The Cavs open the 2026 playoffs against the Toronto Raptors, who won all three games against the Cavs in the regular season. However, all three games took place in Oct-Nov when the Cavs were a much different team.
The Raptors are the 5th seed with a record of 46-36. They started with a 14-5 record but went 32-31 the rest of the way. Basically they’ve been a mediocre team for the last three-quarters of the season.
The Raptors dominated weak competition, going 24-6 against teams under .500. They were 22-30 against teams over .500 and according to RCF they were 7-22 against teams with a top-10 net rating. Cleaning the Glass has the Cavs ranked 9th. So the Raptors were 4-22 against top 10 teams other than the early season version of the Cavs.
Jarrett Allen played just 21 minutes against the Raptors this year. DeAndre Hunter and Lonzo Ball played a total of 121 minutes, Tomlin played 53 minutes and CPJ 45. This Cavs team will be much different than anything the Raptors have seen this year.
For the season the Raptors ranked 21st in scoring and 9th in scoring defense. They were 4th in points in the paint and 1st in fast break points, so it’s obvious how they play. The Raptors were well below average both in 3-point attempts and 3-point accuracy resulting in a rank of 26th in made 3’s per game.
The Cavs would seem to match up well against this team because the Cavs were 4th best in defending the rim and 27th in defending 3’s, so the Raptors don’t seem like the team to take advantage of the Cavs’ biggest defensive vulnerability.
However, a Raptors fan site pointed something out:
Overall, the Raptors aren’t a great 3-point shooting team. But they were efficient from behind the arc over their last fifteen games, shooting 40.1% on 28.1 attempts per game. That’s third in the league.
The Raptors’ most efficient shooter over that stretch was Ja’Kobe Walter, who sank 53.8% of his 5.2 attempts per game. Sandro Mamukelashvili and Brandon Ingram also shot over 40% on a little over three attempts per game.
The Cavs would be well advised not to sag off and invite the Raptors to take uncontested 3’s since they were 3rd best in the NBA over their last 15 games.
The Raptors lead the NBA in fast break points. However, in two of their games against the Cavs the fast break points were even; only in one game did the Raptors win the fast break contest (28-6). In that game the Raptors scored 126 points; in the other two they scored 110 and 112. One key to the Cavs defense will be limiting fast break points. To do that they need to minimize live ball turnovers, hit their 3-point shots, and get back in transition defense.
The Cavs shot under 29% on 3-point attempts against the Raptors. The Raptors ranked 7th in opponents’ 3-point accuracy, so shooting a lot of 3’s is not a good idea. They have great length on the perimeter. The Raptors are average at defending the rim so that’s a better option.
According to Cleaning the Glass the Raptors rank fourth or higher in both transition frequency and transition points added per 100 possessions. No team pushes more off live rebounds… - Jimmy Watkins
A significant challenge for the Cavaliers will be handling Toronto’s fast-break transition offense and limiting live-ball turnovers. Cleveland relies on a high volume of analytically sound three-point shots; however, misses frequently lead to long rebounds that allow opponents to quickly run the floor.
Toronto is capable of pushing the pace with long arms and athletic wings, which directly attacks Cleveland’s most glaring defensive weakness. Furthermore, the Cavaliers’ reliance on two traditional, slower big men makes it incredibly difficult for them to consistently sprint back on defense…if Cleveland suffers from uncharacteristic shooting slumps or lazy turnovers, Toronto easily has the personnel to put the Cavaliers on their heels, much like the Indiana Pacers did in last year’s playoffs. - Wine and Gold podcast summary
I would say that Allen and Mobley rim run much better than Jakob Poeltl, so I don’t quite agree with the characterization of them as “slower big men.”
When Toronto has the ball the Cavs have to cut off fast breaks and force them into a half-court offense. In transition the Raptors ranked 1st in points per possession; in the half-court offense they were 10th.
The Raptors have balanced scoring with Brandon Ingram averaging 22 points per game, RJ Barrett 19, Scottie Barnes 18, Immanuel Quickley 16, and Jakob Poeltl and Sandro Mamukelashvili (Mamu) 11 each. Poeltl is a 7’0” traditional center who does not shoot 3’s. He averages 25 minutes per game. Mamu is their backup center at 6’9” and they also use Collin Murray-Boyles (6’7”, 245) at the 5.
The Cavs will have a significant height advantage at center when Poeltl is not in the game, which is about half the time.
The Raptors made about 36% of their 3’s this year, led by reserve Ja’Kobe Walker at 41%, Mamu at 39%, and Ingram at 38%.
The Raptors only rank 21st in pace and 24th in field goal attempts, so they only play fast when they force a turnover. They lead the NBA in assists per possession, so they really share the ball. The Cavs need to be ready for a ton of ball movement. The Raptors commit the 7th fewest turnovers and are average in offensive rebound percentage.
Scottie Barnes, Toronto’s franchise icon, put together an incredible season. He was selected to the All-Star Game for the second time in his career and posted career highs in total points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, field goal percentage, and free throw percentage. He is also likely to make First-Team All-Defense. What a season. - Raptors fan site
If the Cavs minimize fast break points and defend the paint well they should be fine defensively. The Raptors are better at the rim (8th) than in the mid-range (13th) and long range (18th) so the key will be to force them to shoot contested jump shots.
