Here we go - the EC Finals. Two healthy teams that took different paths to get here. The Knicks went 8-2 with the two losses coming by one point each. They cruised through the second round 4-0. The Cavs struggled through two 7-game rock fights against physical, athletic teams determined to impose their will through pressing defense and forcing turnovers.
These teams played each other three times in the regular season. The Knicks won in October and on Christmas Day. The Christmas game was 126-124 as the Cavs were without Harden and Strus. Mobley had not played in nearly two weeks with a calf injury and was limited to 25 minutes. Garland, Hunter, and Ball combined to play 77 minutes. It still came down to the final possession.
The one game where both teams looked very similar to now was on Feb. 24 in Cleveland. McBride was out for the Knicks and Strus for the Cavs; otherwise it was the same personnel as we have now. The Cavs won 109-94 as Mitchell, Harden, and Allen had 23, 20, and 19 points. Wade was +22 while Tyson and Merrill were +13 off the bench. The Cavs were up by 20 halfway through the 4th quarter.
The Knicks have home court advantage and they were 30-10 at the Garden in the regular season and a pedestrian 22-19 on the road. The Cavs were 27-14 at home so they should be able to hold serve; the question is whether they can pull off an upset in New York. The Cavs were 25-16 on the road so they were basically the same home and away while the Knicks were dominant at home and about .500 on the road.
The Knicks are on a roll, having won seven straight after losing games 2 and 3 to Atlanta in their first series.
New York has won seven consecutive playoff games by a total of 185 points…while shooting 54.8% from the field and 43.2% from 3-point range.
The Knicks have been dominant through the first two rounds, outscoring the Hawks and Sixers by an an average of 19.4 points per game, the best differential for any team through two rounds in the 43 years of a 16-team playoff format. - nba.com
Karl-Anthony Towns has been a revelation as a playmaking hub, averaging eight assists per game in this stretch and dominating opposing defenses while taking fewer than 10 shots a night. Working off the ball more often has made Jalen Brunson an even tougher cover. Mikal Bridges has rediscovered both his confidence and the rim. -Yahoo Sports
Playing through Towns at the top of the floor and from the elbows has allowed the Knicks to exploit the unique matchup advantages he provides, as a 7-foot knockdown 3-point marksman who can see over the defense and drop the ball in a bucket to a cutting teammate, and who also has a handle deft enough to drive past lumbering defenders, enough bulk to muscle through smaller ones, and a touch silky enough to finish all types of shots from all types of angles through contact on his way to the rim. - Yahoo Sports
[The Cavs] benefited from playing against a limited playoff offense. Scratch that, two limited playoff offenses.
Cleveland has spent two rounds cheating off non-shooters against the Raptors and Pistons. But New York doesn’t offer as many safe places to sag. - Jimmy Watkins
The Knicks boast a cohesive roster filled with formidable two-way players and elite offensive creators, including Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns. New York features the best scoring system Cleveland has seen in these playoffs, meaning the Cavaliers’ frontcourt can no longer hide off non-shooters and must actively guard their assignments on every possession. - W&G podcast summary
New York enters Round 3 with a playoff offensive rating over three points higher than the league’s best regular-season mark (Denver, 121.2)…six Knicks shooters are hitting 40% of their 3-pointers on at least two attempts per game this postseason. Only two playoff teams allow a higher 3-point percentage than Cleveland. - Jimmy Watkins
The Knicks are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the league. Among 147 players who’ve averaged at least 10 minutes in the playoffs, Mitchell Robinson (16.8%), Jordan Clarkson (11.1%) and Towns (10.6%) rank first, eighth and 11th in offensive rebounding percentage.
The Cavs had the sixth best defensive rebounding percentage (70.3%) against the Knicks in the regular season, but they rank 14th (65.2%) in the playoffs. - nba.com
The X factor in this series is that the Knicks have changed the way they play offense and it seems to have made a difference. The Knicks ranked 8th in scoring during the season at 117.0 ppg. That’s up to 120.4 in the playoffs.
They can also play defense.
A defense that’s been better than most people think for a lot longer than they realize — fourth in points allowed per possession since Christmas — has been snare-drum tight and on a string.
The sum total has been overwhelming: a championship-caliber outfit that returns to the conference finals fresher than last year’s model, with weeks’ worth of reason to believe that it is the best team on this side of the bracket. And, if it can keep this up, maybe on either side of the bracket. - nba.com
The Cavs struggled to get past Toronto and Detroit in seven games. But here’s the thing; the Cavs knocked off Detroit who led the Eastern Conference with 60 wins this year. Detroit was 3-0 against the Knicks, winning by 31, 38, and 15 points. If the Cavs are better than Detroit, and Detroit was a lot better than the Knicks, how do the Cavs stack up against the Knicks, who they beat by 15 the only time the current versions of these teams played?
We’re able to adapt to many different styles of play. But when we play that basketball where first we’re getting stops and then everybody’s running, the ball is moving, I feel like we can beat any team. I feel like we can go out there and be at the highest level of Cavs basketball. The ball is moving, everybody’s touching it, everybody’s involved. - JA
Jarrett mentioned “the ball moving” twice. In Game 7 against the Pistons the Cavs had 31 assists - their high for the series. The ball was moving. The result was 125 points against an elite defensive team. Have the Cavs figured something out?
The Cavs need to come out strong and not wait until the second half to get going.
Game 7 in Detroit was just the second time in their last nine games that the Cavs won the first quarter. Prior to Sunday, they had scored 13.7 more points per 100 possessions in the second halves of games than they have in first halves. - nba.com
Jalen Brunson is averaging 27 ppg in the playoffs, shooting 48% from the field and 41% on 3’s. But against the Cavs this year he shot 34% overall and 36% from deep. The Knicks averaged 117 ppg for the season and 113 against the Cavs.
Karl-Anthony Towns is shooting 59% from the field and 48% on 3’s in the playoffs. Against the Cavs he shot 50% and 29%. OG Anunoby shot 62% and 54% against Atlanta and Philly; against the Cavs he shot 43% and 32%.
I don’t know if the Knicks offense is just creating a lot more open looks now or if the Cavs just defend the Knicks much better than Atlanta and Philly. We’ll find out soon.
According to the NBA’s tracking data, Brunson has a combined 6 points on 1-15 shooting with two assists when Wade is his primary defender. That could be huge this series.
In the Cavs 15-point win on Feb. 24 Brunson was 6-for-19, Bridges 6-for-17, OG 2-for-9, and KAT 5-for-5. If the Cavs can limit KAT to 5 field goal attempts they’ll be in great shape. Despite Mitch Robinson grabbing 8 offensive rebounds in 19 minutes the Knicks still only managed to score 94 points.
The Knicks are well-rested and have home court advantage, and they are 30-10 at home. The Cavs beat them decisively in Cleveland when both teams had essentially the same personnel they do now. The Knicks were mediocre on the road in the regular season. If the Cavs can win all three at home they just need to steal a win one time in four chances at MSG to advance.
Worse case scenario the Cavs lose but the front office has data from 20 or so playoff games with Harden at point guard to assess what they need to do to improve the team next year.
Injury ReportCLEVELAND
Larry Nance Jr - DOUBTFUL (illness)
NEW YORK
OG Anunoby - PROBABLE (hamstring)