1) the Celtics going 22-for-41 on 3’s; 2) Garland going 3-for-21 and 3) the Cavs having to start Merrill at the 3 against Jaylen Brown.
So that’s it. The Cavs are on a roll and may be playing as well now as they have all year even with Wade and Okoro out. The Celtics have been muddling along; 6 of their last 8 wins have come against teams .500 or lower and they lost to Sacramento, Atlanta, and Toronto in January. They played 12-37 New Orleans twice in January and beat them by 1 and 2 points. Toronto is 16-33 and the Celtics lost to them by 13 with all their guys healthy.
But they are healthier now than they were in the first two games against the Cavs and they have been really good on the road. But as long as Darius doesn’t go 3-for-21 again and the Celtics don’t shoot 54% on 3’s, I like the Cavs’ chances.
The Cavs fly to Detroit after the game to play the Pistons tomorrow night, so that will be a tough one on the second night of a back-to-back on the road, although it will be a short flight.
Injury Report
CLEVELAND
Isaac Okoro - OUT (shoulder)
Dean Wade - OUT (knee)
Luke Travers - OUT (ankle)
BOSTON
none