Following a three-day holiday respite the Cavs head west starting with a rematch with the Denver Nuggets. The Nugs are 16-12 overall and 8-4 at home as opponents have to adjust to the altitude. It shouldn’t be too much of a problem for the Cavs since they are very deep and substitute frequently.
Dean Wade is expected to play so as of Thursday night only Isaac Okoro will miss this game. The Nuggets’ starting power forward Aaron Gordon had to leave Wednesday’s game with calf tightness so we’ll see if he can go. It’s the same calf that caused him to miss the entire month of November so this could be problematic.
"Hopefully, Aaron is going to be ready to go for Cleveland, but we'll have to wait and see these next 24, 48 hours," Denver coach Michael Malone said.
Backup center DaRon Holmes is out for the year, leaving them with 36-year-old DeAndre Jordan behind Nikola Jokic.
The Nuggets have been a mediocre team recently. In their last five games they beat the 13-17 Kings by 1, lost to 9-20 Portland by 2, beat 5-25 New Orleans in OT, and split with 15-14 Phoenix, winning by 27 at home and losing by 10 on the road on Christmas.
On Dec. 5 the Cavs beat the Nuggets in Cleveland 126-114. The Cavs’ bench outscored the Nuggets bench 43-16 and the Cavs made 22 3-pointers against 6 for the Nuggets for a 48-point advantage. However, Denver outscored the Cavs in the paint 76-40 and on the fast break 28-12. It was a battle between a team that attacked the rim and a team that took over 50% of their shots from deep.
This time the Cavs will have Max Strus but not Isaac Okoro. Isaac played just 12 minutes in the first game, scoring 3 points, so that’s not a big loss. Denver had all their rotation guys in the first game.
The Nuggets are an outstanding offensive team but are below average defensively. At home they rank 4th in scoring at 118 ppg. The Cavs are 6th in scoring on the road so this should be a high scoring game.
The Nuggets lead the NBA in percentage of shots at the rim (39%). The Cavs lead the NBA in rim defense so this game will feature the team that takes the most shots at the rim against the best rim defending team. Something has to give.
Conversely, the Nuggets take a lower percentage of 3-point shots than any team at 35%. The interesting thing is that the Nuggets rank 16th in field goal percentage at the rim and 6th in 3-point percentage, so it seems they should shoot more 3’s. My guess is they try to attack the rim on every possession and only take 3’s when they are uncontested.
Since the Cavs are strong defensively in the paint they should match up well against the Nuggets. In the first game the Nuggets were 6-for-24 on 3’s, well below their average, so I expect they'll be better at home. They average 19 fast break points per game to lead the league and scored 28 in the first game, so the Cavs need to do better at transition defense this time.
In the first game the Cavs didn’t double-team Jokic and he ended up with 27 points, 20 rebounds, and 11 assists, but the Nuggets were outscored by 8 points when he was on the floor. The key is to let him get his numbers but don’t double him and give up uncontested 3's. It’s tough to win in this league when you only make six 3’s, especially against the league's best 3-point shooting team.
The Nuggets draw a lot of fouls, ranking 2nd in free throws per possession. They were 16-for-22 in the first game. They average 19 points from the line, so the Cavs did all right. I think the Cavs’ defensive keys are to defend the rim effectively without excessive fouling and do better at limiting fast break points.
Defensively the Nuggets rank 20th in points per game at home. They’re 23rd in points in the paint, 25th in block percentage, and 24th in fast break points. They’re better on the perimeter, ranking 12th in opponents’ 3-point percentage, but the Cavs made 46% of their 3’s in the first game.
The Nuggets are 26th in forcing turnovers and when you add in their well below average shot blocking it’s not hard to get shots up on them. They’re 22nd in rim defense despite all that height; at 284 pounds Jokic is not a leaper. They’re 24th in defensive rebound percentage. There’s really nothing they do well defensively, although they are solid at defending 3’s.
What stands out about Denver is their excellent starting lineup. In non-garbage time Jokic, who has a great shot at winning his FOURTH MVP award this year, is a +27.7 points per 100 possessions. Christian Braun is at +20.8 and the other three starters are +8 to +12. Jokic makes everybody better. Their entire bench, however, is -5 or worse. Their bench ranks 25th in net rating while the Cavs’ bench ranks 2nd. We saw that in the first game when the Cavs’ bench outscored theirs 43-16.
Another key for this game is for the Cavs’ starters to play even with Denver’s starters (or close to even) and let our bench win the game. In the first game the Cavs’ bench had a 27-point advantage in a 12-point win even though the Nuggets bench plays few minutes.
The Nuggets know how bad their bench is. Their starters all average 34-37 minutes per game except for Aaron Gordon at 29. The Nuggets just have to hope they have no injuries to their starters and that they can hold up to playing that many minutes for the 82 games plus the playoffs.
Jokic is having perhaps his best season, averaging just shy of a triple-double at 30.7/12.6/9.4. He’s shooting an astonishing 57% from the field and 50% on 3’s. The Cavs should be able to keep switching Allen, Mobley, and Wade on him like they did against Giannis. At least make him work for his points and keep our bigs out of foul trouble.
Jamal Murray averages 19 ppg and 6 assists. He is battling an ankle injury and scored just 13 points on Wednesday. Michael Porter Jr averages 18 points on 51% from the field and 39% on 3’s. Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon each average 14 points on 54% and 53% from the field. Russell Westbrook, age 36, averages 12 points as their 6th man.
The Nuggets have a very tall starting lineup at 6’4”, 6’6”, 6’8”, 6’10”, and 6’11”, but they don’t seem to be particularly quick. Garland, Mitchell, and LeVert combined for 73 points in the first game, frequently attacking 6’6”, 220-pound shooting guard Christian Braun. My recollection was that Braun was unable to stay in front of any of them and when they got to the paint the Nuggets are not good rim protectors.
So the Cavs should focus on dribble penetration followed by either a floater, layup, lob to a big, or kickout for an open 3. Defensively it’s all about defending the rim and getting back in transition defense. This should be a high scoring shootout between two very different teams. The Cavs scored 126 in the first game with Strus out, Wade playing in only his second game since his injury, and Okoro with just 3 points.
Injury Report
CLEVELAND
Isaac Okoro - OUT (shoulder)
Dean Wade - QUESTIONABLE (knee)
JT Thor - OUT (G-League assignment)
Luke Travers - OUT (G-League assignment)
Emoni Bates - OUT (G-League assignment)
DENVER
Aaron Gordon - OUT (calf)
Vlatko Cancar - OUT (knee)
DaRon Holmes - OUT (achilles)
Jamal Murray - QUESTIONABLE (ankle)