The Warriors were 7-1 going into that game and had just beaten the Celtics in Boston, so the Cavs burying them in just 24 minutes was a shock. Since then the W’s have replaced starting guard Gary Payton II with Dennis Schroder and the Cavs have replaced the injured Isaac Okoro with Max Strus. Backup point guard Brandin Podziemski is out. Otherwise it's the same personnel.
The Warriors this year have been a tale of two teams. They started 12-3 and have since gone 4-12. They have lost 6 of their last 8 games with one of the wins coming by 4 points over Phoenix on Saturday. The Suns were missing starters Devin Booker (25 ppg) and center Jusuf Nurkic.
The Dubs recently traded for Dennis Schroder and they are 2-4 since the deal. Schroder’s high scoring game with the Dubs is 11 points and he is shooting 29% as he adjusts to his new team.
The Warriors might be the NBA’s smallest team as their current starting lineup consists of Steph Curry (6’2”), Schroder (6’1”), Draymond Green (6’6”), Andrew Wiggins (6’7”), and Trayce Jackson-Davis (6’9”). The reserves are Jonathan Kuminga (6’7”), Buddy Hield (6’4”), Lindy Waters (6'6") and Kevin Looney (6'9").
With Okoro out and Max Strus still returning to form the Cavs are starting a front line of Allen, Mobley, and Dean Wade, so they will have a huge height advantage over a team that has just one rotation player over 6’7”. But it was Darius Garland (27 points) and Ty Jerome (20 points in 21 minutes) that were the most effective in the first game.
For the season the Warriors are average offensively, ranking 16th in points per game. They shoot a lot of 3’s, ranking 8th in 3-rate, but are only 16th in accuracy at 36.2%. They play at a very fast pace, ranking 3rd in field goal attempts per game. They pass the ball very well, ranking 5th in assists per possession and despite the lack of height they are 7th in offensive rebound percentage.
The Warriors rank 24th in percentage of shots at the rim and 8th in percentage of 3’s, so they love to push the ball up and take a quick transition 3, so the Cavs need to work hard to get back in transition and make the W’s play a half court game against taller defenders.
Steph Curry is 36 and is slowing down, although he’s still capable of making some incredible shots as he showed at the Olympics and late in their loss to the Lakers last week. Over the last three seasons his minutes have been reduced from 34.7 to 31.3, his shooting percentage fell from 49.3% to 44.2%, and his 3-point percentage from 42.7% to 40.6%. He’s still an All-Star but just not as dominant as he was two years ago.
Jonathan Kuminga comes off the bench to average 16.7 points on 46% from the field and 32% from deep. He scored 34 points in each of their last two games, taking 19 and 20 shots. With Klay Thompson gone Kuminga is taking a bigger role in the offense.
Andrew Wiggins averages 16.6 ppg on 44% overall and 41% on 3’s. Draymond Green, who will turn 35 in March, is still chugging along with a line of 8.7/6.3/5.6, doing a little of everything except he is no longer kicking Cavalier players in the groin.
After the Cavs’ win in November, Green had this comment:
"They're so intentional about the extra pass, and that is a staple for us,” Green said. “The drive, kick, swing is what we've preached for years, and they diced us up with it.
“I was telling Steph like in the fourth quarter, 'I feel like they just beat us with what we've beat teams with for years.’"
Dennis Schroder has gotten off to a very rocky start with the Dubs as noted above. Trayce Jackson-Davis, a second-year player who was the 57th pick in 2023, is the starting center at 6’9”, 245 pounds. He has put up 11-16 points and 8-10 rebounds in each of his last five games, going 31-for-47 from the field. He does not shoot 3’s.
In their last game against Phoenix Jackson-Davis played 23 minutes, meaning that for 25 minutes they did not have a player over 6’7” on the floor.
The key for the Cavs defensively is to hound Curry and prevent him from getting uncontested 3’s. Also make him move continuously on defense to wear him down. Garland had 27 points the first game and I assume a lot of those came against Curry. The Cavs also need to box out on the defensive glass because the W’s are strong at offensive rebounding and had 11 in the first game. And get back in transition after a missed shot or even a made basket.
For the season the Warriors are a good defensive team despite lacking height. They are 10th in points allowed per game at 110.5, even more impressive because they play at such a fast pace that there are a lot of possessions. However, the Cavs put up 83 in the first half in Cleveland, so they figured something out.
The Warriors rank 4th in points allowed in the paint (surprisingly), 4th in effective field goal percentage, and 5th in opponents 3-point shooting percentage. But the Cavs hit nearly 48% of their 3’s in the first game, well above the W’s average of 34.5%.
The Cavs have hit 20 or more 3’s in each of their last five games and are shooing 46.6% on 3's over that span. The W’s are very good at forcing missed 3’s but gave up 20 in the first game on 42 attempts, so I’m sure the Warriors’ defensive game plan will emphasize contesting 3’s, especially after seeing how the Cavs wiped out Denver from long range.
The Warriors are allowing 110.5 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, but in the last two weeks that number jumped to 119.6. They are not playing defense as well recently as when they started 12-3, so the Cavs should have another good game offensively.
Steph Curry leads the Warriors in on/off at +15.1. Draymond Green is second at +8.1. Nobody else is higher than +1.9 and most of the others are negative. Schroder is -29.8 in his first six games, but that will improve as he settles in. The Warriors have a problem in that their two most effective players are 34 and 36 years old. However, Kuminga just turned 22 and is already in his 4th season.
The Cavs are catching the Warriors at a good time as they have lost 6 of 8 and it would have been 7 of 8 if Phoenix was not missing their best player. The Cavs are coming off the best offensive game in franchise history and have had two days rest while the W’s defense has been sketchy the last two weeks.
Injury Report
CLEVELAND
Isaac Okoro - OUT (shoulder)
JT Thor - OUT (G-League assignment)
Luke Travers - OUT (G-League assignment)
Emoni Bates - OUT (G-League assignment)
GOLDEN STATE
Brandin Podziemski - OUT (abdomen)
Gary Payton II - OUT (calf)
Moses Moody - QUESTIONABLE (knee)