Dead even after four games and it’s back to Detroit for what will probably be the deciding game. Historically the game 5 winner in a 2-2 series goes on to win the series 84.2% of the time. Whichever team wins has a 3-2 edge and still has a home game left, so it makes sense.
These teams have played each other for 197 minutes and they are very familiar with each other by now. Both coaches have had the opportunity to make adjustments.
Kenny is leaning more on the bigs and less on Tyson and Ellis. Here are the minutes played game by game:
Tyson 18, 22, 14, 8
Ellis 11, 6, 0, 0
Allen 18, 31, 32, 32
Mobley 35, 36, 36, 39
So from game 1 to game 4 Tyson's and Ellis’ minutes declined by 21 while Allen and Mobley’s minutes increased by 18. Kenny is finally moving away from the small lineups.
Likewise JBB is changing his personnel mix.
LeVert 9, 13,17, 31
Reed 0, 0, 10, 14
Thompson 33, 24, 29, 19
Duren 35, 33, 29, 27
Stewart 13, 15, 9, 7
Seeing the need for more offense JBB is giving more minutes to LeVert (24 points on 10-for-16 in game 4) and Reed (26 points in 24 minutes on 11-for-13 the last two games).
So in game 5 I expect more of the same from both coaches. More minutes for the Cavs' bigs at the expense of Tyson and Ellis and more minutes for LeVert and Reed at the expense of Thompson, Duren, and Beef Stew.
Mobley has been coming on. In game 4 he had 17 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists, 5 blocks, and 3 steals for a game high +30. He was doing it on both ends, but especially defense where he also altered some shots.
Evan Mobley reasserted his absolute dominance as a premier rim protector in Game 4, profoundly impacting the basketball game without needing massive scoring totals. Racking up five blocks and three steals, Mobley terrorized Detroit’s primary frontcourt options. He successfully walled up the paint. - W&G podcast summary
Another factor to watch is the free throw attempts. Detroit shot 12 free throws to the Cavs 34 on Monday. Bickerstaff made it a big issue after the game, saying they would send some clips to the league. Between that and the raucous home crowd I’m expecting more calls to go Detroit’s way in game 5. I don’t know if Mitchell and Harden will continue to get calls when they get bumped and hacked on drives as much as they did in Cleveland.
In game 4 the Cavs starting 5 was a +24 in the 13 minutes they were on the floor together, which included the 3rd quarter Cavalanche. Kenny might try to push those minutes to 18 or thereabouts considering this game almost surely decides the series. Both coaches will be pulling out all the stops. A Detroit loss would force them to win in Cleveland on Friday or pack their bags.
I think the pressure is on Detroit. A loss would be catastrophic. If the Cavs lose they can still win at home on Friday and have a second shot at beating the Pistons in Detroit in game 7.
Offensively and defensively, I think we figured some stuff out. - KA
Have the Cavs figured out the right personnel mix and strategies to exploit the Pistons’ weaknesses while minimizing their strengths?
In points conceded off turnovers the Cavs were (starting from game 1) -15, -4, +8, and +5. They have turned that around completely. They are committing fewer turnovers and forcing more. In terms of turnover differential the Cavs are -8, -2, -1, and +5. Each game they are getting better in the turnover battle and in game 4 they had a positive differential both in turnovers and points off turnovers.
Kenny says we’ve figured some stuff out, but has Bickerstaff? How will he defend Mitchell differently after getting burned for 43 points? Will he lean even harder into LeVert and Reed? The Cavs made every effort to neutralize Cade in game 4 with decent success, but the price was LeVert and Reed combining for 39 points on 25 shots.
Regardless of who they play the Pistons have been remarkably consistent, scoring between 103 and 111 points each game. I expect that will continue. If the Cavs can score 112 or more they should win unless the Pistons have a huge 3-point game. It will come down to the Cavs' shot making. And the Cavs continuing to match Detroit’s physicality.
These guys, both teams, it’s incredible what they do from a physical standpoint, but it’s going to be a survival of the fittest, really…Who can withstand, who can sustain physically. - KA
Injury Report
CLEVELAND
none
DETROIT
Caris LeVert - QUESTIONABLE (heel)
Kevin Huerter - QUESTIONABLE (hamstring)
Duncan Robinson - QUESTIONABLE (back)