Wham's Game Preview: Cavs vs Rockets

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After totally eclipsing the Suns in Cleveland the Cavs hit the road for two games in Houston on Wednesday and Philly on Friday before a rematch with Houston at home on Saturday. The Cavaliers have won 19 of 22 since their back-to-back losses to the Hawks. They are a league best 15-4 on the road.

The Rockets are 28-14, but only 7-5 in their last 12 games. They are 16-11 against teams .500 and over and 14-7 at home. The Rockets lost their last game to Detroit at home by a 107-96 score.

The Rockets are an elite defensive team, ranking 4th in opponents’ points per game at just under 108. They are 4th in effective field goal percentage and lead the NBA in opponents’ 2-point percentage. They are 18th in opponents’ 3-point percentage and Rockets’ opponents are aware of that. Only one team has a higher frequency of opponent 3-point shots than the Rockets.

The Rockets force a lot of turnovers, ranking 6th, and as a result their opponents take the 6th fewest shots per game. The Rockets lead the league in shots per game and on the average they take 6.5 more shots per game than their opponents. In non-garbage time the Rockets have the 2nd best scoring defense in the NBA according to cleaningtheglass.com.

Offensively the Rockets rank 12th in points per game, but they are missing Jabari Smith Jr, their starting power forward, who averages 12 points and 6.5 rebounds in 31 minutes. They are 7th in points in the paint and 2nd in fast break points so the Cavs need to get back on defense. The Rockets are a young, athletic team that likes to run the break and crash the offensive glass. They have five rotation players who are 20-23 years old, not counting Smith.

The Rockets are not good shooters, ranking 26th in effective field goal percentage, 27th in 3-point percentage, and 27th in 2-point percentage. They know they suck at 3-point shooting as they rank 27th in percentage of 3’s taken.

Where they really excel is offensive rebounding percentage as they lead the NBA at 31.2%. The next closest team is at 29.0% so the Rockets are easily the best team in the league at getting second chance opportunities. They rank 4th in points scored after a missed shot. Alperen Sengun ranks 6th in the league at 3.5 offensive rebounds per game and Amen Thompson averages 2.6. Steven Adams comes off the bench to average 2.4 in just 11 minutes.

Clearly the key for the Cavaliers defensively is to rebound the first missed shot, or at least make them miss the second shot. The Rockets are only 25th in getting points after an offensive rebound so chances are good they’ll miss the second shot as well. With Mobley out it will be up to Allen, Wade, Niang, and the guards to hit the defensive glass.

In their last game against Detroit the Rockets got 15 offensive rebounds but only scored 96 points because they shot 39% from the field and 28% on 3’s.

The Rockets rank 7th in frequency of shots at the rim, 10th in the mid-range, and 27th on 3’s, so the key will be to protect the rim and rebound the first missed shot. Make them shoot jumpers as much as possible - the more 3’s the better and then everybody help on the defensive glass.

The Rockets are last in the NBA in assist percentage, indicating they try to get the matchup they want and go one-on-one. They attack the rim in isolation, then crash the glass when the opponents’ big man challenges the layup.

Fred VanVleet, age 30, is the starting point guard. FVV averages 15 points and 6 assists but shoots just 39% from the field and 33% on 3’s. SG Jalen Green, drafted one spot above Evan Mobley, is their leading scorer at 21.5 ppg. Green is making 44% and 36% of his attempts from the field and 3-point range.

Dillon Brooks is filling in at power forward for Jabari Smith. Brooks, 6’6”, 220, averages 13.0 ppg on 41% from the field. SF Amen Thompson averages 13 points and 8 rebounds on 56% from the field but only 24% on 3’s. The center is Alperen Sengun who has a line of 19.2/10.5/5.1. Sengun at age 22 is one of the up-and-coming young centers and is playing at an All-Star level in his 4th season. Sengun is making just 23% of his 3’s so he is not a stretch 5.

Tari Eason, 6’8”, averages 23 minutes off the bench. Eason averages 11.6 points and 6.2 rebounds but is shooting just 32% on 3’s. The Cavs should let Eason, Sengun, Thompson, and VanVleet take 3's if they want to but don't allow dribble penetration.

As a team the Rockets are making just 33.8% of their 3’s, so the key is to defend the paint and the mid-range and don’t overplay the 3-pointer and allow blow-bys. The Cavs have been playing a lot of zone lately and we could see that against the Rockets in order to force them to shoot 3’s while keeping them out of the paint.

The Cavs played great defense against the Suns, limiting them to 92 points despite Mobley, Okoro, and LeVert being out and the Suns having Durant, Booker, and Beal available. Houston and Phoenix are both middle of the pack in scoring, so hopefully the Cavs can also hold the Rockets under 100 points. Defensive rebounding will be the key.

On offense the Cavs need to limit turnovers against a defense that ranks 6th in forcing turnovers and have a good 3-point shooting night against a team that is on the low end of average at defending 3’s. Mobley and Okoro are out; LeVert is a game time decision.

Injury Report

CLEVELAND
Luke Travers - OUT (G-League)
JR Thor - OUT (G-League)
Evan Mobley - OUT (calf)
Isaac Okoro - OUT (shoulder)
Caris LeVert - QUESTIONABLE (wrist)

HOUSTON
Jabari Smith - OUT (hand)
N'Faly Diante - QUESTIONABLE (undisclosed)

 

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