According to Ethan Sands the Heat are the first team in history to win both games as a #10 seed and get into the playoffs. They know how to elevate their game when it counts.
[The Heat] needed to win two road games in the Play-In Tournament to get here, and they did just that, showing similar grit as the team that went from the Play-In to the Finals two years ago. This team was actually better, statistically, than that one. - NBA.com
Their guys have been through things the Cavs players have not been through, and there is no substitute for experience. I think this is the kind of team that could benefit the Cavs as they move forward; playing against Bam Adebayo's physicality and having to deal with Eric Spoelstra as a chess master and a playoff tactician…Chris Fedor
The Heat started the season with Jimmy Butler as their star and leader. Due to injuries and a suspension he played only 25 games in which they went 13-12. He asked to be traded and they moved him at the deadline, getting Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell, and Kyle Anderson. Wiggins is the only starter. They were 6-11 with Wiggins, but managed to win the two play-in games.
The Cavs won the season series 2-1, losing the first game in Miami in December with no Strus or Hunter and with LeVert and Niang still on the team. Butler was +10 for Miami. I don’t consider this game much of a comp for this series - both teams have changed a lot since then.
The Cavs won the next two by 20 and 5 points. In the second game Garland was out and rookie Jayson Tyson started. LeVert was also out. In the third game the Heat were missing Herro, Ware, and Wiggins and the Cavs won in Cleveland by 5 points.
So there really aren’t any regular season games where both teams were similar to the personnel we'll see in this series. I’m reluctant to go into any season stats since Miami’s lineup has changed significantly. But we can look at individual performances.
Tyler Herro has a line of 24/5/5 for the season but he upped it to 28/6/6 against the Cavs on 49% from the field and a blistering 47% on 3’s in two games. He’s coming off a 30/8/7 game against the Hawks after putting 38 points on the Bulls. He and Bam Adebayo are the keys to their offense.
Bam is an 18/10 guy during the season but in two games against the Cavs his line is 24/11/5 on 56% overall and 54% on 3’s. For the season Bam is a 36% shooter from deep but was way better against the Cavs.
Andrew Wiggins averaged 19 ppg during the season and scored 20 in each play-in game.
The other two starters don’t score much; 20-year-old rookie center Kel’el Ware averaged 9.3 points in 20 minutes. Alec Burks, age 33, averaged 7.3 points and only scored 7 in the two play-in games.
The Heat used a 7-man rotation in the play-in with backup point guard Davion Mitchell playing 33 and 40 minutes and averaging 15.5 points and 7 assists. Haywood Highsmith played 18 and 40 minutes, scoring a total of 17 points.
The Heat easily crushed the Bulls so nobody played too many minutes. But in the OT win over the Hawks Adebayo, Wiggins, Herro, Highsmith, and Mitchell played 40-44 minutes each. Ware played 22, Burks and Duncan Robinson played 11 and 10 minutes.
So the Heat will, I assume, have five guys playing almost the entire game with some help from Ware and Burks. Robinson may get more minutes because he hit 50% of his 3’s against the Cavs in the regular season (11-for-22). Robinson averaged 16.7 ppg against the Cavs, who traditionally have had issues with 6’7” three-point shooters. Now that DeAndre Hunter is on the team that might improve.
The Cavs are much, much deeper than the Heat but that might not matter with one or two rest days between each game. The question is whether the Heat will wear down by the 4th quarter as the Cavs come at them in waves.
Offensively the Heat rank 27th in offensive rebound percentage which is great for the Cavs since they have had problems with good offensive rebounding teams.
There are different guys in the NBA that are problematic for the Cavs when it comes to rebounding, when it comes to punishing them, when it comes to just being physical and moving them off of their space. It’s not Bam. It’s guys like Zubac, Sabonis, and Porzingis. This isn’t to say that Bam’s going to have a bad series…but it’s just not the same kinds of problems caused by him as some of these other guys. - Fedor
Evan Mobley during the regular season in 15 minutes of matchup data held Adebayo to 7 of 16 from the field, 43.8%, which is decent because he made only one three-pointer and took three. - Ethan Sands
A huge key to this series will be how well Mobley and Allen can defend Adebayo. The other will be how well Mitchell or Garland or Strus or Okoro can defend Herro.
The Heat are excellent defensively, allowing an average of 110.7 ppg, good for 7th in the NBA. Part of that is they play very slow, ranking 27th in pace, so both teams don’t get a lot of shots. They have to play slow; they have no bench. They’re average in opponents’ effective field goal percentage and turnovers per possession. They are last in block percentage.
This is not a tall team. Ware is 7’0”, but he averages 22 minutes. Bam is the next tallest at 6’9” and when Ware is out he moves to center. Wiggins is a slim 6’7”, 197 pounds and Herro, Burks, and Highsmith are 6’5”. Mitchell is 6’0”. For about half the game they'll have one player over 6'7" on the floor and he's 6'9". Maybe Ware will get more minutes against a team with two bigs like the Cavs.
I think if the Cavs want to play big, I think they can play big better than Miami can. If Miami wants to play small…going away from Jarrett and Evan [together] is a risk to your defense, but it’s less of a risk when that four man is De'Andre Hunter, as opposed to in the past where that four man was Georges Niang or Marcus Morris Sr, so if Miami decides to go a little bit smaller I think the Cavs can do that better than Miami, too. - Fedor
The Heat rank 23rd in defending the rim so I expect the Cavs to take it to the hole as often as possible and also use lobs to their bigs. The Heat cannot afford to get in foul trouble as they have no bench to speak of. If the Cavs are attacking the rim it will be tough for the Heat to stop them. It’s not what they’re good at and they can’t afford for their main guys to pick up fouls. I think this is a huge vulnerability for them.
There are some deficiencies within Miami’s defense when it comes to dealing with everything that they’re going to have to deal with when it comes to the Cavs offense…I think the truth is Miami is going to have a hard time dealing with the Cavs offense. - Fedor
When it comes to the matchup data with Evan Mobley as the offensive player and Bam Adebayo as a defensive player, Bam has matched up with Evan for around 11 and a half minutes and Evan is 6 of 11 from the field and he’s only taken two threes. This is a matchup where Mobley feels like he can go into the chest. - Sands
Bam absolutely cannot afford to get in foul trouble and that will affect the way he plays defense. Same with Herro and Wiggins.
So that’s it. The Cavs should focus their defensive efforts on stopping Herro and Bam, making the other guys beat them. The good news is Miami isn't one of those teams that really attack the offensive glass. On offense the Cavs should attack the rim relentlessly, taking advantage of Miami’s lack of height, worst block percentage in the league, poor rim defense, and the need to avoid excessive fouling.
Injury Report
CLEVELAND
none
MIAMI
Kevin Love - OUT (personal reasons)
Isaiah Stevens - OUT (foot)
Dru Smith - OUT (achilles)
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