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Wham's Game Preview: Cavs vs Lakers

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The 4-0 Cavaliers welcome LeBron James and the 3-1 Lakers to Rocket Mortgage Arena. The Cavs are coming off a 110-104 win in MSG against the Knicks and are on a roll. The Lakers won their first three games, all at home, then lost a close one in Phoenix Monday night. Their wins were against Phoenix, Minnesota, and Sacramento by 7, 7, and 4 points. Their loss to Phoenix was by 4 points. So all four of their games have been decided by 4-7 points.

The Lakers seem to be another team that has decided to put most of its resources into the starting five at the expense of depth. Their starters combine to score 100.5 points per game while the bench averages 16.8. It is the lowest scoring bench in the NBA after one week.

In terms of minutes, the starters average 32-37 minutes while the four-man bench rotation all average 15-18 minutes. That’s a big gap. The highest scorer off the bench averages 5.8 points per game. The talent gap between starters and bench is as large as there is.

This is a veteran starting lineup; LeBron is 39, Anthony Davis 31, D’Angelo Russell 28, and Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura are 26. All but Reaves have six or more years in the Association.

One potential problem for the Lakers down the road is having the starting five playing a lot of minutes. LeBron is averaging nearly 35 minutes and says he plans to play every game.

[Anthony] Davis has looked like an MVP candidate, but he is clocking in 37.1 minutes per game through four games; Davis has never played more than 36.4 minutes per game, and that was back in 2018…Both James and Davis played more than 70 games and had six-year highs in total minutes [last season], then spent their summers earning gold medals. Their durability and endurance bears watching, especially given their respective histories and that the Lakers are dead last in bench points per game. - The Athletic

This looks like another of those top heavy teams like the Bucks, Sixers, and Knicks where if the Cavs’ starters can play the opponents’ starters even then the Cavs’ bench should dominate their counterparts.

The Lakers have a great offense, averaging 117.3 ppg which ranks 6th. They are 4th in points in the paint and 26th in 3-point attempts per game, so like the Knicks they prefer to take it to the rim. That could be to the Cavs’ advantage with their big rim protectors. The Lakers are 4th in 3-point percentage, so they are good outside shooters despite taking fewer than most teams.

They don’t get fouled as much as I expected, ranking 11th in free throw attempts per game. They play unselfishly, ranking 3rd in assists, and they take care of the ball, ranking 7th best in turnover rate. They’re average in offensive rebounding.

Anthony Davis is off to a great start at 32.8 points and 12.0 rebounds on 55% overall and 29% on 3’s. He leads the Lakers in minutes at 37 per game. He’s taking 20 shots per game and getting to the line 13 times, which is half of the team’s total. The battle between him and Jarrett Allen should be epic.

LeBron is their power forward, with an early line of 20.0/7.0/7.5 in 35 minutes. LeBron is averaging 39% on 3’s so you can’t leave him alone. He’s taking 16 shots per game which is the lowest of his career.

Their backup power forwards, Jarred Vanderbilt and Christian Wood, are both out. When LeBron sat for 12 minutes against Phoenix his spot was taken by Max Christie (6’5”, 190) or Dalton Knecht (6’6”, 215). Their other two bench players last game were 6’2” point guard Gabe Vincent and 7’0” center Jaxson Hayes as they went with a 9-man rotation.

Rui Hachimura, 6’8”, 230, in his 7th season, starts at small forward. The ESPN depth chart lists him as a small forward, but he and LeBron are probably interchangeable. Hachimura has a career average of 12.8 ppg, but he’s off to a blazing start this year at 17.5 ppg on 44% from the field and 61% on 3’s. He only takes 3.5 threes per game, however. Dean Wade probably gets this assignment.

The Cavs seem to match up well defensively; Allen on AD, Mobley on LeBron, and Wade on Hachimura. LeBron will probably try to muscle Mobley to the rim. That’s a tough matchup. LeBron scored just 11 points Monday against Phoenix, barely keeping his double figure scoring streak alive. It’s somewhere north of 1,000 games. He may have been saving his energy for the Cavs.

D’Angelo Russell is the point guard and he’s off to a slow start at 11 ppg on 38% overall and 28% on 3’s. He’s the one guy who is struggling offensively.

Backup PG Gabe Vincent is averaging 3 points on 31% and 22% so they’re getting very little offense from their point guards. They really need help at backup PG and PF. Their backup shooting guard, Max Christie, is shooting 33% and 29%, so their bench is very offensively challenged.

Shooting guard Austin Reaves (6’5”, 197) is off to an excellent start at 19.3 ppg on 55% from the field and 48% on 3’s. He’s taking over six 3’s per game so the Cavs need to chase him off the line.

The Lakers have been average defensively, ranking 17th in scoring defense. They are susceptible to running teams as they rank 28th in fast break points allowed. The Cavs may be able to exploit this, especially in the 4th quarter if their starters have played a lot of minutes.

The Lakers are only 26th in opponents’ effective field goal percentage so they’re one of the five worst teams at forcing missed shots (but they did play half their games so far against Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, so beware of small samples).

Their strength is rebounding where they lead the NBA in defensive rebound percentage at 81%. If you miss your shot you might as well get back on defense; crashing the offensive glass against AD, LeBron, and Hachimura probably won’t get you anywhere.

The Lakers rank 27th in opponents’ 2-point shooting percentage which is surprising with AD at center. They are better defending the 3, ranking 12th. The Cavs should attack the rim until the Lakers prove they can stop it. I think Mitchell and Garland can beat Russell and Reaves off the dribble, get into the paint, and force AD to decide whether to defend the floater or the lob.

The Lakers are average in block percentage and steal percentage.

The Lakers have been an astounding 63.2 points per 100 possessions better with Hachimura on the floor. Very small sample, of course, but that’s in the 99th percentile. In four games the Lakers are +56 with Rui on the court and -42 when he’s off. His hot start appears to be the key to their success. Whoever is checking him on the Cavs needs to focus on stopping him and not doubling LeBron or AD.

Both teams had a day off after playing on the road. Should be more of a high scoring affair than the Knicks game. The Cavs shoot 3’s better at home and are 3rd in points per game. The Lakers are 6th, but they have played a much tougher schedule. The Cavs are better defensively, giving up 107 points per game to 114 for the Lakers.

In his last two games Darius Garland is 21-for-30 from the field and 9-for-13 on 3’s for 57 points. Mitchell is 20-for-35 and 9-for-19 from deep for 55 points. Allen is shooting 81% from the field, 79% from the line, and averaging 17.3 ppg. Mobley is shooting 88% from the line (career average 68%). He’s approaching Mark Price territory!

Injury Report

CLEVELAND
Max Strus - OUT (ankle)
Emoni Bates - OUT (knee)
Craig Porter Jr - OUT (thumb)

LOS ANGELES
LeBron James - PROBABLE (illness)
D'Angelo Russell - PROBABLE (back)
Christian Koloko - OUT (illness)
Jarred Vanderbilt - OUT (foot)
Christian Wood - OUT (knee)


 

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