Defensively the Raptors are 4th best in opponents’ 3-point percentage thanks to a lot of length on the perimeter (Ingram 6’8”, Barrett 6’6”, Barnes 6’8”, and Murray-Boyles 6’7”). They are average at defending the rim and above average defending mid-range shots. Overall they are 9th in scoring defense. They force a lot of turnovers (4th) and defend the 3 very well.
Scottie Barnes, a likely first-team All-Defense selection, has given Evan Mobley problems in past matchups. Jakob Poeltl can bring physicality in the paint. And the Raptors’ length and ability to push pace could create uncomfortable moments for a Cleveland defense that still struggles in transition…While they can run, they lack the offensive firepower or dominance on the glass to keep up if the Cavs start splashing from deep. - Wine and Gold podcast summary
The interior matchups will be crucial, spotlighting the intense rivalry between Evan Mobley and Scottie Barnes. Barnes has historically performed well against Mobley and inherently uses his physical play style to challenge the Cavaliers’ forward, reigniting conversations from their Rookie of the Year race. Mobley will be heavily scrutinized to see if he can aggressively endure Barnes’ physicality. Additionally, an injured Jarrett Allen will face a highly physical test against Jakob Poeltl inside. Because Allen is managing tendinitis and relies more on finesse and footwork, his ability to withstand Poeltl’s bruising interior presence is vital to the team’s success. The Cavaliers desperately need their big men to dominate these highly contested matchups to secure a distinct advantage in the paint. - Wine and Gold podcast summary
The Raptors point guards are Immanuel Quickley (6’2”) and Jamal Shead (6’1”). Quickley has a mild hamstring pull and his status is unknown for Saturday. He recently returned to the lineup after missing 8 games with right foot plantar fasciitis. He has only played in 3 games averaging 19 minutes since returning. If he can play Saturday he will have played just 57 minutes in nearly a month.
The Raptors’ starting five is a +9.0 per 100 possessions, so they have an excellent starting unit when Quickley is good. But will he be available and if so, will the long layoff and/or hamstring issue reduce his effectiveness?
The defining trait of that [starting] lineup is their offense. They score 123.1 points per 100 possessions when they play together. For context, the Denver Nuggets lead the league in offensive efficiency at 121.1 points per 100 possessions.
If you swap Poeltl for Murray-Boyles [CMB], the net rating drops to +4.1 (which would rank ninth in the league). However, the offense drops to a horrendous 109.9 points per 100 possessions. Toronto is still successful with a starters + CMB lineup because they turn into a stifling defensive unit. - Raptors fan site
Shead is in his second season and is shooting 37% from the field and 32% on 3’s. If he has to play a lot of minutes because Quickley is limited or ineffective it could be a problem for Toronto. However, Shead leads the Raptors with a +7.6 individual plus/minus. Barnes is second at +4.2. The Raptors seem to do very well when Shead is in the game.
However, with Quickley and Shead being as short as they are I can see Harden taking them to the rim for layups or shooting 3’s over them. The Raptors rank 21st in opponents’ free throw attempts so they will foul you.
The Raptors are 4th in forcing turnovers and I’m sure they understand they will need to force a lot of them to win this series. They will be extremely physical and aggressive on defense so protecting the ball and not forcing a lot of risky passes will be key. Matching Toronto’s physicality will also be important. The Cavs have the 4th highest rated offense since the Harden trade and I’m sure the Raptors will be grabbing, holding, denying passes, and trying to prevent the Cavs from setting screens and getting to their spots.
I'm sure the Raptors will be testing the refs early to see how much grabbing they can get away with. The refs tend to allow more physicality in the playoffs, not wanting to keep stopping the game, so this could be to the Raptors' advantage.
So there you have it. I think the key for the Cavs will be the quality of their preparation over the five days off before this game and getting themselves physically and mentally prepared to exploit the Raptors’ weaknesses while countering their strengths. Another huge factor will be how well Kenny utilizes his personnel; he has a lot of options.
How long does he stick with respected veterans like Strus and Schroder if they are ineffective? Does he play big or small? Does he go with 8, 9, or 10 in his rotation and who are they? Kenny needs to make smart personnel decisions and not get outcoached.
The one game where the Raptors scored over 112 points against the Cavs was the game where they won the fast break battle 28-6. Scottie Barnes had 28 points, 10 rebounds, and 8 assists. Mobley and Allen combined for 13 points on 13 field goal attempts. They need to be a lot more involved in the offense.
Atkinson talked about three things, and it begins with Cleveland’s offense:
1. The Cavs must take care of the ball against a lanky, energetic Toronto defense that wants to force deflections and mistakes. “Those early turnovers (in a possession) are like a death sentence,” said the coach.
2. Avoid quick shots early in the shot clock, especially rushed 3-pointers. Those missed shots become long rebounds and turn into fast breaks for an athletic team such as Toronto.
3. Atkinson is urging the Cavs to “take good shots.” He wants the players to look for opportunities to drive to the rim. He also is urging the Cavs to get the ball to big men Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. - Terry Pluto
Injury Report
CLEVELAND
Thomas Bryant - OUT (calf)
TORONTO
Immanuel Quickley - QUESTIONABLE (hamstring)